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I ranked our Top 100 outfielders in six tiers, with two players in the first tier. 14 in the second tier, 11 in the third tier, 20 in the fourth tier, 27 in the fifth tier and 26 in the sixth tier. If I am drafting, I want to fill my outfield with five outfielders from the first four tiers.
First Tier
There is no question that Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are the cream of the crop, and deserving to be the only two in the first tier. They are the best two players in the game, and I don't see anyone unseating them this season, although a few guys in the second tier could make their way into the first tier in 2017.
Second Tier
George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton and Mookie Betts all could put up 2016 seasons worthy of a push into the first tier in 2017. Springer has the skills to put up a 30 home run, 25-30 stolen base season. Giancarlo Stanton, if healthy, could hit 45-50 home runs in the new dimensions of Marlins Park. Mookie Betts could put up a season where he hits 20 home runs, scores 110 runs, drives in 80 runs, steals 25 bases and hits .300, which would also be deserving of a spot in the first tier.
The second tier also includes some power guys like Jose Bautista Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez that you can count on for 25+ home runs, and in some cases, 35+ home runs per season. The tier also has its share of hitters who can do it all, hit for average, hit for power, steal some bases including George Springer, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan Braun, A.J. Pollock and Starling Marte. Guys i like in this tier are Springer, who I think will break out this season, Braun, assuming he is healthy, McCutchen and Blackmon.
Third Tier
The third tier is littered with guys that have a question mark heading into the season, including:
Carlos Gonzalez: Was 2015 his career year?
Jason Heyward: Is he a better real life player than fantasy player?
Matt Kemp: Can he build on his great 2015 second half?
Miguel Sano: Sure, the power is real, but can he make enough contact to get to it 30+ times this season?
Yasiel Puig: Can he have a bounce back season in 2016? (Yes)
I like the last three guys on this list, Kemp, Sano and Puig, to perform very well this season. I think Sano can lead the American League in home runs, and Puig appears to much more focusing coming into the season, and has lost some weight, as requested, in the offseason.
Fourth Tier
The fourth tier has some young outfielders who we could see in the second or third tier next season, including Cubs outfielders Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber, and Mets outfielder Michael Conforto. All three come into the season with less than a full season of big league experience, but have the bats to move up these rankings quickly.
Indians outfielder Michael Brantley looks misplaced in the fourth tier, and maybe I am too low on him, but he is coming off shoulder surgery, so there is a chance he is not 100% healthy once the season starts, and that could impact his performance for fantasy owners.
I like a few power hitters in this tier, including Mark Trumbo, who is moving to Camden Yards this season. Another power guy I like is Athletic's outfielder Khris Davis. He moves to o.Co Stadium, so the home run totals may disappoint, but I have a feeling he could still reach the 30 home run level assuming he plays regularly.
Fifth Tier
This tier has several players who could disappoint this season, including Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton, who I wrote about on Tuesday, Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson who is working on a swing adjustment, and Twins outfielder Byron Buxton, whose bat may not be major league ready yet.
That said, I do like Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana in this tier. He has plenty of questions to answer himself, but one FanGraphs writer compared him to Astros outfielder George Springer today, so drink that in. Two other outfielders I like in this tier are Phillies young outfielder Aaron Altherr, who could put up a 15 home run, 15 stolen base season in 2016, and Nationals outfielder Jayson Werth, who appears a bit undervalued this season. Yes, he is older than most outfielders, but I think he might have one more good season left in him.
