Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
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Hitting: lefty mashers
The Blue Jays, notorious for their destruction of left handed pitching, face Martin Perez, a below average lefty. They get the matchup at home in the Rogers Centre, an excellent park for offense. Josh Donaldson ($4,800) and Jose Bautista ($4,100) are the biggest lefty mashers in the Blue Jays lineup; Donaldson has hit them to an incredible 198 wRC+ and .374 ISO since the start of 2014, with Bautista at a 163 wRC+ and .250 ISO. Edwin Encarnacion ($3,300) is modestly priced, and has hit LHP to a 135 wRC+ and .224 ISO since 2014. Catcher Russell Martin ($2,200) has well above average production for a catcher with a 131 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs LHP as a Blue Jay. Getting these four guys into a lineup is a good base to work with for offense.
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) has destroyed LHP in his career; he's hit them to an MLB leading 199 wRC+ and .384 ISO since 2014, comparable to Donaldson's numbers against lefties. He faces the struggling Patrick Corbin, who is not missing bats in 2016 and has been very home run prone. Corbin's strikeout rate is down to 14% this year, well below average, and his swinging strike rate has fallen from 10.8% last year to just 7.7% this year.
A cheaper and probably lower owned option than Donaldson is Evan Longoria ($3,100) , who faces LHP Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has performed horribly in 2016 to a 5.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP after battling a left hand issue, and his struggles extend to the second half of last season. Longoria has hit LHP to a 145 wRC+ and .207 ISO since 2014. Until Kazmir proves he's healthy, I feel comfortable targeting hitters facing him.
Playing the Blue Jays and Stanton will be costly, so salary relief options are needed. I am targeting either Colin McHugh ($7,700) vs the Twins or Matt Moore ($7,600) vs the Dodgers today. McHugh's peripherals are far better than his ERA and he faces a Twins lineup with a bottom third K% vs RHP and a below average wRC+. Moore has always been a talented pitcher and appears to be putting things together at the MLB level this year. Moore has had a bump in his strikeout rate, up to 27%, on the back of an increase in swinging strikes, up to 11.7%. He has pitched 6 or more innings in 4 out of 5 starts this year and owns a 3.66 ERA with a 3.55 FIP. Sample sizes are small in the beginning of May, but the Dodgers have been below average vs lefties this year with a 78 wRC+ and .138 ISO (although this might have something to do with facing Madison Bumgarner twice already). ISO does stabilize in that sample size, though, and their .138 team ISO vs LHP is below average.
With McHugh or Moore at the pitcher slot, a fantasy owner can fit the 4 Blue Jays hitters above into a lineup, along with Stanton. This leaves 3 spots, where a fantasy owner will need to find some value. This can be accomplished by checking the lineup slots shortly before lock and picking punt plays in decent matchups hitting at the top of a lineup.
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