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I published my Early top 50 outfielder rankings last Monday, and today I am publishing part 1 of my early top 50 starting pitcher rankings.
Before I post some quick thoughts on my starting pitcher rankings, here are my rankings to date, along with Dave's projections for the players I ranked.
Ray's Early 2017 Position Rankings
Dave's Early Position Rankings & Projections
Dave's 2017 Projections
Note: Dave only projected players ranked in Ray's top 20 rankings
Quick Thoughts
In 2015, there were 28 starters who pitched 200 or more innings. In 2016, that number dropped to just 15, so finding a reliable ace starter to head your staff proved to be difficult as many aces fell to injury in 2016, including Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg and others.
As you can see from my top 10 starters, there really isn't any surprises with the exception of Tigers ace Justin Verlander who bounced back in a big way and should have won the American League Cy Young award, but the voters focused on wins instead of the more advanced pitching statistics that we all use now. After a sub-par 2015 season, Verlander returned to being the ace that we all knew in 2014, winning 16 games with a low 3.00 ERA while striking out just over ten batters per nine innings.
One could argue that Mets ace Noah Syndergaard should be ranked at #3 ahead of Madison Bumgarner and I wouldn't disagree too vehemently. That said, Syndergaard dealt with some elbow issues, which he pitched through in 2016, so I am a little worried that he will be the next Mets starting pitcher to land on the disabled list for a lengthy stay.
It seems weird to see the National League Cy Young award runner-up Kyle Hendricks ranked at 15, but I think he had a career year, and won't duplicate his 16 wins and low 2.00 ERA in 2017. He has a great defense behind him, but he stranded 81% of the batters that reached against him last season, well above his 76% career rate, so that should regress in 2017, as will his .250 BABIP.
Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda comes in at #23 in my rankings as he had a very solid rookie season, winning 16 games with a 3.48 ERA and struck out more than a batter per inning and limited the free pass as well. I think Pirates starter Jameson Taillon could have a breakout 2017 season, as he pitched very well in his 18 starts last season, pitching to a 3.38 ERA and 3.71 FIP. He might be the ace of the Pirates staff next year barring a bounce back from Gerrit Cole.
I would have ranked Rangers starter Cole Hamels higher until I took a closer look at his WHIP, which jumped from 1.19 un 2015 to 1.31 last season, mainly due to a bump in his walk rate from 7.1% to 9.1%. He is still striking out nearly a batter per inning, and should win 14-17 games for the Rangers, but if the walks continue at this rate, it might be the beginning of his decline.
