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Pitching theme
I'll stick with some thoughts on today's pitchers.
A few options stick out to me, one at the ace level and two at a more mid tier level. For the ace level, Madison Bumgarner ($12,100) takes on a Padres offense that has the 6th highest K% vs LHP at 25.1%, and it comes with a below average wRC+ of 96. Colin Rea opposes Bumgarner, so Bumgarner will be a good bet to pitch well and get enough run support to get the win.
For a lower cost salary relief option, Juan Nicasio ($8,400) faces the worst offense in baseball, the Braves, at home in PNC Park. The Braves have a 68 wRC+ and .079 ISO vs RHP, both the worst marks in baseball, with a 19.8% strikeout rate, which is middle of the road. Nicasio's K% is above average at just under 24%. Nicasio also looks to be a good bet to pitch well and get the win.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,700) takes his above average K% and ERA, along with the Cubs excellent lineup, to take on a Brewers offense that has the 2nd highest K% vs RHP at 26.2%, but the matchup comes with some run scoring risk because the Brewers have about the 10th best offense vs RHP by wRC+ and ISO, and the matchup takes place in Miller Park. The Brewers oppose Hendricks with Chase Anderson, who has been significantly below average and looks to be a good bet for the Cubs to score some runs off of.
The other aces today have matchups that are less appealing to me. Clayton Kershaw is the kingpin of pitching, but he faces an Angels offense that doesn't strike out much vs lefties; their 13.7% K% vs LHP is by far the lowest in baseball, and their overall production vs lefties has been about average. MLB average K% vs LHP has been 21.7%, for reference, so the Angles have significantly less swing and miss in their lineup vs lefties.
Syndergaard and Scherzer oppose each other, and that matchup is tough to get a read on. The Mets have a top 10 offense vs RHP, and Scherzer has been up and down. He's coming off a thoroughly dominant 20 strikeout performance against a top 10 Tigers offense, but he's also had some mediocre to poor performances against some bad offenses, like the Braves and Phillies. He's also allowed the most home runs in baseball to this point, although his home run to fly ball ratio will very likely come down significantly as the season moves along. Syndergaard quietly had his elbow examined 2 weeks ago, and despite the fact that the Mets are facing their biggest rivals in an important matchup, I don't expect them to push Syndergaard too deep into the game as they take precaution.