FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball (DFS) picks for Friday, April 22

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My general strategy on FanDuel is to find the pitcher I think has the best chance to put up the highest point total regardless of his price, then find value with hitters. Those pitchers are usually expensive, so finding good value with hitters is key for me. I don't always do this; for example, if one pitcher is significantly lower in price than a top tier guy but the difference in how I view them for that night is minimal, I'll go with the lower priced guy. I also take into account who I think might be the highest owned that day, but sometimes that's tough to predict.

The exception to this is on Coors Field days where I see a bunch of good road hitters that could go off with the new park environment. In Coors Field, pitches move less, batted balls fall in for hits more often because of the spacious dimensions and altitude, and the thin air makes fly balls travel further than they would in a neutral environment. Since everyone knows that Coors Field plays like a pinball machine, road hitters salaries are reflected in a big rise from where they're normally at. That's why I deviate from the high priced pitcher on Coors Field days, because the salary cap wouldn't allow for it.

Today, the Dodgers to go Coors Field to face Jon Gray. I have heard mixed things about Gray lately; I've read on some outlets that his stuff isn't as nasty anymore and he's more of a pitch to contact guy now, but others say he still flashes that nasty stuff that made him the 3rd overall pick in 2013. It's his first MLB start of 2016, so there's a little bit of uncertainty there, but the projection systems have him as a below average run prevention pitcher this year without adjusting for park environment.

There are some good bats in the Dodgers lineup that could go off in Coors. Adrian Gonzalez ($4,200) has hit RHP to a 132 wRC+ and .224 ISO since the start of last year. Catcher Yasmani Grandal ($3,700) has hit RHP about 30% better than the average catcher with a 119 wRC+ and .186 ISO since the start of 2015. 3B Justin Turner ($3,600) is off to a slow start but has hit RHP to a 146 wRC+ and .202 ISO since the start of 2015. Joc Pederson ($3,800) has a 124 wRC+ and .216 ISO in that time frame.

Since the hitting will cost so much doing this, a good value salary relief pitcher is needed. Two sub 7k options stand out: Aaron Nola and Aaron Sanchez. Of the two, I'm leaning towards Nola right now. Nola's peripherals are way better than his run prevention, which is a poor 5.68 through 3 starts. His K% is 30%, his BB% is 4%, and he's got a 3.15 FIP. I also believe in his skills long term: his stuff is good, and so is his command. It appears the main reason for his terrible ERA is a 50% strand rate, which is significantly below the MLB average of about 72%, which will normalize towards that number for Nola as time goes on. I expect him to be lower owned because of his bad ERA. The Phillies are awful, but they're facing a poor Brewers team that will probably finish with a low 70 win total, so there's a chance for Nola to pitch well enough to get the win.

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