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2016 Fantasy Football Dynasty Quarterback Rankings

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Robert has those of you in Dynasty Fantasy Football leagues covered starting with his Dynasty QB Rankings.

NFL: NFC Divisional-Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Wilson working hard for that #1 spot
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past couple of years I have been posting my articles and rankings for season long leagues. This year with some time before the training camps start, I figured I would post my Dynasty rankings, starting with the Quarterback position. If you want to see rankings that pertain only to the 2016 season, checkout these rankings from a fellow faketeams writer. With these rankings, I will be splitting players up into tiers, as that gives an even clearer picture as to how I value each of these players. As you will see, the rankings of some players may be fluid depending upon what the current state of your team is.

For the purpose of these rankings, I choose to go with what I would do if this was a team that was being drafted for a new Dynasty league. The players will be listed by tiers with current team, and age they will be at the start of the 2016 season. After that, I will breakdown each of the tiers. Now let's take a look at my Dynasty QB rankings.

Tier One:

1. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Age 27

2. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, Age 27

3. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, Age 26

4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers, Age 32

There is a lot of discussion as to who should be number one on this list. While for 2016 I would rather have Cam Newton, Wilson provides the safer option of all of the these players. He has played in all 16 games every season, has consistently improved every year, and his coach is letting him loose as the years go by. When you are debating between who the top guys should be for your rankings, you have to nitpick every detail to be able to separate the players. The biggest knack that I have against Newton is his health. While he has only missed two games in his entire career, his style of play does lend itself to him breaking down at an earlier age compared to the other people in this tier with him. When Wilson runs with the ball, he is not trying to run the defenders over, rather he is trying to avoid contact. This I believe sets Wilson up a little bit better to last as an elite talent for a little bit longer then Newton will.

Luck would have been number one for me on this list last year, but the injury that he suffered, along with some less then elite play, has him at number three on this list. While he is the youngest of the four in the first tier, the fact that he only played in 7 games last year does hurt him. While I am sure that he will bounce back to being a top level QB in 2016, the safety of Wilson and Newton have them just beating him out in the rankings.

Rodgers is only fourth because of his age. The fact that he is 5-6 years older than the other 3 players in this elite tier is the only reason he is behind them. I expect Rodgers to play until he is 40, and still be at a relatively high level at that age as well, but that only gives him about 8 more years, compared to the other three having over a decade more left in their careers.

Tier Two:

5. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Age 24

6. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Age 22

7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers, Age 34

8. Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Age 39

9. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints, Age 37

This is the spot where you start to notice team construction can play a huge factor in where these players would slot in the rankings. If you were competing right now for a title, you want to move Bortles and Winston down behind the three older statesmen in this tier. Since I decided to use a new dynasty team as my baseline for my rankings, I view the 15+ years that you will get out of Bortles and Winston worth the slightly less production you will get over the next couple of years over the 3-7 years the other three guys have left in their careers.

I deliberated between Bortles and Winston for a long time before I felt that Bortles barely edges him out. Because we have seen Bortles put together a great fantasy season together already, he gets the nod. I have a feeling though that by the end of the year I may have these two guys switched if Winston performs at a level that is similar to the breakout year Bortles saw last year.

The last three guys are pretty much just sorted by the amount of time I think they have left in the NFL. Roethlisberger I feel has about seven years of great production left in him. Tom Brady has four years left on his contract, and I think he plays all four years out and then calls it a career. Brees is the biggest wildcard of the group, because there is a chance that he could retire after this season if things don't go correctly with his contract negotiations. That is a slim possibility, but one that could happen. I think Brees does sign a two year extension though, giving him three more years left.

Tier Three:

10. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions, Age 28

11. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders, Age 25

12. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans, Age 22

13. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals, Age 28

14. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins, Age 28

15. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills, Age 27

While the QB position is deep for season long leagues, I don't think you can take that same view for a dynasty league. I see a significant drop off in security from the QB position from tier two to three. Yes these six QB's are all 28 or younger, but do you really have the utmost confidence for all of them to perform at as high of a level as any of the guys who are ranked above them?

Stafford and Carr represent the volume based passers. Stafford will always find himself in or around the top 12 every year due to the fact that he is asked to throw the ball 600 times a year. The loss of Calvin Johnson does hurt him though, as if Johnson hadn't retired, Stafford would have been someone who would be included in the second tier easily. Carr made significant strides in his second year, but the question still remains, how high is his ceiling? I think Carr doesn't have as high of a ceiling as many people might think, as I don't know how many years this guy can finish as a top 5 QB. The floor though is like Stafford in that he should always be putting up numbers due to the volume he is asked to throw the ball.

It may seem like Mariota is ranked low here at number 12. This is the one guy I know I could easily be way off on at the end of the year, but look at what they are trying to build on offense. They went out and not only traded for DeMarco Murray, they also drafted Derrick Henry. Are those the moves of a team that is looking to let Mariota have free reigns of the offense yet? I think the upside is still there, but his downside is pretty significant, as he poses more of an injury risk over any of the other players that are ranked within the top 15.

