Let's find some sneaky streamers for Week 4.
This chart will be our helping hand this week:
The chart above focuses on plate discipline. It shows us the respective team's Contact%, First-Strike%, and most important SwStk%. I sorted this particular chart by SwStk% (swings and misses / total pitches seen) then sorted it further by below-league-average Contact%.
Interestingly enough, we come across some great offenses and of course, some terrible. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers are powerful offenses, yes, but we have seen when they swing and miss and it usually isn't a pretty outcome (e.g. BAL @ KC Apr. 22 Chris Young 6IP 10K and a W, TOR @ BAL Apr 21 Marco Estrada 5IP 9K and a ND, TEX @ CWS Apr. 22 Jose Quintana 7IP 4H and a W). Let's do what we can to find some under-the-radar starting pitchers with above average K%'s that face any of these teams and see if we can hit a bullseye this week.
Kevin Gausman (24% owned ESPN) @ TB Mon, April 25th
Kevin will be making his 2016 major league debut. He threw for 12IP, 19K, 5BB over three rehab starts in the minors over the past couple of weeks and now the Orioles think he is ready. After posting a career high in SwStk% (10.9%) and a career low in BB/9 (2.32) last year, we can hope that Gausman will keep progressing. He has the stuff, he just has to turn it on.
I have a hunch that he comes out for his delayed 2016 debut and really deals. He will miss many bats on Monday and will most likely have some fine run support in hopes of picking up the win. Archer takes the mound opposite of Gausman and he has really stunk it up lately. I can see the Orioles pulling away in this one. Fire up Gausman.
Ubaldo Jimenez (18.4% owned ESPN) @ TB Tues, April 26th
Let us continue to pick on the Rays...
Through three starts, Ubaldo has an xFIP of 2.89 and an ERA of 3.71. When a pitcher's xFIP sits under 3.00 while his ERA is close to 4.00 it usually suggests that the pitcher hasn't been terrible and may have been a bit unlucky in his previous starts. He has struck out 20 batters in 17IP and sports a .389 BABIP. Over 32 starts last year Ubaldo maintained a decent BABIP of .309. He has struggled the past two starts but we can attribute that to the fact he had to face two of the best offenses on the planet.
On Tuesday he faces the lowly Rays. What I'm saying is; this particular matchup looks juicy for a bounce-back start for the Oriole. The Rays are hitting .221/.289/.374 collectively to start the season. Feel free to use Ubaldo if you have to stream this week.
Matt Moore (52.1% owned ESPN) vs BAL Wed, April 28th
He has been one of the most added players over the past week so he might not be streamable in some leagues but for those of you who find him available, go pick him up and hold on. Matt Moore is a very quiet sleeper for Comeback Player of the Year. He's been crappy to say the least over the past 3 years. He has been injured too, you have to give him that. I'm sure it is not easy to just turn it back on after surgery. This year he has caught some early fire and we will hope he continues riding it. He has played all of his games at home and gets another home start this week. He's been labelled as a poor-command pitcher with a deceiving release his whole career and so far in 2016 the command looks to be improved. He has struck out 21 guys in 18IP while recording only 3 walks.
If you have room to add Matt Moore go ahead and start him this week and into the future. He still has the stuff and still has the opportunity. Let the hot start ride on Wednesday with Moore.
Alex Wood (43.8% owned ESPN) vs SD Fri, April 29th
I know, I know; how could I be suggesting Alex Wood? He has really made some owners mad over the past couple seasons. He came into the league with so much promise and backed it up his first two years with the Braves. Since being traded to the Dodgers he hasn't quite been the guy we used to love. He has managed to sprinkle in a few good starts here-and-there and I think this is another spot. Let Alex Wood prove he is still relevant with an easy start against the Padres @ home.
Robbie Ray (9.1% owned ESPN) vs COL Fri, April 29th
The Rockies have been really poor over the past week. They've struck out 27% of the time over that span and have an abysmal .286 OBP on the road. Ray has always been a high K/9 guy that comes along with a high BB/9 mark. That's fine. Like I mentioned before, the Rockies just aren't walking and I expect the Ks to add up in this one.
Conversely, it is a moderately tough division matchup. The Rockies beat up on the Diamondbacks to open the season but Colorado's bats have cooled off and they haven't faced this Diamondback lefty yet. Robbie Ray is a solid stream this week.
Good luck this week. Stream away.