CBSSports.com NL-Only Analysts League: Auction Draft analysis

In some ways, drafting a fantasy baseball roster, particularly in an auction scenario, is like being a chef coming up with a recipe. Maybe you make five great dishes, but inevitably, if you try enough new ideas, something just won't taste right.

That was my reaction to my performance in Thursday's CBSSports.com Analysts League NL-Only auction draft. I've been in variants of this league — filled with industry writers and guys with names people know way more than mine — for three seasons now, making this my sixth such super-fancy draft. And bar none, I like this roster the least.

Things happen. I splurged on a few names early, spending a few dollars more than I maybe should have. The later guys I hated targeted as potential bargains ended up being more popular than I expected, meaning I had to settle for second-tier "bargains." And Jonah Keri apparently stole my draft list, because for a big chunk of the draft he was the one going $1 over me on seemingly every daggone guy.

Before I go on, the participants:

• Mike Kuchera, Fantasy Baseball Express
• Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus
• Philip Ponebshek, Patton & Co.
• Pasko Varnica and Todd Zola, MAstersball
• Daniel Kelley, Fake Teams
• Al Melchior, CBS Sports
• Scott White, CBS Sports
• Rudy Gamble, Razzball
• Jeff Boggis, Fantasy Baseball Empire
• Jonah Keri, CBS Sports
• Heath Cummings, CBS Sports
• Bernie Pleskoff, MLBlogs.com

It's a strong group, one that maybe I don't belong in. I didn't think that until my performance in the draft, so sure, maybe I'm overreacting. Still, there are some lessons to be learned from the mistakes. Let's talk about a few.

• I splurged early on Clayton Kershaw ($41). Having Kershaw is exhilarating. Barring injury, he almost guarantees you a contending spot on the pitching side. But splurging early makes it harder and harder to find competent complements. So you can't be wrong about your next-tier pitchers. I might not be wrong, but by the time I got to them, I didn't have the money to get the guys I had in mind, guys like Patrick Corbin and Aaron Nola. Anthony DeSclafani and Jerad Eickhoff have potential, but my pitching staff worries me, Kershaw or no Kershaw.
• I waited too long on real power. The big-name sluggers passed by for a dollar or two more than I had envisioned, so I let them pass, assuming I'd find a different home-run hitter later. And then, when Carlos Gonzalez came up, it sort of clicked that he was the last big power bat left. It got me into a spot where I had to spend on him if I wanted any hope of rating well in power, so I put $28 down on Gonzalez. It could pay off, but an oft-injured Rockie who could be on the trading block? Risky.
• NL-only leagues bother me, because so much of the offensive talent in baseball right now is in the American League (seriously, look at the shortstops). So I've made the plans each of my two years in this league that I am punting saves. Spending on saves means you have fewer dollars to use elsewhere, and each dollar on offense is crucial. I'm fine with that decision. But then I went and spent on Jonathan Lucroy and Travis d'Arnaud. It's a two-catcher league, so cool. But catchers carry more risk than other position players, and those two carry more risk than the typical catcher. Silly to save only to splurge and cost yourself elsewhere.
• I bet too heavily on my ability to find guys late. I really thought I'd wind up with Jonathan Villar, John Jaso, Derek Dietrich, but other guys had the same ideas.
• Jonah flippin' Keri, y'all. Dude saved his money early, meaning he could top me at every turn late.

In the end, I still have potential here. Mark Reynolds will hit homers in Colorado. Trea Turner should win the Washington job because he's good. I love Addison Russell's chances this year, as well as the likelihood of a bounceback for Yasiel Puig and even more development from Starling Marte. Jose Peraza at $4 was, for me, potentially the steal of the draft.

But I have a lot of worries on offense, and in the end I hate my pitching staff. Maybe I'm overreacting, but I certainly don't see a repeat of last year's second-place performance. It happens. Not every recipe is a five-star. It doesn't mean I'm the worst fantasy owner in the world, but Thursday at least, I didn't feel great about things.

Am I right? Below are all the rosters, with salaries attached.