NHL Playoffs Tips, Picks and Metrics

The Winner of the 2016 NHL Playoffs is...

Playoffs are starting tomorrow. If you are in any kind of playoff bracket challenge/series pick'em, below are 5 things you need to know before you make your picks:

1. This is the most important point. In the graph below, over the last 3 years someone in the top 4 of Shot Attempts % has won the Stanley Cup. By this metric, Either Los Angeles, Anaheim, Dallas or Pittsburgh will win the 2016 Stanley Cup.

2. Fenwick and CORSI are two other indicators of strong teams who will go far. Below are the teams ranked from best to worst in that metric. According to that, the best teams are LA and Anaheim.

3. Individual Metrics: Over the last 25 games, the Flyers have out played the Capitals in CORSI, Scoring %, Goal % and Save%. I still think Washington wins this series but it could be a dog fight. Minnesota Wild are the lowest scoring team in the West and are without most of their scoring stars. The Kings might get Marian Gaborik back just in time for the playoffs. The St. Louis Blues as always are poised to be a strong team in the playoffs but can they convert this year? The Chicago Blackhawks have largely been low scoring outside of the all-star second line.

4. Injuries:
a.       Pittsburgh got their groove late in the season and might need to make good use of the fact that they are 18-6-1 without Evgeni Malkin this season as they won't see him until likely 2^nd round. Crosby might be back to start the first round as will Marc-Andre Fleury but injuries have piled up for the Penguins
b. Dallas Stars - Tyler Seguin MIGHT be ready but will likely be cold entering into the first round of the playoffs.
c. Tampa Bay is without star Steven Stamkos and Anton Strolman  until deep in the playoffs if they make the run. Victor Hedman, Ryan Callahan, Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov will play but are all nursing injures too.
d. Minnesota Wild is without Thomas Vanek for the first round and might have Erik Haula and Zach Parise but both of them are banged up.

5. Emotions: Ed Snider recently passed and Pavel Datsyuk said this is his last year. That should give emotional boosts to both teams but with the Flyers facing top squad Washington and Detroit having trouble with stability in net, neither team is looking to make it past the first round.

Predictions
Round 1
West:
Stars over Wild in 5
Blues over Blackhawks in 6
Ducks over Predators in 4
Kings over Sharks in 6

East:
Capitals over Flyers in 7
Penguins over Rangers in 6
Islanders over Panthers in 5
Lightning over Red Wings in 5

Conference Semifinals
West:
Blues over Stars in 6
Ducks over Kings in 5

East:
Capitals over Penguins in 4
Islanders over Lightning in 7

Conference Finals:
Ducks over Blues in 6
Capitals over Islanders in 7

Stanley Cup Winner
Anaheim Ducks win in 6 games.