My previous sample lineup scored 117.5 FDP, which just isn't good enough. Matt Wieters getting the day off did not help matters, but I pen these night before each slate so those things are bound to happen. In real life I would have switched to another cheap catcher, but that probably wouldn't have moved the needle much. Oh well. Onward and upward.
Friendly reminder to check lineup cards and the weather prior to lock. Crazy things can happen. Now let's chug some coffee and get to Sunday's slate on FanDuel.
Jake Arrieta ($12,100) vs. WAS
I have to think Arrieta is below the Kershaw 13K price point due to his K/9, which is only 7.74 so far this season--down from 9.28 K/9 in 2015. Still, Arrieta is generating more soft contact than usual in 2016 (26% compared to 22.8% in 2015) and more ground balls (58.3% compared to a career 48.2% GB%). More grounders, more soft contact, and a solid K/9 is still pretty darn good. Also, as of right now the wind is scheduled to blow in from left center at anywhere from 12 to 22 mph. That is just icing on the proverbial cake. Always check the wind before a Cubs game, as it can change in an instant. But right now Arrieta looks like the cash game lock of the day.
Chris Tillman ($7,700) vs. OAK
This is a tourney play for me, but Tillman has actually been pretty consistent so far this year. He had one tough outing at Texas, but other than that has been pretty solid. He struck out nine batters in each of his last two turns, amassing 57 and 59 FDP in those two games. Today he gets the Athletics, who he matches up well against. Josh Reddick and Stephen Vogt are a combined 0 for 13 against him, and those are two of the most feared hitters in the Oakland lineup. Tillman has traditionally allowed more power numbers to right-handed hitters, which would seem to be problematic against Oakland. However, so far in 2016 he has reversed that trend, as RHBs have managed a pitiful .167/.250/.241 slash and .228 wOBA against him. Left-handed hitters aren't blowing him up, either (.315 wOBA) and you have the fact that these two teams just played a double-header yesterday. The pitchers are on normal rest, while the hitters may be slightly more fatigued than normal. I'll have at least one share of Tillman in my GPPs today.
Baltimore RHBs and Chris Davis ($3,600) vs. Kendall Graveman
I love me some Manny Machado today, despite the potential fatigue factor. Kendall Graveman is a reverse splits pitcher and Machado excels in the RvR matchup. So far in 2016, Graveman has allowed a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters, compared to a league-average .301 mark to left-handed hitters. Machado has a career .356 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against RHPs. The stars are aligned for him today.
Mark Trumbo ($3,600) historically hits southpaws better than same-handed pitchers, but in 2016 he seems to have figured RHPs out, at least through this early juncture of the season. Trumbo is slashing .360/.415/.507 with a .403 wOBA and a 164 wRC+ against RHPs in 2016. He is only managing a .147 ISO, though, compared to an epic .533 ISO against southpaws. But I still like the play against a reverse splits pitcher in a hitter's park--especially if you stack the Orioles up today.
I wouldn't love leaving Chris Davis out of my Baltimore stack, as he just hit a home run yesterday and might be awakening from his recent slump. But if you decide to roll with Tillman in a GPP, maybe it makes sense to have the three big right-handed bats in Machado, Trumbo, and Schoop instead. Always check the lineup card for a potential curveball and go from there. I do have another idea for first base today and love the contrarian life, so I may have one Baltimore lineup that leaves Crush out.
Boston RHBs vs. Luis Severino
Most are going to target David Ortiz, but you should consider Hanley Ramirez ($3,600) in tournaments today. Any time there are two first basemen on the same team, the lesser one is likely to be under-owned. And Yankee Stadium is well-known for the short right field porch, which makes left-handed hitters enticing. I would never say Big Papi is a BAD play, because that would be ludicrous. I rostered him on Friday and enjoyed my home run, after all. But Severino has been lit up by same-handed hitters in 2016. RHBs have a .412/.434/.725 slash and .494 wOBA against him so far. He is allowing 3.72 HR/9 to RHBs and only striking out RHBs 13.2% of the time. Against RHBs his WHIP is 2.38 and his xFIP is 4.01. You get the idea. RHBs are torturing him so far in 2016. Severino has actually fared well against left-handed hitters, allowing a slash of .267/.302/.300 and a .263 wOBA. Unfortunately for him, the Boston lineup card will be littered with right-handed bats today. They are all in play for me today.
Stud of the Day
I'm going to stray away from Machado as my stud due to the possible fatigue factor after a double-header yesterday. But I still like him as a one-off play or in a mini-BAL stack. I do like Tillman a lot in that game and think the Orioles find a way to get to Graveman. But I think I'm going with Hanley Ramirez as my stud of the day. Rostering Tillman as my SP in a GPP allows me to load up on Boston RHBs, and Hanley is my way to be contrarian by fading Ortiz.
Tillman, Wieters, Ramirez, Pedroia, Machado, Bogaerts, Betts, Trumbo, Dickerson