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Carlos Correa 2016 5x5 projection

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The man, the myth, the legend… profiles Carlos Correa

Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

As I have done during the whole positional series, I will be reviewing my 2016 projections I have for Carlos Correa, my #1 fantasy short stop.

RUNS

Correa is an important cog in the Houston Astros offense.  He's expected to be the 3 hitter the Astros lineup, and between all of the projection systems I've seen, his run total is projected between 80-102.  That whole spectrum would be a strong total but I personally have him slated to score 93 runs, 23rd most in baseball, and the most by any short stop.  While runs are difficult to predict as a large part of them are reliant on other teammates, I'm particularly confident on Correa being able to lead the pack.  His combination of plus speed, plus power, and being followed by a few power hitters should allow him to score plenty of runs this season.

HOME RUNS

As a 20-year-old, Correa had the 39th longest home run and fly ball distance in baseball (297.74 ft).  He blasted 22 home runs, and in 2016 I conservatively have him projected to hit 27 home runs.  The short porch in left field has Correa's name all over it, and I'm sure he'll be giving many fans souvenirs in 2016.

RBI

Correa has Jose Altuve and George Springer hitting before him, both being good on base players, and speedy runners.  With that in mind, I have him projected to drive in 94 runs, which is the 20th highest total in baseball, and the most by any short stop.  The error bars on something like this are high, as so much rides on what his teammates do.  An 80 RBI season seems like his floor, but 100+ is in the cards if Altuve or Springer have a monster year.

STOLEN BASES

Correa swiped 14 in 99 games last year, a 23 steal pace over 162 games.  Seeing that Correa has plus speed, and is has two even faster runners in front of him.  He could swipe at least 15 on his own, and then be on the back end of a few more double steals.  Correa could easily steal more than my projected 21, but seeing as prolific bats seem to get slowed down on the bases these days, an aggressive projected total didn't seem reasonable.

BATTING AVERAGE

I have Correa down for a .281 average, but I've seen everything from .275 to .290, which seems like an appropriate window for him.  Correa does not have enough batted ball information for me to say any projection is rock solid, but with what we have, all of these outcomes are conceivable.  Correa is a supreme talent, so he could supply more in this department, but as of today, him being the third highest projected average of any short stop, but as of today its hard to expect much more or less than the .279 he produced last year, until more info is available.

CONCLUSION

Correa is the no doubt first SS to take in your draft.  He is pre prime, and already has shown off world class ability in all facets of his game.  Not only is his ceiling world class, think 100+ R and RBI with 30 homers, but his floor is also great.  He walks at a high rate; he strikes out at a below league average rate.  He sprays the ball line to line making him difficult to shift against, and with his high hard hit rate, and favorable home park, its hard to envision him entering prolonged slumps.  I'm not a fan of investing in a player because of positional scarcity, but mock drafts where you take Correa first, sure do give you some flexibility later on.