Buy-Low These Studs (If You Can)

Bryce Harper

Regardless of how badly he plays, I thought Bryce Harper never could be in this buy-low conversation. Well, I underestimated his floor. After hitting miserable .177 in July, his season slash has reached Adam Dunn-ish .237/.377/.453, and a lot of owners are ready to give up on him (By the way, Adam Dunn's career slash is .237/.364/.490).

He is at least leading the NL in walks, but none of us drafted him to get on bases. His problem this year has been his miserable .235 BABIP (career .317). He is hitting career-low 14% line drives so far, but there are some silver linings, too.

He actually made a progress this year in K% by cutting it down to 16.7% (career 20.3%). He achieved that by making more contacts on less swings, and those usually should lead to a better result. In this case, his extra contracts simply increased his infield fly ratio. In summary, he is showing the best plate discipline and bat control, but he hasn't been producing numbers. I have to say this is more to do with luck than anything else.

It's understandable that people are mad at him, but we are talking about one of the most talented hitters of our time. Maybe his amazing 2015 season isn't something repeatable every year, but he is still displaying enormous power, and his 15 SB indicates that there is nothing wrong with his body. There is actually a good chance that his improved plate discipline will lead to a better result as soon as this season.

Steamer Rest of the Season Projection

_

_

Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon is currently hitting .296/.358/.456, so he may not perfectly fit into this bill, but his owners could be little more willing to move him at this time. His 12 HR in 89 games looks fine, but he hit 0 HR in July, and his BA also suffered as he hit .136 in his last 6 games.

This is the perfect timing for his slump as his owners could have been frustrated with him all year long as he didn't attempt too many steals after getting 43 bags a year ago. He is also on the trading block, which could generate some fears, too.

Obviously he would no longer be an elite fantasy option once he climbs down the mountain, but the current trade market isn't really working on the Rockies' favor. Many of those teams in need of outfielders already have found cheaper solutions (Blue Jays: Melvin Upton, Giants: Eduardo Nunez, Nationals: Trea Turner), and the Indians are more looking for a slugging type corner outfielder (e.g. Jay Bruce) as Tyler Naquin successfully settled downs as their CF. The only fit for Blackmon at this point is the Astros, but they are still paying 9 million to Carlos Gomez, and the team doesn't seem to be as aggressive as last year.

Anyway, Blackmon is still controlled for two more years after this season, so there is no reason for the Rockies to get rid of him so quickly when the market isn't calling for the outfielders. He also struggled little bit in July, but he stole 6 bags. He hit 6 HR in each of May and June, when he totaled only 5 steals, so his increased steal numbers is an indication of his willingness to run more when he can't create bases with his power. He is also two-month removed from his turf toe injury, so there is good chance that his steal numbers will bounce back for the last two months of the season. His owners won't give him up for nothing, but I won't be afraid to pay up little to acquire an elite 5-cat performer with a multi-position eligibility.

Steamer Rest of the Season Projection

_

_

Chris Davis

For Crush, there is only one number we have to be concerned: His HR/FB. He has been struck out the most in the AL, but that's just a part of the package, not a new problem. His low .227 BA is mostly a result from his fly balls getting caught in front of the fence. Once he starts to clear the wall, his BABIP, BA, and ISO will all be recovered pretty quickly.

His current HR/FB is still ridiculous 21.6%, but it's far below 29.4% that he put up last year. When he doesn't hit fly balls, he pretty much get struck out, so HR/FB needs to go higher for Crush to start returning some dividends to his owners.

How do we know if he can recover that number? We don't. There is no clear way to tell if he is just having a prolonged slump or a power outage from aging. Since 2012, however, his HR/FB stayed above 25% except 2014 when he had the PED issue. We also have learned from the history that the most fly ball hitting sluggers' power tools don't disappear that quickly (Examples: David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Albert Pujols). Most of these guys started showing some signs of deteriorations in other areas before they finally stopped hitting HR. Crush doesn't seem to be doing anything differently so far this year, so it's very unlikely that he is out of gas already at age 30.

Last year, he hit .235 with 19 HR during the 1^st half, but he went on to tear up the baseball in the 2^nd half as he slugged 28 HR with .298. I am not trying to claim that "he is a 2^nd half guy." Even this year, however, his monthly HR goes 7, 3, 9, and 3. He is simply a really streaky hitter, and he still has enough time to get hot for the rest of the season. Moreover, he only needs to fix one thing, power. How easy is that?

Steamer Rest of the Season Projection