FanPost

Very Early Rest of the Season Fantasy Baseball Top 100

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not a big believer of guesswork. When I’m grabbing beer with my friends, I enjoy throwing my conjectures out there and argue, but in reality, I don’t trust myself. Let me elaborate on the last statement. I don’t like when I jump to quick conclusion about some player’s potential outlook based on my gut or how I "feel" about a certain player.

Just like every other writer who claims to be a Fantasy expert, I like to brag about my correct predictions and never to revisit my wrong ones. Because I know my flaws better than anybody, when I evaluate players, I try to be as cold-hearted as possible. Therefore, when I make predictions, I rely mostly on the Steamer. Steamer may not be right all the time, but all their projections are based on each player’s numbers, not based on how some guy on internet feels.

You probably want to say, "What’s fun about using Steamer? Steamer doesn’t recommend a deep sleeper." True. You might not be able to make a waiver pick that wow everyone. Nevertheless, if you use it in a right way, you can make an objective valuation on each player, which can be used to judge which players are either overvalued or undervalued in the market. Obviously, it’s up to you to make a decision. According to my Steamer based Rank, Trevor Story is ranked at 155th. Do I believe it? Hell no. I think he is the next big thing in the Fantasy Baseball (you can read more about Story in my previous article). Still, this is a good reality check, and this might help you if you are looking to move Story for a maximum profit.

I used my own standard deviation formula to calculate each player’s categorical value in 5x5 Yahoo Standard Format, based on Steamer’s remainder of the season projections. Each player’s relative dollar value is calculated within his position group, and then reassembled as an aggregated rank. This will help you to see how the position scarcity mathematically tweaks a player’s overall value. For example, we all know that Rizzo will put up better number than Posey, but how much does Posey’s C eligibility offsets that statistical deficiency? Or, Kershaw is no doubt the top gun among the pitchers, but is he more valuable than the top gun of the hitters, Mike Trout? I understand that this all varies depending on how your league is setup, but I believe this general cheat sheet can provide you a new and very objective way of viewing the players.

The dollar value indicated on each player is set to match the standard Yahoo Auction Draft price (12-Team League with $260 draft budget). Since the season has already begun, the projected draft value won’t mean too much to most of you, so simply use them to compare player to player. Before we go on, I am stressing one more time that this Ranking and Projected Value doesn’t include even a slightest bit of my personal opinion. These are all purely computer generated using the Steamer projections (All projection stats are up to date as of 4/15/2016).

Rank

Player

Position (Yahoo)

Projected Value

Comment

1

Mike Trout

CF

$ 55.38

He is struggling now, but I'm sure none of you are worried about him. If you are crazy enough to move him now, you should have no trouble finding a suitor.

2

Manny Machado

3B,SS

$ 54.96

Showalter played him at SS 7 games last season, which was just enough for most of us. Showalter certainly understands our needs.

3

Paul Goldschmidt

1B

$ 50.66

Same thing goes here. Nothing to worry.

4

Clayton Kershaw

SP

$ 48.42

You pick the high-end SP mostly for his high floor, and Kershaw's floor is sky high.

5

Carlos Correa

SS

$ 48.31

Already a superstar in both real and fake world at age 21.

6

Jose Altuve

2B

$ 47.82

Feels like he has been around forever, but he is still 25. The scary part is that his power has been growing.

7

Bryce Harper

CF,RF

$ 45.20

He is ranked here only because of the abundance of talents in OF. Disregarding his position, he is right behind Trout.

8

Buster Posey

C,1B

$ 44.66

Schwarber ACL injury let Posey to become a lone star of truly depressing catcher group.

9

Anthony Rizzo

1B

$ 42.27

Young, powerful, accurate. He is the cleanup hitter of the most loaded lineup, and even steals bases.

10

Mookie Betts

CF,RF

$ 39.00

He is one of those guys who are a lot more valuable in our fake games (I'm not saying he is not in the real world).

11

Kris Bryant

3B,RF

$ 36.82

I probably don't have to reassure you that the Chicago Rock Star will bounce back from his slow start pretty soon.

12

Starling Marte

LF,CF

$ 36.65

You see Marte before McCutchen not only because of his numbers, but also because of his LF eligibility. LF is a lot scarcer than CF or RF this year (be aware if your league simply uses OF). He might not be as strong as many people used to expect, but still can run and make contacts.

13

Nolan Arenado

3B

$ 36.21

A top young power talent playing at Coors? Can't go wrong here. His high fly ball ratio makes him even more perfect fit to produce as a Rocky. Read More.

14

Max Scherzer

SP

$ 36.08

Scherzer will repeatedly face Braves, Phillies, and Marlins this year.

