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Jake Arrieta: the guy we've been talking about lately. Rightfully so, he hasn't lost a game between the two no-hitters he's thrown in the past eight months. He's gone 10-0 over those 11 starts. During such starts, Jake accumulated some gaudy statistics: 86 IP, 36 hits, while allowing just 3 HRs. One of those games he gave up 2 home runs in Arizona earlier this year. One to Goldy and one to Brito. He gave a third one up to Aaron Altherr during Aaron's quiet breakout back in September of 2015.
Jake Arrieta has proven to be a good pitcher. What attributes to being a good pitcher? Many will say lots of K's are most important then second might come great movement on pitches that leads to soft contact. Arrieta can fan guys with the best of them, but what he is truly elite at; is creating soft contact. Soft contact mixed with a good defensive infield gives guys like Arrieta the chance to throw no-hitters. What I can conclude, is that Arrieta's make-up is a perfect model to use for forecasting future talent. It may help predict a break out from some guys that have the ability to make strides just like Arrieta did after leaving Baltimore. We will use Jake as a model to find some guys that harness the same type of game as he does. Here's my analytical, Want-to-be-like-Jake, model:
- K > 7 per 9
- BB < 3.0
- Soft% > 18%
- GB% > 44%
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | Soft% | HR/FB | GB% | BABIP |
| Dallas Keuchel | 7.5 | 2.2 | 23.80% | 10.90% | 62.20% | 0.282 |
| Jake Arrieta | 9.3 | 2.1 | 22.90% | 6.50% | 53.50% | 0.251 |
| Jon Lester | 8.9 | 2.0 | 21.90% | 9.00% | 45.50% | 0.290 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 11.2 | 1.5 | 21.70% | 8.60% | 50.30% | 0.277 |
| Cole Hamels | 8.9 | 2.7 | 21.60% | 11.00% | 47.40% | 0.292 |
| Garrett Richards | 8.2 | 2.9 | 21.50% | 9.20% | 52.90% | 0.275 |
| Zack Greinke | 8.3 | 1.8 | 21.20% | 8.40% | 48.10% | 0.273 |
| Jaime Garcia | 7.5 | 2.1 | 20.80% | 9.40% | 59.30% | 0.264 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 10.3 | 1.9 | 20.80% | 13.30% | 47.80% | 0.285 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 7.4 | 2.0 | 20.70% | 9.60% | 50.60% | 0.289 |
| Aaron Nola | 8.5 | 2.1 | 19.90% | 14.70% | 46.70% | 0.286 |
| Jeff Samardzija | 7.6 | 1.9 | 19.20% | 11.00% | 44.30% | 0.294 |
| Sonny Gray | 7.4 | 2.8 | 19.10% | 9.70% | 55.00% | 0.264 |
| Matt Harvey | 8.6 | 1.9 | 19.00% | 9.40% | 45.80% | 0.282 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 8.4 | 1.6 | 18.80% | 15.20% | 47.60% | 0.268 |
| Jacob deGrom | 9.4 | 2.1 | 18.60% | 7.80% | 44.90% | 0.285 |
| Felix Hernandez | 8.9 | 2.4 | 18.60% | 12.90% | 57.30% | 0.269 |
| Gerrit Cole | 9.0 | 2.1 | 18.50% | 6.50% | 47.50% | 0.308 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 10.3 | 1.9 | 18.50% | 12.00% | 50.20% | 0.283 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 10.1 | 1.7 | 18.30% | 12.20% | 45.50% | 0.305 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 7.6 | 1.3 | 18.30% | 13.70% | 49.70% | 0.283 |
| Corey Kluber | 10.2 | 1.9 | 18.10% | 9.50% | 45.10% | 0.302 |
- Harvey 2013
- Arrieta 2014
(The 14-team dynasty league I'm in, Arrieta was acquired via trade: Side A) Wacha for Side B) Wilin Rosario and Arrieta)
- Kluber 2014
- deGrom 2014
(2014 I picked him up off the waiver wire for cheap in Sept when we really started seeing the All-Star he is now.)
I made up for the Kluber mistake.
- Carrasco 2014
(Added from waiver wire in Aug for cheap.)
Added by the same guy that got Kluber. He must have a good eye...
- Keuchel 2014 but mainly 2015
(Added via waiver wire in late May of 2014)
This owner made quite a pick up. Keuchel had a 3.60 ERA and HR/FB rate north of 16% in May of 2014. He rode it out.)
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I brought all of these guys to your attention because they all made fantasy owners extremely happy and most likely led them to the playoffs and further. These are the guys (acquired for next to nothing) that really win championships in leagues. If you are too slow to jump on them, you're really reeling when it comes to the end of the season when your asking yourself "why didn't I pick up deGrom when I had the chance"? "why didn't i trade for Kluber when his price was low enough"? These moves are truly make or break for a winning season.
