FanDuel DFS picks for Sunday, July 3

Yesterday I settled on Aaron Nola instead of Danny Duffy, even though I touted Duffy. Where were you guys to talk me off of the proverbial edge? You can literally see me imploding in the comments section of yesterday’s article. Oh well. I will share my lineup again at the end and welcome you all to talk some sense into me. Note: I have been playing in the Single Entry Series on FanDuel (hosted by RotoGrinders) so the final lineup will reflect that.

Pitching

Jon Lester ($10,600) is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate and theoretically has a tough matchup against Noah Syndergaard. Lester’s actual matchup against the Mets hitters is more fortuitous, though. The Mets have a 91 wRC+ (21st), .302 wOBA (26th), and .150 ISO (20th) against LHPs so far in 2016. I typically avoid pitchers in tough matchups like Lester has against Syndergaard, but I just can’t seem to shake him off right now. He has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball this season. Of the upper-tier options, Lester is my number one choice if I am paying up.

Corey Kluber ($10,500) has a tough matchup against Toronto, who have a 102 wRC+ (9th), .328 wOBA (8th), and .193 ISO (4th) against RHPs in 2016. The Rogers Centre is obviously not an inviting place to pitch, too. Finally, Cleveland’s offense is bottom third in most offensive categories against southpaws, and J.A. Happ is no slouch. Kluber may not be backed by as much offense as "Vegas" believes. I could easily see this as a letdown start and a dreaded no-decision for Kluber. At his price on FanDuel that would be a death knell for your lineups.

Noah Syndergaard ($10,200) has a bone spur in his right elbow so I am treading lightly for the time being. He is GPP-only for me on this slate. The Cubs have a 105 wRC+ (7th), .332 wOBA (7th), and .175 ISO (10th) against RHPs in 2016. This is not a good matchup for Syndergaard, especially against a quality opponent in Lester. You’d be crazy not to have at least one share of Thor at this price, though—the bone spur is definitely scaring me off a little bit, so it will probably scare others as well.

I have ZERO interest in Chris Archer ($9,000) against the Tigers. I may just stack this game and enjoy all the home runs Archer and Mike Pelfrey are going to surrender. The Tigers have a 106 wRC+ (6th), .333 wOBA (6th), and .173 ISO (12th) against RHPs in 2016. Someone is going to do some damage against Archer. My money is boring because it is on Miguel Cabrera to do the honors.

Lucas Giolito ($7,000) has a quality matchup against the Reds if he starts. It appears the Nationals may decide to use Stephen Strasburg, who is recovering from a back strain. Anyway, the Reds have an 80 wRC+ (28th), .298 wOBA (27th), and .164 ISO (13th) against RHPs. Couple that with the Nationals being a very good lefty-hitting team going up against John Lamb, and Giolito is in the conversation for cheap pitching option of the day. If he starts.

***Strasburg is indeed starting. His strikeout upside is so immense that he must be considered the new #1 option ahead of Lester. Did I mention I don't love the pitching options on this slate? I dislike using guys fresh off the DL.***

Michael Wacha ($7,400) is a low-cost option against the Brewers, who have a 90 wRC+ (20th), .315 wOBA (16th), and .153 ISO (18th) against RHPs. Over his last four starts Wacha has a 2.63 ERA (stat courtesy of MLB.com). This would seem like an appropriate place to roster Wacha, if you are into that sort of thing. For only 7.4K with a good chance for a win, I might be...

Hitting

Contrarian Cubs stack for the win?

The Cubs hit right-handed pitching very well (top third in all of the major categories) and there are some good BvP totals in extremely small sample sizes. Kris Bryant and Jason Heyward are both 2 for 3 off of Syndergaard, while Chris Coghlan is 1 for 2 with a home run. I told you the sample was small, okay? Anyway, I think it is okay to throw a Cubs stack out there if you are running multiple lineups given their upside and the bone spur that Syndergaard is currently dealing with. Just make sure to hedge and build a lineup with Syndergaard as well so you get access to both outcomes. I won’t be choosing either route in my single entry contest, though.

Left-handed Tampa Bay Rays and Evan Longoria vs. Mike Pelfrey

This game is at Tropicana Field, otherwise I might go totally crazy with the Rays. Evan Longoria is 2 for 5 with a dinger off of Pelfrey already (small sample size, but still). Logan Morrison has some bad BvP (.083 batting average in 12 AB) and lacks the high ceiling we look for, anyway. Corey Dickerson and Brad Miller are the biggest threats from the left side, and those two are probably where I would go. I am basically fitting whichever left-handed bat I can into my final lineup. That means Dickerson, Miller, and Arcia are all in play for me. Longoria is also in play, but I still prefer the lefty Tampa hitters in the Trop.

The Washington Nationals vs. LHP John Lamb

The Nationals obliterate LHPs, y’all. Their .212 ISO mark is tops in the MLB against southpaws. The only problem is that everyone knows already. Danny Espinosa might be over 20% owned in any format. That dude is on fire. My brain is attempting to become ever more contrarian, though, so I will not be playing Espinosa at his high ownership levels if I can help it. You might consider leaving Daniel Murphy off of your Nationals stack and saving some dough since he has only managed a .165 ISO and two home runs against LHPs so far in 2016. I know that sounds crazy but it would allow you to get in a cost-saving Michael Taylor (.258 ISO, .365 wOBA) or Wilson Ramos (.214 ISO, .328 wOBA) at a bad catcher position.

The St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chase Anderson

Chase Anderson has not been good lately and has a tough matchup against the Cardinals. The Redbirds have a 116 wRC+ (2nd), .345 wOBA (3rd), and .197 ISO (2nd) against RHPs in 2016. I don’t play cash games much, but if I did I think this would be the offense I tried to build around all day.

ANGELS STACK FOR THE WIN

I put it in all capitals because Sean O’Sullivan is terrible. The Angels get a park boost, too (that worked out well in their 21-2 romp last night). FanDuel knows the matchup is juicy, because most of the Angels bats are priced up. Mike Trout ($4,600), Kole Calhoun ($3,900), Albert Pujols ($3,900), and Jefry Marte ($2,200) are my preferred options. No offense to C.J. Cron or Carlos Perez, who went HAM on Saturday night, but I’ll go with the meat of this lineup against O’Sullivan and expect plenty of fireworks early on in this one.

Stud of the Day

What do we do with Chris Archer? We target him, of course! Stack against him? Not me, not in this spot. But pick a guy to rake one (or two) off of him? Absolutely. Miguel Cabrera ($4,100) makes a great one-off play if you are insane enough not to play Albert Pujols against Sean O’Sullivan. Cabrera even had a day of rest on Saturday so he should be fresh for this one. Oh, and he is 4 for 10 with a home run off of Archer already. Team BvP, baby!

Sample Lineup

Michael Wacha, Wilson Ramos, Albert Pujols, Brian Dozier, Jefry Marte, Tim Anderson, Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun, Corey Dickerson