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According to some research done over at Baseball Prospectus, strikeout rate stabilizes for pitchers around 70 batters faced. Now the first week into May, most starting pitchers have crossed into that threshold. Here is a look at the top 100 starting pitchers in strikeout rate as of May 2 and their differentials from last season:
Pitcher |
K% |
Differential |
Noah Syndergaard |
34.4% |
+8.7% |
Jose Fernandez |
33.6% |
+3.8% |
Clayton Kershaw |
32.0% |
-1.8% |
Drew Smyly |
32.0% |
+4.0% |
Vincent Velasquez |
32.0% |
+7.9% |
David Price |
30.6% |
+5.3% |
Drew Pomeranz |
30.5% |
+10% |
Rich Hill |
30.4% |
-3.6% |
Chris Archer |
29.5% |
+0.5% |
Stephen Strasburg |
29.2% |
-0.4% |
Aaron Nola |
29.1% |
+7.8% |
Danny Salazar |
29.1% |
+3.3% |
Madison Bumgarner |
28.7% |
+1.9% |
Rick Porcello |
28.1% |
+8.9% |
Nathan Eovaldi |
28.0% |
+10% |
Matt Moore |
27.1% |
+10.5% |
Jamie Garcia |
26.9% |
+7.9% |
Jose Quintana |
26.5% |
+5% |
Juan Nicasio |
26.4% |
+1.4% |
Corey Kluber |
26.1% |
-1.6% |
Jon Lester |
25.8% |
+0.8% |
Jeremy Hellickson |
25.7% |
+6.7% |
Adam Conley |
25.5% |
+4.5% |
Jerad Eickhoff |
25.2% |
+1.1% |
Max Scherzer |
25.2% |
-5.5% |
Justin Verlander |
25.0% |
+3.9% |
Jake Arrieta |
24.8% |
-2.7% |
Gio Gonzalez |
24.3% |
+2.0% |
Chris Tillman |
24.2% |
+8% |
Michael Pineda |
24.2% |
+0.8% |
Taijuan Walker |
23.8% |
+3.1% |
Jason Hammel |
23.7% |
-0.5% |
Raisel Iglesias |
23.6% |
-2.7% |
Chris Sale |
23.5% |
-8.9% |
Tanner Roark |
23.4% |
+8.4% |
Chris Young |
23.2% |
+7.4% |
Ian Kennedy |
23.2% |
-2.1% |
Ubaldo Jimenez |
23.0% |
+4.5% |
Francisco Liriano |
23.0% |
-3.5% |
Garrett Richards |
23.0% |
+2.9% |
Carlos Rodon |
22.9% |
Even |
Johnny Cueto |
22.6% |
+2.3% |
Masahiro Tanaka |
22.6% |
-0.2% |
Kenta Maeda |
22.6% |
N/A |
Steven Wright |
22.5% |
+7.7% |
Aaron Sanchez |
22.5% |
+6.4% |
Julio Teheran |
22.2% |
-0.8% |
John Lackey |
22.1% |
+2.6% |
Hector |
21.7% |
+0.8% |
Bartolo Colon |
21.7% |
+5% |
Jake Odorizzi |
21.6% |
+0.2% |
Ricky Nolasco |
21.5% |
+1.3% |
Sonny Gray |
21.5% |
+1.2% |
Cole Hamels |
21.3% |
-2.1% |
Carlos Martinez |
20.7% |
-3.7% |
Felix Hernandez |
20.7% |
-2.3% |
Michael Wacha |
19.7% |
-1.4% |
|
19.6% |
-4.1% |
Edinson Volquez |
19.5% |
+1.3% |
Jeff Samardzija |
19.4% |
+1.5% |
Jimmy Nelson |
19.4% |
-0.3% |
Zack Greinke |
19.3% |
-4.4% |
Wei Yin Chen |
19.2% |
-0.1% |
Brandon Finnegan |
19.0% |
-3.8% |
Ross Stripling |
18.8% |
N/A |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
18.5% |
-3.0% |
Mike Fiers |
18.3% |
-5.4% |
Yordano Ventura |
18.3% |
-4.2% |
R.A. Dickey |
18.2% |
+3.9% |
Matt Wisler |
18.1% |
+3.0% |
Colin Rea |
17.6% |
-2.0% |
Jon Niese |
17.6% |
+2.9% |
Jordan Zimmermann |
17.4% |
-2.3% |
Wade Miley |
17.4% |
-0.3% |
Chris Bassitt |
17.3% |
-0.4% |
Matt Cain |
17.2% |
+2.1% |
A.J. Griffin |
17.2% |
-3.6% |
|
17.6% |
-1.9% |
Jeff Locke |
17.1% |
-0.4% |
Matt Harvey |
16.9% |
-8% |
Alex Wood |
16.7% |
-0.7% |
Phil Hughes |
16.7% |
+2.3% |
Marcus Stroman |
16.6% |
-0.9% |
Chase Anderson |
16.4% |
-1.1% |
Tyler Chatwood |
16.1% |
-2.7% |
James Shields |
15.7% |
-9.4% |
Derek Holland |
15.5% |
-1.2% |
Clay Buchholz |
15.3% |
-7.5% |
Colby Lewis |
15.3% |
-1.2% |
J.A. Happ |
15.2% |
-5.9% |
Mike Leake |
14.5% |
-0.8% |
Patrick Corbin |
14.3% |
-7.6% |
Doug Fister |
12.7% |
-1.3% |
Mat Latos |
12.6% |
-7.6% |
Wily Peralta |
12.4% |
-0.2% |
Martin Perez |
11.4% |
-2.8% |
Adam Wainwright |
11.1% |
-6.9% |
Mike Pelfrey |
9.8% |
-2.2% |
Some thoughts:
I have beat the Matt Harvey will shove in 2016 drum on this website, and I have to say, I'm shocked at how poorly he's looked so far. My best explanation is that his blood clot issue that popped up at the end of spring training has affected him physically, because his stuff looked incredible when I was down in Florida in early March. His command has not been good in the regular season, and his slider is down about 1.5 mph from last season and looks nothing like it did in early spring. I still expect good things from him at some point, but it might take a while for him to get settled down. I don't think last year's workload is causing the problems this year because of how electric he looked in early March.
Noah Syndergaard has increased his K% dramatically on the back of a hard slider, which added about 3 mph in velocity from last season. He is also using it consistently, where he only used it occasionally last season. He's also gained some more velocity on his fastball.
Rick Porcello is not really generating more swinging strikes, but he's getting more of them with two strikes, and he's throwing more pitches inside the zone.
Rich Hill is mysterious and magical and is maintaining his high K% from last season. Hitters don't seem to pick up his fastball well and have a hard time separating it from his curve.
Vincent Velasquez has exploded onto the scene with mid 90s fastball and a sharp curve, and flashes a good change up, too. He appears to have some deception, because hitters have routinely taken awful swings at his fastball.
Nate Eovaldi has made the splitter a key part of his repertoire, which he added in the second half of last season, and that's helped him increase his strikeout rate.
Matt Moore has always had a lot of talent, and appears to be putting things together. He's generating more swings and misses, although his first pitch strike rate is well below average, which is something to keep an eye on for sustainability.
Chris Sale's strikeout rate has gone down along with his swinging strikes, but he's limiting line drives and generating good trajectories, and is still pitching at a high level.
David Price has sparkling DIPS metrics like FIP and xFIP, but the contact he's allowing is below average. He's giving up line drives at a near 30% rate, not generating many pop ups, and has a below average avg exit velocity against.