clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NHL Playoffs Tips, Picks and Metrics

5 things to know about the upcoming NHL Playoffs, Bruce Boudreau is a genius.

Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The Winner of the 2016 NHL Playoffs is...

Playoffs are starting tomorrow. If you are in any kind of playoff bracket challenge/series pick'em, below are 5 things you need to know before you make your picks:

1. This is the most important point. In the graph below, over the last 3 years someone in the top 4 of Shot Attempts % has won the Stanley Cup. By this metric, Either Los Angeles, Anaheim, Dallas or Pittsburgh will win the 2016 Stanley Cup.

Shot Attempts % Close

2016

2016 Result

2015

2015 Result

2014

2014 Result

2013

2013 Result

1

Los Angeles

Winnipeg

Lost 1st Round

Los Angeles

Stanley Cup Champ

Los Angeles

Conference Finals

2

Anaheim

Detroit

Lost 1st Round

Chicago

Conference Finals

New Jersey

DNM

3

Dallas

Tampa Bay

Finals

Boston

Conference Semis

Chicago

Stanley Cup Champ

4

Pittsburgh

Chicago

Stanley Cup Champ

New Jersey

DNM

Boston

Finals

5

Tampa Bay

Los Angeles

DNM

San Jose

Lost 1st Round

Detroit

Conference Semis

6

San Jose

Pittsburgh

Lost 1st Round

NYR

Finals

Montreal

Lost 1st Round

7

Nashville

Nashville

Lost 1st Round

St. Louis

Lost 1st Round

Ottawa

Conference Semis

8

Detroit

NYI

Lost 1st Round

Ottawa

DNM

NYR

Conference Semis

9

Carolina

DNM

Dallas

DNM

Vancouver

DNM

Vancouver

Lost 1st Round

10

Winnipeg

DNM

Boston

DNM

Tampa Bay

Lost 1st Round

St. Louis

Lost 1st Round

11

Philadelphia

San Jose

DNM

Dallas

Lost 1st Round

Carolina

DNM

12

St. Louis

Carolina

DNM

Detroit

Lost 1st Round

San Jose

Conference Semis

13

Montreal

DNM

Washington

Conference Semis

Columbus

Lost 1st Round

NYI

Lost 1st Round

14

Toronto

DNM

St. Louis

Lost 1st Round

Florida

DNM

Phoenix

DNM

15

Washington

Anaheim

Conference Finals

NYI

DNM

Dallas

DNM

16

Chicago

Florida

DNM

Phoenix

DNM

Florida

DNM

17

Boston

DNM

Minnesota

Conference Semis

Pittsburgh

Conference Semis

Winnipeg

DNM

18

Florida

Vancouver

Lost 1st Round

Anaheim

Conference Semis

Pittsburgh

Conference Finals

19

NYI

NYR

Conference Finals

Philadelphia

Lost 1st Round

Minnesota

Lost 1st Round

20

Minnesota

Ottawa

Lost 1st Round

Winnipeg

DNM

Washington

Lost 1st Round

21

NYR

Montreal

Conference Semis

Carolina

DNM

Colorado

DNM

22

Edmonton

DNM

Philadelphia

DNM

Nashville

DNM

Calgary

DNM

23

Columbus

DNM

New Jersey

DNM

Minnesota

Conference Semis

Philadelphia

DNM

24

Vancouver

DNM

Edmonton

DNM

Washington

DNM

Anaheim

Lost 1st Round

25

Buffalo

DNM

Arizona

DNM

Colorado

Lost 1st Round

Columbus

DNM

26

Calgary

DNM

Columbus

DNM

Montreal

Conference Finals

Tampa Bay

DNM

27

New Jersey

DNM

Toronto

DNM

Calgary

DNM

Nashville

DNM

28

Ottawa

DNM

Calgary

Conference Semis

Edmonton

DNM

Buffalo

DNM

29

Arizona

DNM

Colorado

DNM

Toronto

DNM

Edmonton

DNM

30

Colorado

DNM

Buffalo

DNM

Buffalo

DNM

Toronto

Lost 1st Round

DNM - Did not make playoffs

2. Fenwick and CORSI are two other indicators of strong teams who will go far. Below are the teams ranked from best to worst in that metric. According to that, the best teams are LA and Anaheim.

CORSI

Fenwick

L.A

1

1

ANA

2

2

NSH

4

3

PIT

3

4

S.J

8

4

DAL

4

6

STL

7

7

WSH

11

8

T.B

6

9

CHI

10

12

DET

9

14

PHI

16

15

FLA

19

17

NYI

20

19

MIN

24

21

NYR

23

22

3. Individual Metrics: Over the last 25 games, the Flyers have out played the Capitals in CORSI, Scoring %, Goal % and Save%. I still think Washington wins this series but it could be a dog fight. Minnesota Wild are the lowest scoring team in the West and are without most of their scoring stars. The Kings might get Marian Gaborik back just in time for the playoffs. The St. Louis Blues as always are poised to be a strong team in the playoffs but can they convert this year? The Chicago Blackhawks have largely been low scoring outside of the all-star second line.

4. Injuries:
a.       Pittsburgh got their groove late in the season and might need to make good use of the fact that they are 18-6-1 without Evgeni Malkin this season as they won't see him until likely 2nd round. Crosby might be back to start the first round as will Marc-Andre Fleury but injuries have piled up for the Penguins
b. Dallas Stars - Tyler Seguin MIGHT be ready but will likely be cold entering into the first round of the playoffs.
c. Tampa Bay is without star Steven Stamkos and Anton Strolman  until deep in the playoffs if they make the run. Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov will play but are all nursing injures too.
d. Minnesota Wild is without Thomas Vanek for the first round and might have Erik Haula and Zach Parise but both of them are banged up.

5. Emotions: Ed Snider recently passed and Pavel Datsyuk said this is his last year. That should give emotional boosts to both teams but with the Flyers facing top squad Washington and Detroit having trouble with stability in net, neither team is looking to make it past the first round.

Predictions
Round 1
West:
Stars over Wild in 5
Blues over Blackhawks in 6
Ducks over Predators in 4
Kings over Sharks in 6

East:
Capitals over Flyers in 7
Penguins over Rangers in 6
Islanders over Panthers in 5
Lightning over Red Wings in 5

Conference Semifinals
West:
Blues over Stars in 6
Ducks over Kings in 5

East:
Capitals over Penguins in 4
Islanders over Lightning in 7


Conference Finals:
Ducks over Blues in 6
Capitals over Islanders in 7

Stanley Cup Winner
Anaheim Ducks win in 6 games.