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On Monday, I published my top 25 starting pitcher rankings for 2017, and today, I publish part 2 of my rankings, taking a look at starters ranked 26-50.
Before I post some quick thoughts on part 2 of my starting pitcher rankings, here are my rankings to date, along with Dave's projections for the players I ranked.
Ray's Early 2017 Position Rankings
Dave's Early Position Rankings & Projections
Dave's 2017 Projections
Note: Dave only projected players ranked in Ray's top 20 rankings
Quick Thoughts
Several starters outperformed their draft day rankings in 2016 including Royals starter Danny Duffy, Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez, Rockies starter Jon Gray and others. Duffy made 26 starts, winning 12 games with a 3.56 ERA while striking out more than batter per inning and limiting his walks to just over two walks per nine, and I think he can take another step up in 2017.
Gray was excellent in 2016, winning 10 of his 29 starts with a 4.61 ERA, but to a 3.60 FIP, while striking out nearly ten batters per nine innings. He is prone to the disaster start every now and then, and when he does they are DISASTERS, but that comes with pitching in Coors Field. I think Gray can continue to mature as a starter under the tutelage of new manager Bud Black and we could see a breakout from him next season.
Heading into the 2016 season, many felt that J.A. Happ had made sustainable improvements in 2015, but a move to Toronto wasn't the best places for him. He proved most of us wrong by winning 20 games and pitching to a 3.18 ERA in 2016. Pitching to Russell Martin probably helped, but I am not expected him to repeat his 2016 success next season.
I never thought I would see the day where Mariners starter Felix Hernandez would be ranked so low, but the mileage on his arm has finally caught up to him, it appears. After 10 straight seasons of 190+ innings pitched, Hernandez managed just 153.1 innings, as he made just 25 starts due to injury. His strikeout rate cratered and his walk rate jumped to just under 4 walks per nine innings, not the stats that we expected from the former ace. There is a chance he jumps back into the top 30 next season, but there is just as likely a chance that he falls further in these rankings.
I might have my Dodger Blue sunglasses on, but I think Julio Urias could actually outperform my ranking in 2017. The 20 year old struck out nearly ten batters every nine innings, and pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 3.17 FIP despite giving up a .358 BABIP in his 18 appearances, so that is likely to drop next season, and with it, his ERA and FIP should as well. He pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA in the second half, so the talent is here for a breakout.
Early Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2017 - 26-50
Note: Stats are courtesy of FanGraphs
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
W |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
HR/FB |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
|
26 |
Danny Duffy |
12 |
26 |
161.2 |
9.30 |
2.06 |
36.20% |
13.80% |
3.56 |
3.99 |
3.84 |
2.40 |
|
|
27 |
Danny Salazar |
11 |
25 |
137.1 |
10.55 |
4.13 |
47.80% |
12.80% |
3.87 |
3.74 |
3.74 |
2.50 |
|
|
28 |
Aaron Sanchez |
15 |
30 |
192 |
7.55 |
2.95 |
54.40% |
10.70% |
3.00 |
3.55 |
3.75 |
3.90 |
|
|
29 |
Julio Teheran |
7 |
30 |
188 |
7.99 |
1.96 |
39.10% |
10.00% |
3.21 |
3.69 |
4.13 |
3.20 |
|
|
30 |
John Lackey |
11 |
29 |
188.1 |
8.60 |
2.53 |
41.00% |
12.90% |
3.35 |
3.81 |
3.80 |
3.10 |
|
|
31 |
Michael Fulmer |
11 |
26 |
159 |
7.47 |
2.38 |
49.10% |
11.20% |
3.06 |
3.76 |
3.95 |
3.00 |
|
|
32 |
Tanner Roark |
16 |
33 |
207.2 |
7.37 |
3.16 |
48.80% |
9.60% |
2.86 |
3.82 |
4.18 |
3.10 |
|
|
33 |
Rich Hill |
FA |
12 |
20 |
110.1 |
10.52 |
2.69 |
45.30% |
4.20% |
2.12 |
2.39 |
3.36 |
3.80 |
|
34 |
J.A. Happ |
Blue Jays |
20 |
32 |
195 |
7.52 |
2.77 |
42.50% |
11.10% |
3.18 |
3.96 |
4.18 |
3.20 |
|
35 |
Gerrit Cole |
7 |
21 |
116 |
7.60 |
2.79 |
45.60% |
6.80% |
3.88 |
3.33 |
4.02 |
2.50 |
|
|
36 |
Jon Gray |
10 |
29 |
168 |
9.91 |
3.16 |
43.50% |
12.80% |
4.61 |
3.60 |
3.61 |
3.70 |
|
|
37 |
Marcus Stroman |
Blue Jays |
9 |
32 |
204 |
7.32 |
2.38 |
60.10% |
16.50% |
4.37 |
3.71 |
3.41 |
3.60 |
|
38 |
Carlos Rodon |
9 |
28 |
165 |
9.16 |
2.95 |
44.10% |
13.80% |
4.04 |
4.01 |
3.89 |
2.70 |
|
|
39 |
Kevin Gausman |
9 |
30 |
179.2 |
8.72 |
2.35 |
44.10% |
15.40% |
3.61 |
4.10 |
3.77 |
3.00 |
|
|
40 |
Vince Velasquez |
8 |
24 |
131 |
10.44 |
3.09 |
34.80% |
14.90% |
4.12 |
3.96 |
3.67 |
2.20 |
|
|
41 |
Alex Reyes |
2 |
5 |
28.2 |
9.10 |
4.08 |
42.90% |
0.00% |
2.20 |
2.48 |
4.40 |
1.00 |
|
|
42 |
Jerad Eickhoff |
Phillies |
11 |
33 |
197.1 |
7.62 |
1.92 |
40.70% |
13.10% |
3.65 |
4.19 |
4.15 |
2.90 |
|
43 |
Garrett Richards |
1 |
6 |
34.2 |
8.83 |
3.89 |
45.80% |
7.10% |
2.34 |
3.32 |
3.91 |
0.70 |
|
|
44 |
Sonny Gray |
5 |
22 |
117 |
7.23 |
3.23 |
53.90% |
17.50% |
5.69 |
4.67 |
4.13 |
0.70 |
|
|
45 |
Alex Cobb |
1 |
5 |
22 |
6.55 |
2.86 |
52.50% |
21.70% |
8.59 |
5.60 |
4.39 |
-0.10 |
|
|
46 |
Felix Hernandez |
11 |
25 |
153.1 |
7.16 |
3.82 |
50.20% |
14.50% |
3.82 |
4.63 |
4.45 |
1.00 |
|
|
47 |
Julio Urias |
4 |
15 |
69.1 |
10.00 |
3.50 |
41.20% |
6.90% |
3.25 |
3.02 |
3.66 |
1.80 |
|
|
48 |
James Paxton |
Mariners |
6 |
20 |
121 |
8.70 |
1.79 |
48.10% |
8.20% |
3.79 |
2.80 |
3.35 |
3.50 |
|
49 |
Michael Pineda |
6 |
32 |
175.2 |
10.61 |
2.72 |
45.80% |
17.00% |
4.82 |
3.80 |
3.30 |
3.20 |
|
|
50 |
Bartolo Colon |
Braves |
15 |
33 |
190.1 |
6.01 |
1.51 |
43.00% |
11.50% |
3.45 |
4.00 |
4.18 |
2.80 |
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