Early Top 25 Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2017
Note: Stats are courtesy of FanGraphs
|
Rank |
Name |
Team |
W |
GS |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
HR/FB |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
|
1 |
Clayton Kershaw |
12 |
21 |
149 |
10.39 |
0.66 |
49.40% |
7.50% |
1.69 |
1.80 |
2.28 |
6.50 |
|
|
2 |
Max Scherzer |
20 |
34 |
228.1 |
11.19 |
2.21 |
33.00% |
11.90% |
2.96 |
3.24 |
3.37 |
5.60 |
|
|
3 |
Madison Bumgarner |
15 |
34 |
226.2 |
9.97 |
2.14 |
39.60% |
10.70% |
2.74 |
3.24 |
3.54 |
4.90 |
|
|
4 |
Noah Syndergaard |
14 |
30 |
182.2 |
10.64 |
2.12 |
51.20% |
8.70% |
2.61 |
2.30 |
2.68 |
6.40 |
|
|
5 |
Chris Sale |
17 |
32 |
226.2 |
9.25 |
1.79 |
41.20% |
11.90% |
3.34 |
3.46 |
3.58 |
5.20 |
|
|
6 |
Johnny Cueto |
Giants |
18 |
32 |
219.2 |
8.11 |
1.84 |
50.20% |
8.40% |
2.79 |
2.96 |
3.42 |
5.50 |
|
7 |
Corey Kluber |
18 |
32 |
215 |
9.50 |
2.39 |
44.50% |
10.80% |
3.14 |
3.26 |
3.50 |
5.10 |
|
|
8 |
Jon Lester |
19 |
32 |
202.2 |
8.75 |
2.31 |
46.90% |
12.20% |
2.44 |
3.41 |
3.47 |
4.30 |
|
|
9 |
Jake Arrieta |
Cubs |
18 |
31 |
197.1 |
8.67 |
3.47 |
52.60% |
11.10% |
3.10 |
3.52 |
3.68 |
3.80 |
|
10 |
Justin Verlander |
16 |
34 |
227.2 |
10.04 |
2.25 |
33.70% |
10.90% |
3.04 |
3.48 |
3.78 |
5.20 |
|
|
11 |
Stephen Strasburg |
Nationals |
15 |
24 |
147.2 |
11.15 |
2.68 |
39.50% |
10.60% |
3.60 |
2.92 |
3.20 |
3.90 |
|
12 |
Yu Darvish |
7 |
17 |
100.1 |
11.84 |
2.78 |
40.40% |
12.00% |
3.41 |
3.09 |
3.19 |
2.70 |
|
|
13 |
Carlos Carrasco |
Indians |
11 |
25 |
146.1 |
9.23 |
2.09 |
48.50% |
16.30% |
3.32 |
3.72 |
3.32 |
2.50 |
|
14 |
Jacob deGrom |
Mets |
7 |
24 |
148 |
8.70 |
2.19 |
45.60% |
11.50% |
3.04 |
3.32 |
3.47 |
3.30 |
|
15 |
Kyle Hendricks |
Cubs |
16 |
30 |
188 |
8.09 |
2.06 |
48.70% |
9.60% |
2.15 |
3.20 |
3.55 |
4.40 |
|
16 |
Masahiro Tanaka |
14 |
31 |
199.2 |
7.44 |
1.62 |
48.20% |
12.00% |
3.07 |
3.51 |
3.61 |
4.60 |
|
|
17 |
David Price |
17 |
35 |
230 |
8.92 |
1.96 |
43.70% |
13.50% |
3.99 |
3.60 |
3.52 |
4.50 |
|
|
18 |
Jose Quintana |
White Sox |
13 |
32 |
208 |
7.83 |
2.16 |
40.40% |
9.50% |
3.20 |
3.56 |
4.03 |
4.80 |
|
19 |
Chris Archer |
9 |
33 |
201.1 |
10.42 |
3.00 |
47.80% |
16.20% |
4.02 |
3.81 |
3.41 |
3.10 |
|
|
20 |
Zack Greinke |
Dbacks |
13 |
26 |
158.2 |
7.60 |
2.33 |
45.90% |
13.90% |
4.37 |
4.12 |
3.98 |
2.20 |
|
21 |
Cole Hamels |
Rangers |
15 |
32 |
200.2 |
8.97 |
3.45 |
49.60% |
14.00% |
3.32 |
3.98 |
3.85 |
3.00 |
|
22 |
Kenta Maeda |
Dodgers |
16 |
32 |
175.2 |
9.17 |
2.56 |
43.90% |
11.80% |
3.48 |
3.58 |
3.70 |
3.30 |
|
23 |
Carlos Martinez |
16 |
31 |
195.1 |
8.02 |
3.23 |
56.40% |
10.60% |
3.04 |
3.61 |
3.81 |
3.30 |
|
|
24 |
Rick Porcello |
Red Sox |
22 |
33 |
223 |
7.63 |
1.29 |
43.10% |
9.30% |
3.15 |
3.40 |
3.89 |
5.20 |
|
25 |
Jameson Taillon |
5 |
18 |
104 |
7.36 |
1.47 |
52.40% |
15.50% |
3.38 |
3.71 |
3.43 |
1.70 |
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