15

Charlie Blackmon

LF,CF

$ 36.08

I'm not sure whether Steamer hasn't updated his injury or simply treating it as minor issue. Either way, as long as he is on field, he can run, hit, and score as a leadoff of the mountaineers' high powering offense.

16

Giancarlo Stanton

RF

$ 35.81

He only has 2 home run so far, but there is absolutely no worries there. His .231 AVG might cause some concerns though.

17

Miguel Cabrera

1B

$ 35.08

The former Triple Crown winner is the future Hall of Famer, and he still has plenty of baseball left in him. Steamer just don't think he can stay healthy all year.

18

Chris Sale

SP

$ 34.34

US Cellular Field allows the 4th most home runs to right handed hitters. Sale is a sidearm lefty, but his dominant skill easily erases the park factor.

19

Justin Upton

LF

$ 33.74

Once one of the most exciting Fantasy players to draft turned out to be a just boring and consistent across the board contributor. I'm sure his owners won't complain about that.

20

Xander Bogaerts

SS

$ 33.70

His value is heavily dependent on his surrounding lineup to assist his R/RBI numbers. He is a young and productive SS, but somehow not very exciting player to own already.

21

Andrew McCutchen

CF

$ 33.17

Reality check. He is 29 and he already peaked in 2012. He is still one of the best players out there, but no longer an MVP candidate. Also, there are too many young exciting CF available in this league.

22

Jose Abreu

1B

$ 30.61

He brought the thunder into the baseball world two years ago, but now we have a better idea about this guy. He is a reliable middle of the order bat, but not the absolute top 1B in this game. His friends of South Chicago don't provide too much help either.

23

Josh Donaldson

3B

$ 29.13

Surprised to see him this low? Steamer likes him, but it just prefers the other three options (Machado, Bryant, and Arenado) at 3B. Steamer expects to see some regressions in both power and AVG.

24

Robinson Cano

2B

$ 29.04

Since his hot start of the season, he cooled down a bit and averaging below .200, but he is the most reliable bat in 2B regardless. Safeco Field no longer holds down every fly ball within the park, but at age 33, his fast start on HRs probably won't last.

25

Francisco Lindor

SS

$ 27.76

Where the hell did his power stroke come from? He never slugged higher than .410 in his minor league career, but suddenly belted 12 HRs in 99 games as rookie last year (SLG .482). This year, he is so far backing up his last year's wondrous numbers. Maybe he is a better hitter than we all expected.

26

David Price

SP

$ 27.63

His ERA is 5.73 as of now, but his K/9 is 14.73. Let's not worry about Left handed control freak with the best stuff in the baseball (his velocity is down significantly this year, but it's only been 2 games, so let's give him some time before freaking out).

27

Dee Gordon

2B

$ 27.36

He hit career high 4 HRs last year, and I bet that number will regress. Everything else will stay same (even the high BABIP).

28

Madison Bumgarner

SP

$ 26.66

Rough start to the season, but simply too early to worry about the baseball's most durable rubber arm. Read More.

29

Jake Arrieta

SP

$ 25.50

He probably won't repeat his 1.77 ERA, but he can still win another CY Young without it.

30

Jose Fernandez

SP

$ 25.38

He is putting up 5.06 ERA so far, but his 2.12 FIP tells us a different story. His slider is the best strikeout stuff in the baseball, and the injury is the only thing that can stop the 23-year-old.

31

J.D. Martinez

RF

$ 23.41

Someone in the Astros front office surely got fired for letting him go.

32

Joey Votto

1B

$ 23.31

He is pretty good at baseball. He just needs to stay on field.

33

Noah Syndergaard

SP

$ 23.19

His fastball averages 98.1 mph.

34

Christian Yelich

LF,CF

$ 23.09

Steamer put him down for 12 HR rest of the season. That’s exactly what we are all waiting for this versatile lefty who already have proved every other aspect of his game.

35

Yasiel Puig

RF

$ 22.83

He is not a home run hitter we once imagined, and he no longer soaks up the media attention. His well-rounded Fantasy game still appeals to most of us, as long as his hamstring holds up.

36

Chris Davis

1B,RF

$ 22.73

He is going to hit HR, probably more than anybody. Just don't expect anything else.

37

Jason Heyward

CF,RF

$ 22.56

He is more of a real life player, but he hits in the middle of the order of an offensive juggernaut, so his on-base skill might come into play more in our fake games this year.

38

Corey Kluber

SP

$ 22.31

Finally he has some decent defenders to pick up his slack. His amazing K-BB and Lindor will bring his Fantasy glory back.

39

Todd Frazier

3B

$ 22.25

As long as you don't expect him to hit for average, his powerful right handed bat will fit right into the lineup of the Chicago Southside.

