FanDuel DFS picks for Saturday, July 30

I am going to skip the three game Early Only slate, in part because it is only three games and in part because I was at a concert until 2am this morning. The Main Slate on FanDuel has 11 games and begins at 7:10pm ET.

I was watching CBS this morning with my third cup of coffee when the talking heads told me that the entire country is at risk for thunderstorms today. So make sure you hit up your best weather resources prior to locking in your selections today. For me, that's Kevin Roth on Twitter. But to each his own.

Pitching

I always look to Vegas as a starting point, and today’s heaviest favorites are Scott Kazmir (-237), Josh Tomlin (-180), and Justin Verlander (-150).

Kazmir’s game has the lowest run total (8.0 right now) of that bunch. I do not like his matchup, however. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the second-highest team ISO (.197) against southpaws this season, as well as the third-highest wOBA (.348). Kazmir is theoretically a safe bet to get the win, as the Dodgers bats are heating up and they oppose Braden Shipley, who is fresh off of being smoked for six runs over 5 1/3 IP against the Brewers in his MLB debut.

All that said, I’d rather take a shot on the Dodgers bats than roster Scott Kazmir. The same is true for Tomlin and Verlander. I prefer to get exposure to their team’s offenses against Dillon Overton and Michael Fiers instead of actually rostering the pitchers themselves.

My top GPP options at the moment are Julio Teheran ($8,300) against Philadelphia and Jameson Taillon ($7,400) against Milwaukee.

Julio Teheran is at home and this game total has the lowest run total on the slate at 7.5. It is well known that left-handed bats have been Teheran’s bane, though this season he has righted the ship in that department (.204/.286/.381 slash and .292 wOBA to LHH). At any rate, his primary concern from that side of the plate is Odubel Herrera, who could hit two solo home runs today and Teheran could still go 7IP/2R/7K and grab the win. He opposes Jeremy Hellickson, who has been better than you think this season. Picking either of these pitchers in a GPP is viable strategy, as well as rostering both of them on two-pitcher sites if the price is right. But I am a Teheran-truther, so Teheran it is.

Milwaukee has well-documented struggles with the strikeout, as their 26.1% K-rate against RHP is worst in the MLB. Taillon is a -140 favorite as his Buccos should get to Chase Anderson early and often in this one. Sure, it’s risky. But there are not a ton of cushy pitching options on this slate, so you’ll have to take a chance somewhere. For his modest price, I like Taillon today. There is a solid chance he is pitching with a lead early, and that is what we like to see. He boasts a strong 58.1% ground ball rate to RHH, and he’ll need that to work in his favor today in a hitter’s park. Taillon has been more hittable to LHH, but the only power threat from that side is Kirk Nieuwenhuis (.190 ISO, .325 wOBA). Scooter Gennett (.133 ISO, .308 wOBA) is not what I would call a threat. Taillon has to be considered at his price point today.

Hitting

Again with the Vegas totals, as these offenses are projected to score the most runs today:

TEX vs. Ian Kennedy - 5.29

CLE vs. Dillon Overton - 5.19

MIN vs. Miguel Gonzalez - 4.98

PIT @ Chase Anderson - 4.86

Texas immediately jumps out to me as a team that people may not roster. Ian Kennedy has been a popular GPP play at times this season, so some may look at that scenario and believe that Kennedy can limit the damage. But this is a formidable Texas team in a game with the highest run total of the day (10.0). Kennedy has been homer-prone in his career and has had a forgettable July (0-3 in three starts). He has allowed 2.35 HR/9 and has a 6.17 FIP against LHH this season. Against RHH it’s a 1.78 HR/9 and a 4.59 FIP. I’ll still take Rougned Odor, Ian Desmond, Jurickson Profar, and Nomar Mazara. This is a stack you might want to have multiple entries of, however, as Mitch Moreland, Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo, and even Robinson Chirinos all have power upside in this matchup.

The top stack for me might be the Chicago White Sox. Tommy Milone is not a good pitcher and the White Sox have some right-handed bats capable of doing some damage. Give me Todd Frazier, Timothy Anderson, and Brett Lawrie to start. You could theoretically leave off Jose Abreu, who has a paltry .122 ISO and measly .267 wOBA against RHP this season. But if you leave him off, of course he’ll dong. I will be including him against the soft-tossing lefty pitcher.

The Twins should make for a good smokescreen today, as Miguel Gonzalez is usually an enticing matchup and Milone and the Twins are slight favorites at home. But Gonzalez has gone at least 6IP in all five of his July starts and has a 2.76 ERA over that span. So he’s been on a roll lately. Milone is coming off of a bad start (4ER in 4.2 IP against BOS) and fared poorly a month ago against these same White Sox (5R, 9H, 3.1 IP). As long as Todd Frazier isn’t held out for the second day in a row with flu-like symptoms, I’ll be enjoying some White Sox exposure today.

All that said, Miguel Gonzalez is still Miguel Gonzalez, so by all means fade him in one lineup and target the fire out of him with another lineup.

As always, I’ll attempt to put my own lineup(s) in the comments section and would welcome any dialogue on today’s picks. Good luck today, champs.