Yahoo ADP: 150 overall
Average round: 16
12th 2B off the board
I wrote in depth about Murphy in early January here. The point was that he made a tangible change at the plate with the help of hitting coach Kevin Long, and it led to a surge in extra base hits. Murphy's isolated power the last 3 months of 2015, including the playoffs, was a ridiculous .273. Baseball fans remember him for his amazing postseason, but his rise in power hitting started a few months before the postseason began.
Murphy now loads in a crouched down stance, using his lower body more in his swing, and gets his lead foot down much earlier, which puts him in much better position to time up the ball and turn on it as it's delivered to the plate. He has matched this same technique this spring and carried it over to Nationals camp, and when I've watched him, he's been in the same position to turn on the ball and drive it.
Murphy obviously won't be a .270 ISO hitter in 2016 like he was for the last 3 months of 2015 (including playoffs), but I think he's going to sustain more power in his profile, a lot more than the .130 ISO/9 home run per season average that we've seen from him in his career prior. I wouldn't be surprised if he reaches 20 home runs in 2016. That's strong power for a 2B, and as the 12th 2B off the board in Yahoo ADP, at pick 150 overall, Murphy might provide a lot of value for fantasy owners in drafts, especially if he's slotted in a favorable lineup position.
Yahoo ADP: 205 overall
Average round: 21
17th 3B off the board
Turner made a swing adjustment the offseason before he joined the Dodgers and has hit to an elite level since, but you wouldn't know that based on his current ADP of over 200 in Yahoo. Turner has 761 PA with the Dodgers and has hit to a .314/.384/.492 slash with a 148 wRC+ and .178 ISO, and every time I watch him I feel like he's hitting line drives everywhere. A 26% line drive rate with the Dodgers supports that observation; it's 8th highest among players with 700+ PA the last 2 seasons. To put Turner's productivity in perspective, he has the 11th highest wRC+ among hitters with at least 700 PA since 2014.
Turner is knocked down on 5x5 draft boards because his counting stats like runs and RBIs the last 2 years haven't matched his elite slash line, and that's partially because the Dodgers have limited his playing time. With more regular playing time under a new manager, Turner's R and RBI will likely go up (although his slash line may drop with more exposure). I believe in his skills turning into strong fantasy value if he's given enough playing time.
I wasn't 100% sold on Turner this year until recently, but it wasn't skill related: I was scared off by the microfracture surgery he had on his knee this offseason. That is typically a rough surgery for athletes, but Turner says his knee feels good:
Justin Turner with a solo HR. 5 for 10 in Cactus League. Said Microfracture surgery gave him relief, doesn't worry about knee anymore— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) March 21, 2016
Spring training statistics are generally nonsense; what's important is that Turner feels better than he did last year. Turner's current Yahoo ADP is over 200, and while he might be limited during the first month as the Dodgers build him back from the surgery, I think there's a strong chance he significantly outperforms that draft slot in 2016.
Follow on twitter at @TimFinn521