Ultimately, I feel like leaving you a little open-ended. Leaving you with the tools to make the big decisions. Here is the chart with the same parameters that covers the past calendar year and has a lot of names on it that could be breakouts. I'll also leave behind a couple guys that I personally think can take the next step and have a breakout season. Keep in mind: breakouts are NOT ALWAYS going to be ex-top-10 prospects. It is a huge fallacy that I see performed by so many baseball minds in fantasy baseball. To think that prospects are the only players that can have good break-out seasons, is to think lazily. A breakout can happen to a 22 year old non prospect to 35 year-old vets. You just have to find them.
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | Soft% | HR/FB | GB% | BABIP |
| Rich Hill | 12.2 | 2.6 | 28.00% | 9.40% | 50.90% | 0.298 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 8.6 | 2.0 | 25.40% | 13.80% | 60.00% | 0.290 |
| Luis Severino | 7.6 | 2.6 | 25.10% | 17.70% | 51.50% | 0.299 |
| Kevin Gausman | 8.1 | 2.2 | 23.20% | 13.60% | 44.80% | 0.289 |
| Jake Arrieta | 9.1 | 1.9 | 22.90% | 9.00% | 56.50% | 0.237 |
| Jon Lester | 8.8 | 2.0 | 22.90% | 10.70% | 48.80% | 0.278 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 7.5 | 2.7 | 22.30% | 9.60% | 51.90% | 0.331 |
| Collin McHugh | 7.5 | 2.4 | 22.20% | 8.70% | 43.30% | 0.323 |
| Mat Latos | 7.1 | 2.3 | 21.90% | 8.60% | 46.40% | 0.267 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | 7.3 | 1.7 | 21.40% | 11.90% | 41.10% | 0.300 |
| Cole Hamels | 9.1 | 2.6 | 21.30% | 10.60% | 47.60% | 0.303 |
| Zack Greinke | 8.2 | 1.7 | 21.20% | 8.00% | 47.00% | 0.245 |
| Jaime Garcia | 7.4 | 2.3 | 21.20% | 6.30% | 60.60% | 0.263 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 11.0 | 1.8 | 21.00% | 13.10% | 45.40% | 0.290 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 10.3 | 1.9 | 20.80% | 13.30% | 47.80% | 0.285 |
| Johnny Cueto | 7.1 | 1.9 | 20.80% | 9.30% | 42.60% | 0.287 |
| Chris Sale | 11.6 | 1.7 | 20.70% | 12.10% | 42.90% | 0.304 |
| Michael Wacha | 7.7 | 3.0 | 20.50% | 10.00% | 44.10% | 0.290 |
| Jacob deGrom | 9.8 | 1.7 | 20.40% | 8.10% | 46.00% | 0.272 |
| Scott Kazmir | 7.2 | 2.9 | 20.00% | 12.30% | 42.50% | 0.281 |
| Aaron Nola | 8.5 | 2.1 | 19.90% | 14.70% | 46.70% | 0.286 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 11.2 | 1.4 | 19.60% | 8.90% | 50.20% | 0.263 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 7.6 | 1.8 | 19.50% | 11.00% | 43.40% | 0.296 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 7.3 | 2.7 | 19.40% | 10.40% | 43.00% | 0.289 |
| Gerrit Cole | 8.6 | 1.9 | 19.20% | 6.00% | 45.90% | 0.308 |
| Steven Matz | 9.2 | 2.5 | 19.10% | 11.40% | 46.80% | 0.331 |
| Clay Buchholz | 7.6 | 2.0 | 19.10% | 7.30% | 45.00% | 0.317 |
| Matt Harvey | 8.3 | 2.0 | 19.00% | 9.10% | 46.30% | 0.279 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 8.3 | 2.2 | 18.90% | 12.30% | 51.70% | 0.296 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 10.2 | 1.8 | 18.80% | 11.40% | 41.60% | 0.279 |
| Anibal Sanchez | 7.7 | 3.0 | 18.60% | 16.20% | 40.90% | 0.292 |
| Danny Salazar | 9.3 | 2.7 | 18.50% | 11.40% | 44.90% | 0.265 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 7.9 | 1.5 | 18.50% | 17.90% | 49.70% | 0.247 |
| J.A. Happ | 7.8 | 2.5 | 18.50% | 8.70% | 41.00% | 0.315 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 7.4 | 2.8 | 18.50% | 9.90% | 45.10% | 0.337 |
| Sonny Gray | 7.6 | 2.8 | 18.30% | 10.50% | 54.30% | 0.262 |
| Jesse Chavez | 7.7 | 2.7 | 18.30% | 11.60% | 43.90% | 0.323 |
| David Price | 9.7 | 1.9 | 18.20% | 9.00% | 40.80% | 0.299 |
| Corey Kluber | 9.9 | 1.8 | 18.10% | 10.70% | 42.30% | 0.292 |
A lot of these guys are probably owned in your league. But maybe some aren't depending how deep a league you play in.
I wrote this article to find guys that have the "mold" to be breakouts. Eventually you might see some of the lesser known guys on this list do such.
My personal take: Hendricks, Nola, and Eovaldi were on my watch list entering 2016. Maybe JA Happ has something to prove this year. Or maybe its a lesser known prospect that gets an opportunity, say; Michael Fullmer, Aaron Blair, or Kyle Zimmer. Breakouts are going to happen. Do some research and don't miss out on "the guy" this year.