Pitch Arsenal Scores - End of Season Update

Continuing the trend from my last update of honoring the recently passed great contributors to our society (Gene Wilder and John Saunders are still missed), I submit the following .gif of a baseball player that had a joy for baseball that few players ever show, along with hall of fame talent.

Anyway, I’ve detailed my method (shamelessly borrowed from Eno Sarris and the team at Rotographs) in previous posts, so I won’t go over it here. Basically, I looked at the swinging strike rate and ground ball rate on each pitch type a pitcher throws and gave them a score based on their value relative to league average. I totaled up all the individual pitch scores and ended up with a single number for every starting pitcher. I cut the list off at 100 to keep it readable. Plus, they start to get pretty mediocre at that point anyway. This list is up to date for the whole 2016 season. Here is the big list:

Keep in mind that it doesn’t take too many starts to appear on this list (200 four seams, 100 sinkers, 50 offspeed or breaking pitches), so some more recent additions to rotations will show up.

There are some of the big names near the top like Syndergaard, Carrasco, Arrieta, Kershaw, Kluber, and Lester. We all expected them. I’m most interested in the surprises, especially those in the top 30, so I will focus on them.

It is nice to see Stroman making good on his potential, both with his results later in the year and with his score here. I still think he has upside. James Paxton’s crazy new velocity boosts all his pitches, but the results still weren’t great for much of the year. However, his arsenal is now nasty and his FIP and xFIP are all just above or below 3.0, so if he can stay healthy (a big IF), he could be a top 20 pitcher next year. His September was a good way to finish (2.06 FIP, 2.65 xFIP).

Oh, I haven’t talked about the elephant in the room yet? Yeah, Mike Montgomery is #1. What? Isn’t he the Cubs sixth starter after being a reliever/swingman in Seattle? Yes, yes he is. I think some small samples are at play somewhat here, but he does have above average ground ball and swinging strike rates on three different pitches, which is rare. His four-seam gets a ridiculous 58% (35% is average) ground ball rate, while his change-up has a 28% swinging strike rate, double the league average. I don’t think he is the best pitcher in baseball, but given a job, he will be ownable in all leagues next season and could be a reliable option.

There are some young guns on this list like Taillon, Manaea, Cody Reed, Alex Reyes, Aaron Sanchez, Steven Matz, Tyler Anderson, Michael Fulmer, and then... some odd ones like Robert Gsellman, Zach Neal, and Brock Stewart. The first group all get my seal of approval and should be good options for the 2017 season. The second group will require some more discussion.

Gsellman might actually belong in the first group, even though he was never as highly touted as most of those guys. I like what he showed this year. At 23, in his first season in the majors, he put up a 2.63 FIP and 3.38 xFIP, with a 22.7% K% and an 8.1% walk rate. That is a top 25 starting pitcher in fantasy, for sure. It’s only 44 innings and his role next year is uncertain, but I prefer him to all the guys in that second group and to his teammate, Seth Lugo.

Zach Neal is weird. I don’t know him personally, so I can’t comment on his personality, but I mean his stats are weird. He had a 9.6% K%! Or, if you prefer, a 3.47 K/9. Sure he had an elite walk rate, but that is ridiculous! He had one pitch that could get swings and misses, a cutter, with a very, very good 20% SwStr%. Every other pitch fools no one. He got above average grounders on two pitches. That’s really it. I’m not sure why he ended up so high on this list, but he did get a ton of ground balls. I’m going to stay away until he shows he can get his K% into the 17% range or higher.

Brock Stewart tore up the minors this year en route to the Dodgers. Well, things did not go so well in the majors, with a 5.79 ERA, 5.90 FIP, and 5.03 xFIP. The arsenal score likes him because his two secondary pitches really fooled hitters and his slider also generated 75% ground balls. However, those things alone aren’t enough for me to buy him for 2017 yet. He probably won’t have a job to start the year and he needs to cut down on the home runs and boost the K% a little to keep his ERA below 4.

That’s all the names from the top 30 or so I thought were worth discussion or that I hadn’t discussed recently elsewhere, but let me know in the comments if you have any questions about anyone on the list. I can certainly let you know how they got to their total score (which pitches, grounders, swinging strikes, a combination, etc.) or answer any questions about them in general.

Coming up next time: a comparison of arsenal scores from 2015 and 2016 to see whose arsenal improved or declined the most this season. Tschus!