Pitchers to Buy Low for your Second Half Push

Aaron Nola

Nola's recent 5 game stretch since June 11^th @ Washington has been nothing short of a disaster. In his 18 IP, he has posted gruesome 13.50 ERA and he has lasted beyond 4^th inning only once. After his hot start to the season, his slump has been prolonging little longer than what we used to see from any given pitcher, and his owners are probably running out of patience at this point.

It's very difficult for a good pitcher without any specific issue to be this bad for over a month, so it's easy to view his current streak as something more serious than a temporary slump. DON'T BE FOOLED, GAMERS! Nola is simply kind enough to give us another opportunity to buy him for those who missed out on him at the draft day, so take his generosity to strengthen your pitching.

During his bad 5-game stretch, Nola still struck out 10.5 batters / 9 IP, so his swing and miss stuff are still there. He suffered some control issues as he walked 4 batters / 9 IP (which isn't even that ugly), but except the two games against the Twins and the Blue Jays, he only allowed total three walks in his the other three starts. He has been particularly unlucky with BABIP (.515) which has led to a problematic 43.7 % stranded runner rate.

As we all know, a ground ball is the best friend of a pitcher, and Nola's 55.1 GB% is 7^th best in the league. Even during his slump, he actually put up 59 GB%, and therefore he only allowed 3 HR in that span. There are only three other starting pitchers this season with 9+ K/9 and 50+ GB%, and they are Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard, and Clayton Kershaw (these guys are pretty good, just so you know). Nola's season numbers are 9.94 K/9 and 55.1 GB%, and he has put up more impressing 10.5 K/9 and 59.1 GB% in his recent 5 starts. This is a no-brainer primetime buy-low opportunity. You better stock him in your roster now while the window is still open.

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Scott Kazmir

This former first rounder's MLB career has been a true rough ride. He was drafted out of high school and traded to the league's worst team (in terms of popularity, win ratio, and pitcher-friendliness) to serve as a 20-year-old ace (who no one cared). He left the team just before the Rays start to matter in baseball, and he was forced to stay out of the league for 2 years as he struggled mightily as an Angel.

It surely feels like Kazmir already has entered into and exited from our lives more than any other baseball player we know, but he is somehow still only 32 years old. Since he came back to the league as an Indian back in 2013, he followed the league's popular trend of switching the portion of his famous slider to cutter, and he successfully put up three consecutive seasons of FIP under 4.00.

This year, he has been pretty disappointing in his new uniform, and the media even discussed demoting him to AAA in favor of Julio Urias. He isn't the most exciting name to own, and his 4.37 ERA won't cut for most of the managers, but there are many reasons to like him. His current 9.6 K/9 is his personal best since 2008, and there is no indication that he is a different pitcher from his Athletics years. He hasn't suffered any setback in his velocity, and his stuff still gets 10.3% whiff rate. His batted ball profile is very healthy, and he actually even doubled his infield fly rate this year (usually a very good sign). His move from Coliseum to the Dodgers stadium will continue to inflate his HR rate, but his current 14.7% HR/FB has room for a downward correction, and the Dodgers Stadium does offer other pitching friendly features (toughest place to triple up) to limit the runs.

I'm not saying Kazmir can carry your team, but he can't be too expansive at this point. If you need a value pitcher for the rest of the way, give him a look.

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Ian Kennedy

There should be an explanation for the Royals paying 70 million to acquire 4.28 ERA guy's service. Kennedy doesn't look like a successful signing so far, and his .258 BABIP and 5.21 FIP suggests that his owners are even lucky to have his current 4.04 ERA.

His main problem has been his 1.92 HR/9, the worst in the league among the qualified starters. His HR/FB is pretty bad at 16.3%, but the real issue has been his increased fly ball profile. He has been a fly ball pitcher throughout his career, but 48.2 FB% is the highest since he left Bronx.

The high HR is very worrisome, but we have a little puzzle to solve before we judge Kennedy. Despite playing in the stadium with the third lowest HR factor in AL, the Royals have been giving up an unusually high numberer of  HR this year. They have given up the third most HR as a team in AL, and every returning starter (Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, and Chris Young) has been allowing more HR per inning than they did last year.

So the high HR isn't just Kennedy's problem. I'm not sure what causes this issue for the Royals, but we can conjecture that Kennedy's issue could potentially be more to do with environmental than personal.

Apparently, the USC product doesn't seem to have any mechanical issue. His 92 mph fastball velocity is the best in his career, and his zone control (8.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9) is still intact (career 8.4 K/9 3.0 BB/9). His higher fly ball rate can be little alarming, but his infield fly ball rate also has jumped at the same time (7.8% to 12.2%), which could actually benefit his overall numbers.

Can he and the rest of the Royals keep the baseball inside the bay better for the second half? I don't have the answer, but I think he is worth a shot if you can get him for a good price.

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Drew Smyly

Do you remember the time when he was talked up as one of the potential aces of the league? In April, everyone who drafted him probably felt that they found Dallas Keuchel of this year. I was one of those managers. Few months ago, I was too busy rejecting every trade offer thrown at me to keep Smyly in my roster, but well, things have changed since then.

He owns 5.33 ERA, which is 8^th worst in the league. He is also probably one of the most started 5+ ERA pitchers in the Fantasy world (maybe except Francisco Liriano), so if you are Smyly owner, I'm sure your team's ERA will look very ugly at this point (In my rotisserie league, I'm dead last in ERA).

It's tough to love a player with an ability to destroy one team all by himself, but this is probably still little early to give up on the lefty who the Rays got for trading David Price.  His weakness is pretty obvious: He allows way too many HR. His 47.9 FB% is third highest in the league, so we can't expect his long ball problem to fade away anytime soon.

Nevertheless, we at least have to acknowledge his great strike throwing talent. He owns amazing 10.1 K/9 2.2 BB/9 (his K-BB is 8^th best in the league), which is a rare gem to be found at his price. His ERA might not be elite rest of the way, but his current 5.33 is truly unfair, and the number should be adjusted as his abysmal 65.4% stranded runner rate returns normal. With his amazing K-BB, he still can contribute hugely in K and WHIP column if nothing else. He is basically Michael Pineda with the better home field.

More importantly, the Rays will have their superhero, Kevin Kiermaier back in the lineup after the All-Star break, and his return should be a huge break for a fly ball oriented pitcher like Smyly. It's probably not just a coincidence that he put up 7.33 ERA since Kiermaier's injury (pre-injury 3.44). Smyly probably owns the most upside among any 5+ ERA pitcher for the second half, and you should go get him if your team desperately needs a miracle to win the championship.

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Rest of the Season Steamer Projection

Player	SP Rank	IP	W	ERA	WHIP	SO
Aaron Nola	26th	83	5	3.31	1.15	82
Drew Smyly	30th	70	5	3.19	1.15	72
Scott Kazmir	39th	76	5	3.51	1.19	73
Ian Kennedy	41st	93	6	3.8	1.25	89