Top 100 Tiered Outfielder Rankings for 2016
Rank |
NFBC ADP |
Tier |
Name |
Tm |
1 |
1.82 |
1 |
Mike Trout |
LAA |
2 |
2.72 |
1 |
Bryce Harper |
WSN |
3 |
10.29 |
2 |
Giancarlo Stanton |
MIA |
4 |
13.71 |
2 |
Andrew McCutchen |
PIT |
5 |
18.01 |
2 |
Mookie Betts |
BOS |
6 |
26.03 |
2 |
Jose Bautista |
TOR |
7 |
15.28 |
2 |
A.J. Pollock |
ARI |
8 |
11.08 |
2 |
Kris Bryant |
CHC |
9 |
23.52 |
2 |
Starling Marte |
PIT |
10 |
25.05 |
2 |
George Springer |
HOU |
11 |
23.95 |
2 |
Chris Davis |
BAL |
12 |
36.76 |
2 |
J.D. Martinez |
DET |
13 |
49.06 |
2 |
Justin Upton |
DET |
14 |
44.18 |
2 |
Ryan Braun |
MIL |
15 |
45.56 |
2 |
Nelson Cruz |
SEA |
16 |
35.92 |
2 |
Charlie Blackmon |
COL |
17 |
58.87 |
3 |
Adam Jones |
BAL |
18 |
57.82 |
3 |
Carlos Gonzalez |
COL |
19 |
38.84 |
3 |
Yoenis Cespedes |
NYM |
20 |
68.93 |
3 |
Jason Heyward |
CHC |
21 |
86.79 |
3 |
Yasiel Puig |
LAD |
22 |
61.15 |
3 |
Miguel Sano |
MIN |
23 |
52.94 |
3 |
Carlos Gomez |
HOU |
25 |
107.51 |
3 |
Hunter Pence |
SFG |
26 |
51.08 |
3 |
Lorenzo Cain |
KCR |
27 |
82.64 |
3 |
Matt Kemp |
SDP |
24 |
31.92 |
4 |
Kyle Schwarber |
CHC |
28 |
94.8 |
4 |
Gregory Polanco |
PIT |
29 |
127.98 |
4 |
Hanley Ramirez |
BOS |
30 |
101.51 |
4 |
Jacoby Ellsbury |
NYY |
31 |
111.15 |
4 |
Corey Dickerson |
TBR |
32 |
116.01 |
4 |
Kole Calhoun |
LAA |
33 |
140.79 |
4 |
Shin-Soo Choo |
TEX |
34 |
103.83 |
4 |
Christian Yelich |
MIA |
36 |
141.23 |
4 |
Brett Gardner |
NYY |
37 |
135.13 |
4 |
Khris Davis |
OAK |
39 |
213.5 |
4 |
Josh Reddick |
OAK |
40 |
188.18 |
4 |
Michael Conforto |
NYM |
41 |
101.38 |
4 |
Adam Eaton |
CHW |
42 |
173.07 |
4 |
Curtis Granderson |
NYM |
46 |
103.49 |
4 |
Ben Revere |
WSN |
50 |
186.43 |
4 |
Dexter Fowler |
FA |
52 |
102.72 |
4 |
Michael Brantley |
CLE |
60 |
233.17 |
4 |
Marcell Ozuna |
MIA |
62 |
182.3 |
4 |
Jorge Soler |
CHC |
70 |
177.1 |
4 |
Mark Trumbo |
BAL |
35 |
183.91 |
5 |
Alex Gordon |
KCR |
38 |
118.04 |
5 |
David Peralta |
ARI |
43 |
73.75 |
5 |
Billy Hamilton |
CIN |
44 |
250.56 |
5 |
Matt Holliday |
STL |
45 |
173.74 |
5 |
Joc Pederson |
LAD |
47 |
151.09 |
5 |
Brandon Belt |
SFG |
48 |
149.05 |
5 |
Billy Burns |
OAK |
49 |
178.5 |
5 |
Randal Grichuk |
STL |
51 |
181.12 |
5 |
Jay Bruce |
CIN |
53 |
206.1 |
5 |
Gerardo Parra |
COL |
54 |
199.27 |
5 |
Ben Zobrist |
CHC |
55 |
206.33 |
5 |
Wil Myers |
SDP |
56 |
157.81 |
5 |
Kevin Pillar |
TOR |
57 |
264.48 |
5 |
Melky Cabrera |
CHW |
58 |
180.9 |
5 |
Delino DeShields |
TEX |
59 |
205.73 |
5 |
Stephen Piscotty |
STL |
61 |
186.04 |
5 |
Ender Inciarte |
ATL |
63 |
223.88 |
5 |
Evan Gattis |
HOU |
64 |
245.09 |
5 |
Steven Souza |
TBR |
66 |
171.96 |
5 |
Byron Buxton |
MIN |
69 |
207.77 |
5 |
Yasmany Tomas |
ARI |
71 |
297.76 |
5 |
Jayson Werth |
WSN |
73 |
303.59 |
5 |
Colby Rasmus |
HOU |
74 |
311.39 |
5 |
Domingo Santana |
MIL |
75 |
407.23 |
5 |
Andre Ethier |
LAD |
82 |
249.27 |
5 |
Odubel Herrera |
PHI |
88 |
324.74 |
5 |
Aaron Altherr |
PHI |
65 |
253.59 |
6 |
Denard Span |
SFG |
67 |
320.59 |
6 |
Carlos Beltran |
NYY |
68 |
269.96 |
6 |
Kevin Kiermaier |
TBR |
72 |
207.94 |
6 |
Josh Harrison |
PIT |
76 |
281.22 |
6 |
Eddie Rosario |
MIN |
78 |
289.76 |
6 |
Jarrod Dyson |
KCR |
78 |
252.08 |
6 |
Rusney Castillo |
BOS |
79 |
320.95 |
6 |
Nori Aoki |
SFG |
80 |
244.44 |
6 |
Danny Valencia |
OAK |
81 |
324.65 |
6 |
Jackie Bradley Jr. |
BOS |
83 |
320.88 |
6 |
Brandon Moss |
STL |
84 |
328.97 |
6 |
Mark Canha |
OAK |
85 |
337.97 |
6 |
Joey Gallo |
TEX |
86 |
242.56 |
6 |
Cameron Maybin |
ATL |
87 |
364.48 |
6 |
Nick Markakis |
ATL |
89 |
294.63 |
6 |
Hyun-Soo Kim |
BAL |
90 |
418.11 |
6 |
Lonnie Chisenhall |
CLE |
91 |
472.05 |
6 |
Carl Crawford |
LAD |
92 |
357.39 |
6 |
Desmond Jennings |
TBR |
93 |
323.6 |
6 |
Leonys Martin |
TEX |
94 |
|
6 |
Eduardo Escobar |
MIN |
95 |
357.82 |
6 |
Anthony Gose |
DET |
96 |
482.96 |
6 |
Derek Dietrich |
MIA |
97 |
338.23 |
6 |
Rajai Davis |
DET |
98 |
287.8 |
6 |
Avisail Garcia |
CHW |
99 |
473.31 |
6 |
Adam Duvall |
CIN |
100 |
506.33 |
6 |
Ben Paulsen |
COL |
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