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This is a Good-Bye. Tulowitzki, I Wish You the Best Luck

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Troy Tulowitzki isn't producing now, but the window is still open to move him. Take an action before you regret. This is not the time to shrug and say, "Oh it's still early." This is the time to panic.

We will always miss you, Tulo.
We will always miss you, Tulo.
Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Tulowitzki has been one of the best Fantasy (and probably real world) shortstops for a decade. He is a career .294 .368. 505 hitter who led so many Fantasy teams into their championship in the past, when he was healthy.

It's always an emotional moment when we have to kiss good bye to someone, and it gets even harder when that somebody has been so good to you for a long time. The emotion doesn't get you anywhere in our games, however. You probably saw what happened to the Phillies when they extended Ryan Howard for $125 million just because they love him. You can still love Tulo as much as you want. He is indeed a great defensive shortstop who can contribute to the Blue Jays' another deep playoff run.

We are not here to play real baseball, however. For the glory, pride, and the yearlong bragging right that follow your championship cannot depend on the 31-year-old shortstop anymore.

I'm not here to claim that Tulo's current abysmal .150 .268 .267 line will continue. Let's start with some projections (remainder of the season).

PA

HR

R

RBI

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

ZiPS

429

15

49

56

1

0.250

0.329

0.425

Steamer

465

17

57

57

1

0.250

0.327

0.426

Depth Charts

501

18

59

63

1

0.250

0.328

0.426

Avg

465

17

55

59

1

0.250

0.328

0.426

Every projection pretty much agrees on Tulo. He would neither run nor hit for average. He will still hit some decent pops for a shortstop, but this is not the production you were expecting when you spent your high pick on him at the draft.

First of all, the fact that he left the Rockies' thin air behind is not something trivial. Everybody knows that the Rockies hitters hit a lot more HRs at home, but you might be thinking, "Yeah, he will hit for less power for sure, but he still plays in a hitter friendly home park / division, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem for a talented hitter like Tulo." I totally agree with that, and Steamer agrees, too. In fact, his projected 17 HR is the third highest among SS after Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa.

There is one more major disadvantage that not everybody realizes, however: BABIP. In Colorado, the Rockies' biggest home advantage is the defense. The visiting teams have no problem in enjoying hitting the ball out of the park just like the Rockies players, but they always find it tough to adjust their defense to its thin air. Since 2006, Tulo's debut year, the Rockies hitters' home BABIP is .334 while away BABIP is .291, or 14.8% higher. On the other hand, the Rockies pitchers allowed BABIP of .318 home and .303 away, or only 5.1% higher. The difference between the hitters' and pitchers' Home/Away BABIP gap tells us how much the away team's defense suffer when they visit Denver.

Just in case you are confused, let me elaborate little more. The fact that the Rockies pitchers allow similar BABIP either home or away means that the Rockies defense doesn't allow much more in-play hits at the Coors: They aren't influenced by their home field's thin air. On the other hand, the away teams for some reasons have a lot more difficult time fielding the Rockies hitters' in-play balls at the Coors. Okay, you might be thinking, "Hey, doesn't everybody feel more comfortable playing at home? What's so special about the Coors?" Yes, indeed everybody fields better in their home parks. Nevertheless, the gap pitcher/hitter's home/away BABIP is higher in Denver than anywhere else.

(Home Babip hitters / Home Babip pitchers) / (Away Babip hitters / Away Babip pitchers) from 2006 to 2015

COL

9.4%

STL

8.8%

MIN

8.1%

PIT

8.0%

BOS

7.0%

NYY

7.0%

WSN

6.3%

ATL

6.1%

OAK

6.0%

ARI

6.0%

SEA

5.8%

SFG

5.6%

TOR

5.6%

TBR

5.3%

LAA

4.9%

TEX

4.9%

DET

4.8%

PHI

4.0%

LAD

3.9%

HOU

3.7%

CHC

3.6%

SDP

3.5%

BAL

3.4%

CIN

3.4%

MIL

2.9%

NYM

2.4%

MIA

2.2%

CLE

1.5%

KCR

1.4%

CHW

1.1%

If you really want to know more about what I'm doing here (which I doubt), check out my other article. Let's simplify all this crap: The Rockies hitters have the most inflated BABIP than anyone else in the baseball. Last year, Tulo's BABIP went down from .351 to .291 when he was traded to the Blue Jays, and he is currently putting up .175 BABIP this year so far. His BABIP should at least bounce back to some reasonable level, but his struggle in Toronto is not solely about his bad luck. At age 31, the All-Star shortstop's skill level is fading, and he is not even protected by the mountain range anymore. Steamer, ZiPS, Depth Chart, or whatever other projection metrics are all agreed on that, so you should also be ready to move on from any good memory you had with Tulo in last 10 years.

The most important part. How does Tulo's current projection fares in the Fantasy land? SS is an extremely talent scarce position, so shouldn't he still be playable? If the answer was "yes," I would not be writing this article.

Rank

Player

PA

HR

RBI

R

AVG

SB

1

Manny Machado

608

26

81

87

0.290

12

2

Carlos Correa

573

20

75

73

0.276

19

3

Xander Bogaerts

577

14

70

70

0.290

7

4

Francisco Lindor

592

11

59

67

0.271

18

5

Elvis Andrus

539

4

47

55

0.268

21

6

Marcus Semien

519

16

58

61

0.251

9

7

Jean Segura

468

7

41

48

0.273

18

8

Trevor Story

451

15

49

59

0.251

12

9

Alcides Escobar

591

4

45

62

0.262

18

10

Corey Seager

527

14

56

60

0.261

5

11

Eugenio Suarez

502

16

55

53

0.256

8

12

Starlin Castro

507

11

55

53

0.269

6

13

Ian Desmond

513

16

58

54

0.240

11

14

Jose Iglesias

449

4

42

47

0.283

11

15

Jung-ho Kang

450

14

55

49

0.259

5

16

Ketel Marte

494

4

40

50

0.262

18

17

Troy Tulowitzki

465

17

57

57

0.250

1

SS Ranking based on Steamer's remainder of the season projection

If you want to know more about how I create this ranking, read more. Here as you can see, Tulo is ranked at 17th, which means he isn't rosterable in a standard 12-team league. You don't have to completely agree with this projections, but you should get the idea. Tulo's somewhat higher than average power as a SS doesn't cover his low SB or AVG. His R/RBI can benefit from his good friends in Toronto, but at age 31 and as an infamous injury-prone, he isn't going to play more games than the younger kids, so his counting stats won't be as impressive.

If I were you, I would try to move Tulo while people still believe in his name brand. A lot of people still think he can bounce back from his slow start, so if you ask for some other lesser names like Marcus Semien, Francisco Lindor, or even Trevor Story, you might be able to get a huge return on him (although it would be a big loss from the draft day price). People, good memories are only beautiful when they stay in the past. You might think of your ex-girlfriend once in a while, but if you decide to date her once again now, even your precious memories will be all shattered. Troy Tulowitzki, you will be always remembered. I wish you all the best of luck, and I hope you are happy with your new manager, and please stay there as long as you can.