Dalton is the ultimate floor play. Every year you don't expect him to play well, yet there he went again last year providing top 12 stats before the thumb injury trying to make a tackle. I think the best is actually yet to come for Dalton, as we have not yet witnessed a year where he has had all of his weapons at his disposal for an entire year. Cousins and Taylor represent the young QB's who may have cemented themselves as quality top 12 QB's every year, or 2015 was just an aberration for them. I tend to believe that they will be able to continue play similar to what they provided last year, but the fact that they may just be one-year wonders does push them below Dalton for the time being.

Tier Four:

16. Eli Manning, New York Giants, Age 35

17. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, Age 34

18. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals, Age 36

This one will be quick. All three of these guys are on the older end, but can still provide some solid production in the meantime. Carson Palmer is the best of these three, but his injury history is the reason he is actually last of these three. The Giants did more for Manning in the offseason by drafting Sterling Shepard, giving me confidence that he still has some great years left in him. Rivers on the other hand, didn't have much of an addition to his team, other then Travis Benjamin and Hunter Henry. By the time that Henry is ready to make a meaningful impact, I suspect that Rivers may no longer be the QB for the Chargers.

Tier Five:

19. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings, Age 23

20. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles, Age 23

21. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams, Age 21

22. Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans, Age 25

23. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins, Age 28

24. Paxton Lynch, Denver Broncos, Age 22

This is the feeling lucky tier. The only QB that has proven to be capable of producing a top 12 season is Ryan Tannehill. Bridgewater has the most talent of the QB's on this list, but he has to wait until Adrian Peterson is no longer on the Vikings to show that talent. I think that may be two years away, which isn't all that bad considering Laquon Treadwell figures to be ready to take the league by storm by that point.

Wentz vs. Goff I went over in my first round recap after the draft, so I won't go into much detail here. I think Wentz has the greater long-term upside, and Goff really is going to be unusable in the short-term anyways, so Wentz is higher.

Osweiler is a big question mark for me in Houston. I know the team thinks they are putting together a great collection of skill position players for him to use, but I really only see DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller. Lynch is another guy I covered in my first round recap, but he is a raw guy who may not even start this year. I want to compare him to someone, but the guy I see as a comparison is the guy I have directly above him, Ryan Tannehill. If that is my comp, and really he needs some work to reach that, Lynch can't be seen as being above Tannehill yet, even given the 6 years of difference in age.

Tier Six:

25. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, Age 36

26. Robert Griffin III, Cleveland Browns, Age 26

27. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, Age 31

28. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears, Age 33

29. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens, Age 31

30. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs, Age 32

31. Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles, Age 28

32. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers, Age 28

Meh. That can about sum up this tier. Romo may be out of the league because of his injuries in a year or two, and it is no certainty that he is going to be able to put together one more great season. RGIII is currently in line to be the starter for the Browns and is still only 26 years old. This is effectively his last chance to show that he is a starting caliber NFL QB, otherwise after this year he may find himself as a career backup. The upside however is superior to the rest of the guys in this tier that I feel putting him below them wouldn't do his upside justice.

The next six guys are really interchangeable. Ryan, Cutler, Flacco, and Smith are the unsexy QB's who will give you close to top 20 production, but not much more then that. Bradford is a huge question mark, as we don't know where he will be in two years, or even if he will be starting in two years either. If he does put some of that talent together though, he could find himself with another job in two years, but don't bank on it. Kaepernick has shown that he has an inability to go through his progressions, as well as throw the ball with some touch. He is similar to RGIII in that he has about one last shot to prove he is a starting caliber QB, but I feel his leash is a lot shorter with Gabbert actually looking servicable for the back half of last season

Tier Seven:

33. Christian Hackenberg, New York Jets, Age 21

34. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, Age 23

35. Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots, Age 24

36. Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco 49ers, Age 26

37. Mark Sanchez, Denver Broncos, Age 29

38. Ryan Fitzpatrick, New York Jets, Age 33

39. AJ McCarron, Cincinnati Bengals, Age 25

40. Geno Smith, New York Jets, Age 25

The backup Quarterback tier. There are only three guys in this tier who may start this year, and a max of two of them can start at once. Mark Sanchez I think will be the starting QB for the Broncos in 2016, but with some of the reports out of Denver being positive towards Lynch, that may be in question now. The other starting QB in this tier is whoever starts for the Jets. I believe that Fitzpatrick will sign a short one or two year deal with the Jets, but even then we don't know if he is going to be able to replicate the stats he did in 2015. The rest are just my personal preference based upon the talent level, not situation, of each of the young backup QB's.

And that does it for my Dynasty Quarterback rankings. My goal is to post one position a week, so look for my Running Back rankings to come soon.