The Main Slate on FanDuel is comprised of 10 games and begins at 1:05pm ET.
Steven Matz ($9,600) vs. San Diego Padres
Matz has to be the chalk today. The hapless San Diego Padres boast a 24.3% K-rate against southpaws, and even though the collective power numbers for San Diego (.186 ISO) look great against lefties, gone are lefty-killers Melvin Upton Jr. (.287 ISO vs. LHP) and Matt Kemp (.330 ISO). This is a great matchup for Matz, who opposes Clayton Richard. I do not typically pay for pitching, but Matz sure is shiny at his price tag. I feel like he is $800 under-priced today.
Rick Porcello ($9,400) vs. Arizona
Porcello is 11-0 in 12 starts at Fenway Park this season. The problem is his price tag and the opposing pitcher (Zack Greinke). Still, the home record is sublime, so I felt it worth mentioning. Do with that information what you will. I was not starting Greinke against Boston anyway, so Porcello is just another reason to stay away. And Greinke is reason enough for me to stay away from Porcello...though both pitchers are good enough for me to want to avoid this game completely, for whatever that is worth.
Marcus Stroman ($7,500) vs. Houston
Stroman got roughed up a tad in his last turn against the Royals, but in the start prior to that he twirled a gem against the Astros (7 IP, 1 ER, 13 Ks). Entering Sunday’s matchup, Stroman leads the MLB in ground-ball percentage at 60.3 percent (stat courtesy of MLB.com). Meanwhile, the Astros strikeout 23.9% of the time against RHP, "good" for the third-worst mark in the MLB. Stroman is cheap, at home, and has a good matchup with the Jekyll-and-Hyde Mike Fiers. He is my favorite pitcher of the day.
Cleveland Indians vs. Jered Weaver
The obvious stack. The Indians have some tenacious BvP numbers against Jered Weaver, as evidenced below. I’ll take Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Tyler Naquin for my grouping. I’ll give a nod to the poor BvP totals and leave Kipnis out of things. Sue me. You have to make decisions somehow in this game.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Luis Severino
I feel the same way about Luis Severino as Tywin Lannister once felt about Tyrion...you know, before Tyrion killed him. Anyway, the Yankees apparently agree with me, as they optioned Severino to Triple-A to work on his changeup. Alas, they were forced to call him back up when Nathan Eovaldi got injured. So now we have a guy who is still working on his offspeed stuff at the MLB level taking on a team with some sneaky power against RHP (.182 ISO). In fact, the Rays have hit 120 home runs off of RHP so far in 2016, which ties them for third place with the Cardinals. They trail only the Blue Jays (122) and the Orioles (141) in that regard. If Severino is off of his game (likely) you can expect some balls to leave the yard today. I’ll take Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, and Corey Dickerson.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. LHP Cody Reed
I really wanted to tout Cody Reed, but the guy has been getting Blackwatered at the MLB level this year. He is a rookie pitcher on a bad team, pitching in a hitter’s haven. The Brewers do have the second-highest K-rate in the MLB against LHP (24.3%) this year, but they also have a stellar .349 OBP (3rd), a .329 wOBA (10th), and 39 stolen bases (1st). So there is a template for getting to Cody Reed today. Get on base, steal bases, score runs...rinse, repeat. Reed should be plenty happy to oblige, as RHH make hard contact 40.3% of the time and have a startling .401 wOBA against him. Never fear, though, because lefties have a 35.1% hard contact rate and a healthy .346 wOBA against him. Currently, Milwaukee is my favorite stack of the day. I almost leaned towards the Cincinnati Reds, but Wily Peralta’s velocity was way up in his last turn and I am going to avoid stacking against him just this one time against a mediocre Reds lineup. In summation: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Hernan Perez, and Keon Broxton are my guys.
BvP of Note (good and bad)
Brian McCann - .462 AVG, 26 AB, 3 HR (0 for 6 this season, though).
Lonnie Chisenhall - .368 AVG, 19 AB, 2 HR
Mike Napoli - .344 AVG, 32 AB, 3 HR
Carlos Santana - .556 AVG, 27 AB, 2 HR
Jason Kipnis - .167 AVG, 24 AB, 0 HR
Matt Kemp - .500, 6 AB, 2 HR
A.J. Pierzynski - .700, 10 AB, 2 HR
Anthony Recker - .667, 6 AB, 1 HR
Joey Votto - .385, 26 AB, 1 HR
Brandon Phillips - .200, 20 AB, 0 HR
Zack Cozart - .130, 23 AB, 1 HR
Miguel Cabrera - .714, 7 AB, 2 HR
It is noteworthy that two Braves catchers have solid BvP numbers...perhaps one of them lands in a lineup of mine today. McCann’s numbers are interesting...the overall sample points to him having the edge over Odorizzi, but Odorizzi has silenced him so far this season. Could this be a case of a pitcher turning the corner, or of a hitter on the decline? Finally, two roads named Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli diverged in a wood, and I have no answer to tell you as to which path to travel by--except to try and go with the one less traveled (Napoli?) in your GPPs.
As always, I’ll attempt to share my own lineup in the comments section prior to lock, though I went to a festival with my wife and kids yesterday and missed out on doing that. Here’s hoping today is better. Good luck, champs.