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FanDuel DFS picks for Sunday, July 10

Heath takes a look at the Main Slate on FanDuel.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Just set yesterday’s lineup on fire. That performance was so awful it was worthy of the late King Joffrey’s nameday tournament. We will not speak of it anymore. I am referring, of course, to the "placeholder" lineup I linked in yesterday’s comments section. I got caught with my pants down and mistakenly believed lineup lock was at 2:30pm instead of 2:10pm. So it goes. The lineup I offered in the article strolled in at a lame 138.5 FDP. Tyler Naquin’s absence from the Cleveland lineup against the lefty was problematic. That number would have barely let you cash in the low-level Sac Fly yesterday. We can do better than that.

Today’s Main Slate on FanDuel is comprised of 11 games and begins at 1:07pm ET. Make sure you check those lineup cards and the weather.


Carlos Carrasco ($10,300) vs. New York Yankees

Carrasco gives up 38.8% hard contact to left-handed hitters, which is a disturbing number when you consider that the Yankees boast a few lefties at the top of their lineup. However, the Yankees make hard contact only 27.3% of the time against right-handed pitching, which ranks them 29th out of 30 MLB teams (yes, the Braves are 30th). The Yankees have a wRC+ of 88 (24th) and a .150 ISO (21st) against RHPs. Carrasco is striking out batters at a 24.4% K-rate against LHH and a 25.7% K-rate against RHH. His ground ball rates to both handedness of hitter are over the 50% threshold. He is the mostly costly option of the day for a reason.

Dallas Keuchel ($8,900) vs. Oakland Athletics

Dallas Keuchel isn’t quite the slam-dunk play today that Carlos Martinez was for the same price yesterday. But he has been recapturing some of his Cy Young form lately. Peep the game log, if you will: 42, 36, 28, 33, 30, 34, 27, 42. That gets us all the way back to May 28th. Sure, the ceiling isn’t there with Keuchel yet, but there appears to be a pretty solid floor. The Athletics are 16th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+ against southpaws this year, but they do rank 8th in ISO (.177). So there is some pop in those bats. However, the As are making hard contact against LHPs only 28.6% of the time, which is "good" for 26th out of 30 MLB teams. Oakland’s team also has middling ground ball and fly ball rates, so it follows that Keuchel’s stellar ground ball rates (62.2% to LHH, 56.1% to RHH) may win out. Keuchel has had some trouble with RHH in 2016, but he has been far better against them at home (65.6% GB rate, only 27.8% hard, and a 21.5% K-rate). When Keuchel has been touched up for home runs at home, it has actually been to left-handed bats. I will not let a pair of slightly above average lefties scare me away from taking a chance on a guy with Keuchel’s ceiling.


Toronto Blue Jays vs. Anibal Sanchez

If the Blue Jays don’t light Anibal Sanchez up like a Christmas tree, then I am hanging up my cleats via Twitter a la Marshawn Lynch. This stack will be chalky, and that chalk should taste good. Sanchez allows a staggering 2.21 HR/9 to RHH, and he does not strike them out often as his paltry 15.1% K-rate shows. Those are not the sort of numbers one wants to bring into the Rogers Centre to face Josh Donaldson ($5,000) and Edwin Encarnacion ($4,500). Both have double-dong upside today. I am not as interested in Troy Tulowitzki ($3,200) but he is definitely in play in this matchup. If you choose another righty make it Devon Travis (131 wRC+, .240 ISO) instead of Kevin Pillar (78wRC+, .294 wOBA, 26.5% hard). And sure, Michael Saunders (143 wRC+, .236 ISO) is in play as well. It's Anibal Sanchez...almost all of these bats are in play. Justin Smoak! Don't forget about him, either (100 wRC+, .201 ISO).

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tim Lincecum

More chalk. Tim Lincecum does not appear to belong in the big leagues at the moment, not after surrendering 25 hits and 14 runs over his last 12 innings (stat courtesy of Lincecum also has the second-highest walk rate on this slate at 11.1%, which could be problematic with all those right-handed power bats in Baltimore. The Orioles let me down Saturday, but this is a case of going right back to them again. Lincecum’s K-rates should stabilize somewhere in the high teens (if he is lucky) and if recent trends continue you are going to want right-handed hitters against him. Lincecum allowed 40.3% hard contact and had a 5.02 FIP against RHH in 2015. He hasn’t been good against lefties either, so I wouldn’t leave Chris Davis out of my stack. All of the usual suspects are in play for the Orioles. Especially Mark Trumbo ($3,400) at his bargain-bin price. I cannot believe he is priced so cheaply.

Chicago Cubs vs. LHP Jon Niese

Now here is where I assume we can make some money. I imagine everyone will be "on" Baltimore tomorrow and the two big corner infielders for Toronto will also be popular. The Cubs present a great chance to be different and still have a high ceiling, however. Jon Niese has a 15.0% K-rate, which is terrible and second-worst on the slate (Zach Eflin has the honors of being numero uno at 12.2%). Anyway, Niese will face a Cubs team that ranks 4th in wRC+ (118), 3rd in wOBA (.351), and 2nd in ISO (.199) against southpaws. This is a nightmarish matchup for Niese and the only reason not to like Chicago is the cavernous confines of PNC Park. That locale will drive plenty of people away. I will be looking to roster Anthony Rizzo (110 wRC+, .235 ISO), Kris Bryant (165 wRC+, .370 ISO), Javier Baez (183 wRC+, .271 ISO), and Ben Zobrist (133 wRC+, .165 ISO). I would swap Zobrist for Willson Contreras (138 wRC+, .200 ISO) if it worked out better for whatever lineup I was building.

If I had to rank the stacks in order of awesomeness, I think I would go with BAL, CHC, TOR.

I will plan to work out a lineup or two in time for lock and post mine in the comments. I would love to hear any thoughts anyone else has on the slate. You can comment or find me on Twitter at @HeathCapps. Good luck today, champs.