40

Stephen Strasburg

SP

$ 21.73

He is already 27 and we are still waiting for this former Phenom to shock the world.

41

Carlos Gonzalez

RF

$ 21.05

He doesn't run anymore, but his contact and power is still there. As long as he wears the Rockies' jersey, he is an elite OF.

42

Ryan Braun

RF

$ 21.05

He produced stunning 25HR 24SB .285AVG last year, but for many reasons, he is no longer sexy enough for us. It doesn't mean that his bat won't be valuable to your team.

43

Kenley Jansen

RP

$ 20.66

Chapman beat up his gf, and now Jansen is taking care of the top spot among the RPs.

44

Prince Fielder

1B

$ 20.35

His fly balls are no longer death threats to the opposing pitchers, but he has learned how to roll his grounders into the opposite field.

45

Eric Hosmer

1B

$ 20.34

Not a typical elite 1B, but 1B position is no longer a 30 HR guaranteed power goldmine. Hosmer's game is more valuable than you might think.

46

Adam Jones

CF

$ 20.26

King of consistency. His .269 BA of last year will easily bounce back, but he has been losing power year by year. Steamer's 25 HR projections sounds about reasonable in every way.

47

Zack Greinke

SP

$ 20.17

He moved into one of the notorious hitters' heavens and just finished setting up his pension fund. No longer an elite K source, and he has all the reasons to decline at age 32, but he is still Greinke.

48

Jose Bautista

RF

$ 19.97

Steamer doesn't think he can reach his last year's 40HR mark this year. 29HR rest of the way is a fair expectation for a 35-year-old, and he doesn't contribute much elsewhere.

49

Gerardo Parra

LF,CF,RF

$ 19.69

You can't blame Steamer for getting too excited for Parra's first season at Coors. Even his mediocre offensive profile is good enough to excel at 5200 feet above sea level.

50

Ian Kinsler

2B

$ 19.49

You all know. We are about to see another year of same old Kinsler doing little bit of everything.

51

Carlos Carrasco

SP

$ 19.38

One of the buzziest pitchers coming into the season, and Steamer backs up everybody's hype. His number is very sabermetric friendly, but now it's time for him to prove his game can translate to Fantasy.

52

Jon Lester

SP

$ 19.13

He can neither swing bat nor throw to the first base, but he sure can hit the catcher's mitt. He is boring to own, but his bully teammates will help him to get on that win column.

53

Jonathan Lucroy

C,1B

$ 19.01

With Schwarber going down, every decent catcher got a good bump in value.

54

Matt Harvey

SP

$ 18.50

If his health is alright as he claims, he is a no doubt ace. But we are not sure whether he is really okay or not…

55

Hanley Ramirez

LF

$ 18.42

Looks like he is ready to shake off his 2015. I guess he stopped hanging out with Panda.

56

David Peralta

LF,RF

$ 18.36

One of the most interesting stories in the baseball has everything to excite us.

57

David Ortiz

1B

$ 18.10

He isn't going to waste his farewell party.

58

Jacob deGrom

SP

$ 18.05

Another guy with a minor injury that we don't know its extent.

59

Andrew Miller

RP

$ 17.85

Steamer put down 18 SVs for him rest of the season. If that really happens, he should be one of the best relievers to own.

60

Ben Revere

LF,CF,RF

$ 17.85

Also currently suffering from an injury, but his high BA/SB/R makes him a sneaky roti contributor.

61

George Springer

CF,RF

$ 17.53

It's already his 3rd season in MLB. Will he finally show up this year?

62

Yoenis Cespedes

LF,CF

$ 17.14

A big time regression candidate.

63

Edwin Encarnacion

1B

$ 16.77

The late boomer is heading into free agency after this season, and he will do everything to stay on the field this year.

64

Miguel Sano

3B

$ 16.41

Having too many issues at the plate right now, but his Stantonian power potential at the corner infield spot is just too attractive to bypass.

65

Matt Carpenter

2B,3B

$ 16.27

He hit 28 HRs out of nowhere last year. While he may not repeat that, just getting half done will justify this price easily.

66

Freddie Freeman

1B

$ 16.24

Not the hottest guy on earth anymore, but you can rely on his BA and decent pops.

67

Daniel Murphy

1B,2B,3B

$ 16.21

The postseason hero is continuing his hot streak into the regular season. Currently hitting .464 AVG, making his new contract look cheap.

68

Johnny Cueto

SP

$ 16.02

No longer a top SP of the league, but AT&T park will help to prolong his career. Just be aware that he don't get too many Ks, even in his prime.

