The Rebuild Dilemma: Having too many good prospects

I have written here on many occasions about my decision to rebuild in one of my NL only keeper leagues. It wasn’t an easy decision, but I decided entering the 2016 season with a rebuilt roster chock full of good prospects was better than entering the season with a solid rotation to build around and little offense available in the draft. I think I made the right decision as the prospects I traded for and drafted have, on the whole, performed pretty well this season.

So, what is my dilemma? I have too many prospects (15) that I want to keep, and the farm rules in our league state that you cannot keep more than five prospects on draft day. My hope is that several of them get promoted to the big leagues later this season or out of spring training.

Let’s take a look at my roster of prospects, with my thoughts on who could/should make it to the big leagues either this season or out of spring training. First, the list of players who I think will see time in the big leagues this season, and who should form the core of my keeper list heading into my 2017 draft:

I think there is no question that Giolito, J.P.Crawford and Nick Williams are in the big leagues to end the season and, in turn, will be on the 25 man roster on their respective teams come Opening Day 2017. Giolito was sent back down to Triple A after making two starts in the big leagues. He showed that he is ready for the big leagues with his performance in Double A after making some mechanical adjustments to his delivery.

Crawford initially struggled at the plate after his promotion to Triple A, but has since hit very well over the last month or so. Here is more from Matt Winkelman from The Good Phight and Phillies Minor Thoughts:

J.P. Crawford last 30 days 28 G .345/.400/.469

— Matt Winkelman (@Matt_Winkelman) July 11, 2016

Williams has had his run ins with the Phillies Triple A manager this season, but, overall, is having a very good season at the plate. His walk rate has ticked up and he is hitting for a solid average with some power as well. He should be in the Phillies outfield sometime this season.

The Braves moved Ozhaino Albies down to Double A to play with his future double play partner Dansby Swanson, and all he has done is hit since he moved down a level. I think we will see both Albies and Swanson called up together sometime in August, if not sooner.

So, the real question for me is how long will the Rockies keep David Dahl in Triple A. Dahl, now healthy, has improved across the board this season, hitting .278-.367-.500 with 13 home runs, 54 runs scored, 45 RBI and 16 stolen bases in 332 plate appearances at Double A. He has been on fire since his promotion to Triple A, hitting .500-.536-.846 with 2 home runs, 6 runs scored, and 5 RBI in 28 plate appearances. The Rockies could make both Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon available in a trade this month, so he could get the call up should one, or both, get dealt.

So, assuming the five guys above make the majors this season, here is how I would rank the rest of the prospects on my roster. Keep in mind I can only keep five prospects before our 2017 draft.

I don't have to tell you how good Robles is. We know the potential. Let's move on.

I admit I have a man crush on both Cody Bellinger and Rhys Hoskins. Bellinger has gold glove potential at first base, and is making strides at the plate facing advanced pitching in Double A. Oh yeah, along with teammate Alex Verdugo, he is one of the youngest hitters in the Texas League this season.

Hoskins is proving that the power he showed in the lower minors was no mirage, as he leads the minors in home runs right now with 25 long balls. Hoskins is hitting .287-.349-.573 with 25 home runs, 64 runs scored and 83 RBI in 375 plate appearances, and it is just a matter of time before he gets promoted to Triple A. My dilemma is this - could he be the Phillies starting first baseman out of spring training next season? I doubt it, but he has nothing left to prove in AA, and we should learn whether he can hit the advanced breaking pitches he will see in Triple A in due time.

Here is more from Winkelman on Hoskins:

Rhys Hoskins did not record his first multi hit game until April 23, from then to yesterday he is batting .302/.365/.612 (71 Games)

— Matt Winkelman (@Matt_Winkelman) July 11, 2016

Like Hoskins, Tapia is answering his critics by leading the Eastern League in hitting right now, as he is hitting .337-.381-.463 with 6 home runs, 63 runs scored, 27 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 27 attempts, so he is going to have to improve his base running and ability to read pitchers. I think he also deserves a promotion to Triple A based on his performance at the dish this season. Chris Crawford from Baseball Prospectus thinks Tapia will be the Rockies best hitting outfielder once he gets the call.

Ok, so, right or wrong, I rank these four prospects 1-4 among my 10 remaining prospect keepers. After the first four, I ranked Phillies catching prospect Jorge Alfaro at #5 based on a few things. One, he is a catcher. Two, he is a catcher with power. Three, he is a catcher with power, and SHOULD be the Phillies catcher of the future. I think I read somewhere that his defense has improved. Can someone back that claim up? So, he is my # ranked keeper RIGHT NOW.

All that could change in the second half, as I like Brewers outfield prospect Brett Phillips and Dodgers outfielder Alex Verdugo, and could see either of them ranked in my top 5 farm keepers by the end of the season.

Of the remaining three prospects, Diaz is the one who REALLY intrigues me, as he is probably a future second baseman, and he has a solid hit tool and hits for power. Add in the fact that he will hit in the launching pad called Miller Park, and he could be a very valuable fantasy asset in a few seasons.

Eddy Julio Martinez has a very high ceiling and a very low floor, but has started to turn his first season in professional ball around over the last month or so, but he is too far away and will more than likely be a trade chop for me in the offseason.

Speaking of trade chips, all of these players are trade chips if it means I can bring back a cheap big league hitter,  ace starting pitcher or closer. And my plan is to begin making offers once the regular season is over. Or possibly sooner. I have begun to make a mental list of trade targets in the offseason, but my aggressiveness in the trade market will be tempered a bit if a few of these prospects make it to the big leagues in 2016.

Who would you keep among the remaining 10 prospects? Who would you trade? Let's discuss in the comments section below.