clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Hockey: Advanced Stats 1st Edition 2016-2017

Why you need to pick up Cam Atkinson.

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the year I will do a deep dive into advanced stats to give you some analytics for the season so far. Below are 12 points from the most recent deep dive into the stats.

1. No team in the last five years has shot over 11% or below 5.72% on a full year average.

The following teams are over 11% currently: NY Rangers (12.39%).

The following teams are under 5.72% currently Vancouver Canucks (5.31%), Ottawa Senators (5.31%) and Buffalo Sabres (5.18%)

2.  No team in the last 5 years has had a save percentage of over 94.04 and  under 89.27

The following teams are over 94.04%: Chicago Blackhawks (95%), Minnesota Wild (94.61%), Montreal Canadiens (94.44%), Washington Capitals (94.37%)

The following teams are under 80.27%: Philadelphia Flyers (89.05%).

3. Top CORSI For teams per 60 minutes: Toronto (61.78), Boston (59.59), Pittsburgh (59.57) and Philadelphia (59.37). This means these teams are generating more shots for then opposing teams. The fact that the Flyers also have the most goals against is a testament to quality shots and poor goaltending against them.

4. Top CORSI Against teams per 60 minutes: Arizona (64.26), NY Islanders (62.2) and Toronto (61.30). If you want to divulge into Toronto's struggles it's clear as day on 3 and 4. They are getting offensive opportunities just as bountiful as defensive let downs. It's essentially an all-star game with little defense occurring.

5. Going further down this tunnel -€” FF (Fenwick For which combines shots + shot attempts missing the net) shows that the worst two teams in the league are Arizona and NY Islanders, both of whom are mustering no offense.

6. ‘FA' (Fenwick Against measures the combined shots + shot attempts AGAINST) the following teams have created stifling defenses which limits the shots on their own net: St. Louis (488), Carolina (493) and Boston (518)

7. Face-offs. The following teams have the most face-offs in the offensive zone: Ottawa (38.45%), Carolina (37.09%) and Los Angeles (35.90%). The following teams have the most defensive zone face-offs: Dallas (39.03%), Arizona (37%) and Buffalo (36.42%).

8. Tampa Bay, Dallas, Nashville, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh all have over 15 PP goals. Dallas, Nashville and Philadelphia also lead the league in Short-handed points allowed (combined 11) due to the nature of their strong offensive push on their power plays.

9. Among players with more than 5 assists on the year, the following players have all had less than 10% of them as primary assists. This doesn't mean that their stats are fake but I would keep an eye on them as their points might be inflated a bit.

0-10%: Paul Martin

10-20%: Sam Bennett, Brandon Manning, Mika Zibanejad, Sebastian Aho, Conor Sheary, Chris Kunitz,

30-40%: Jordan Eberle, John Tavares, Nikita Kucherov,

40-50%: Mark Scheifele, Vladimir Tarasenko, Victor Rask, Jamie Benn, Patrick Wiercioch, Nate Schmidt, Travis Zajac, Matt Cullen, Shea Weber, Brent Burns, Mitch Marner, Alex Galchenyuk, and Filip Forsberg

10: IPP (Individual Points Percentage - % of goals scored while player was on the ice that a player had a point on) this stat tells two tales, if you are a bad player on this list it's because less than 3 goals were scored while you were on the ice and you just happened to be part of it. If you are elite, then you are either a puck hog or vastly influential to your teams success, either way a fantasy asset for sure. A nuance to this stat, it adds the Goals Scored and then adds the assists so you can actually be over 100%, for example Cam has a 20% goal percentage (20% of goals scored while he's on the ice are by him) now remove those goals and he's been a part of 100% of the assists on goals scored while he's on the ice -€” take the 20% goals and 100% assists and he has 120% points.

120%: Cam Atkinson

113%: Ryan Getzlaf

100%: Jamie Benn, Matt Cullen, Brandon Saad, Andre Burakovsky, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Johnny Gaudreau, Sven Baertschi, Jamie McGinn, Jonathan Drouin, Marko Dano, Joel Erisskson-Ek, Pavel Zacha, Brandon Sutter, Brad Richardson, Zemgus Girgensons, Tom Gilbert, Ryan White, Ryan O'Reilly, Michael Haley, Curtis McKenzie, Tim Schaller, Nick Lappin, Jared Boll, Michal Rozsival, Daniel Winnik, Alex Burrows and Milan Michalek.

11. Shot percentages.

Ones that are way too high and will regress: Michael Grabner (28%), Kevin Hayes (28%), Rickard Rakell (23%), Sidney Crosby (22%), TJ Oshie (22%), Jaden Schwartz (21%) Matt Duchene (21%), Nikita Kucherov (21%), Phillip Danault (21%), Evgeni Malkin (21%) and Patrik Laine (20%)

Ones that are way too low and will increase: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (0%), Kris Letang (0%), Colton Parayko (0%), Dion Phaneuf (0%), Keith Yandle (0%), Mark Giordano (0%), Duncan Keith (0%), Patric Hornqvist (2%), Taylor Hall (3%), Deric Brassard (3%), Dustin Brown (3%), Jonathan Toews (3%), Cam Atkinson (3%), Roman Josi (3%), Erik Karlsson (3%), Torey Krug (3%).

12. Take-aways from all of this data (if you've made it this far into the article)
A. Expect the Rangers points to start to decrease and Vancouver, Buffalo and Ottawa to increase

B. Expect solid continued offense with terrible +/- from Toronto, and expect minimal offense in the near future from Arizona and NY Islanders.

C. Expect solid +/- from Boston, St. Louis and Carolina

D. Notable players whose numbers should decline a bit: Mark Scheifele, John Tavares, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Matt Duchene and Vladimir Tarasenko

E. Notable players whose numbers should increase a bit: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kris Letang, Jonathan Toews, Cam Atkinson, Roman Josi and Erik Karlsson

F. Expect these goalies to get more porous: Braden Holtby, Carey Price, Corey Crawford and Devan Dubnyk

G. Expect these goalies to improve: Steve Mason and Michael Neuvirth