69

Nelson Cruz

RF

$ 15.88

He puts many groundballs for hits and his flyballs carry over the fence once they float. Simply a perfect hitter at the plate, but he is already 35.

70

Rougned Odor

2B

$ 15.77

An exciting name who is playing a talent scarce position, but we haven't seen anything yet.

71

Kyle Seager

3B

$ 15.70

Just too reliable. Not interesting at all to own, but he gets his job done.

72

Adrian Gonzalez

1B

$ 15.67

Last year he played 159 games, and that's the lowest game played in his career. Just a natural workhorse even at age 33.

73

Salvador Perez

C

$ 15.61

His poor base running and low OBP makes him a subpar hitter in real baseball, but Ned Yost loves batting him in the middle of the order, and his game translates very well into our fake games.

74

Lorenzo Cain

CF

$ 15.58

One of the best real baseball players, but he doesn't hit many HRs or steal many bases to be the top OF in Fantasy.

75

Anthony Rendon

2B,3B

$ 15.46

This could be his year to bounce back, but he hasn't done anything so far this year to convince us. His long injury history dating back to his college years is just too scary.

76

Adrian Beltre

3B

$ 15.43

The future Hall of Famer no longer hits 30 bombs, but he is still one of the better ones on the corner.

77

Craig Kimbrel

RP

$ 15.16

Once an untouchable top closer of the league suddenly turned into a journeyman. His skills are all still there, but AL East is not the friendliest environment for pitchers to succeed.

78

DJ LeMahieu

2B

$ 15.15

We know any Rocky who knows how to swing is Fantasy-relevant. It just gets better when he plays 2B.

79

Albert Pujols

1B

$ 15.02

Still no pitcher wants to face him when the bases are loaded, but he is 36 and his games has been on downfall since his arrival on SoCal.

80

Dallas Keuchel

SP

$ 14.99

An elite lefty, but doesn't get enough Ks to be the top guy in Fantasy.

81

Chris Archer

SP

$ 14.92

He does get more Ks than anyone, but he isn't a control artist. Regardless, he is one of the most interesting arms in the game.

82

Marcus Semien

SS

$ 14.68

Remember this guy? He had a terrible second half last season, but SS with HR/SB upside will play anywhere.

83

Gerrit Cole

SP

$ 14.56

His K-rate is disappointing considering his raw stuff, but no matter what he is a solid ace.

84

Brian McCann

C,1B

$ 14.54

No catcher has been this consistent for such a long time. His left handed soft linedrives are perfect fit for the Yankees Stadium.

85

Felix Hernandez

SP

$ 14.49

So many people are trying to talk down on King, but his time isn't done yet. Read More.

86

Elvis Andrus

SS

$ 14.22

Not many SS in the league knows how to swing the bats, so even Andrus is playable in our games.

87

Mark Trumbo

1B,LF,RF

$ 14.20

Posing for a true breakout year now that he plays in AL East.

88

Brian Dozier

2B

$ 14.11

You may not want to take part of any Twins hitter, but Dozier is a great power/speed threat for a middle infielder. He just won't hit for average.

89

J.T. Realmuto

C

$ 13.71

Is this a breakout year for the rare breed, athletic catcher? His base stealing ability makes him a unique asset among his peers.

90

Byung-ho Park

1B

$ 13.60

An unknown commodity. We all want to see what he can do in the States, but he hasn't done much so far. Read more.

91

Billy Hamilton

CF

$ 13.26

He is just a terrible hitter, but you know he can do one thing better than anybody.

92

Alex Gordon

LF

$ 13.24

He only stole 2 bases last year, and he needs to do more of those to compensate his mediocre power/contact profile.

93

Gregory Polanco

RF

$ 13.22

Another big breakout candidate, but he needs to hit better than .256 average to make us drool.

94

Matt Kemp

RF

$ 13.08

He is not a MVP candidate anymore, but he still does everything enough to be relevant for us.

95

Josh Harrison

2B,3B,LF,RF

$ 12.97

Great position eligibility, but we want to see more.

96

Melky Cabrera

LF

$ 12.72

He has been an underrated commodity in the Fantasy world for his entire career, and that status won't likely change this year. Just too boring.

97

Jacoby Ellsbury

CF

$ 12.70

Health is the biggest enemy of this versatile 32-year-old OF.

98

Jason Kipnis

2B

$ 12.41

He somehow still keeps his average above .300. If he can repeat his 2015, he might be a terrible defensive player for the Indians, but he would be a good Fantasy 2B.

99

Zach Britton

RP

$ 12.36

One of the more reliable arms in this year of major closer crisis.

100

Kevin Pillar

LF,CF

$ 12.14

He owns the game changing defensive ability as a CF, and he does just enough at the plate to be owned in our game.