Fantasy Hockey: Rookie-O-Meter

This is not my first rookie piece nor will it be my last. We have such a dynamic group of young players among the league us this year.

Last year (2015-2016) through 6 games there was one rookie with 3+ points.
Two years ago...one rookie with 3+ points
Three years ago...no rookies with over 2+ points.

This year we have 15:

That is 15 players with at least 3 points.  Below I will illustrate what to expect out of these players given this track record -€” can Auston Matthews score 131 points as his pace suggests? No, I definitely don't think he can.

The outliers (less than 10% chance they keep the pace):
Anthony Beauvillier (1% owned).  He is playing just 9 minutes a game and he has hit a very fortunate streak but he won't eclipse 25 points this year. Do not pick up.

Michael Matheson (6% owned). He is on the second unit for both 5v5 and PP and he'll get his chances but 2 goals in 5 games is not going to be the standard for him, in fact he's never scored more than 8 goals above collegiate level in a season. He would only be own able in very deep leagues.

Jakob Chychrun (3% owned). Same as the previous two, he just won't see the time to get to this sustainable level, I'd put him finishing in the high 20's in points. Only own able in the deepest of leagues.

Surprises but possibly legitimate (25% chance they keep the pace).
Auston Matthews (95% owned). If you slowed it down to a point per game pace, I think that's very realistic, he can hit 82 point, he can't hit 131 points. Now the reason I put him in this category is that, if he gets hurt I could see a situation where he has a strong pace and maybe scores 70ish points in 50ish games.

Nikita Zaitsev (8% owned). The kid has talent and is playing some solid. The undrafted rookie from Russia was originally slated for third line minutes but has been playing anything but since then.

The Rookie has talent but not this much (50% chance they keep the pace)
William Nylander (67% owned). He will be the beneficiary of much of Auston's production while they stay on a line together and they have certainly shown great chemistry. If you slightly discount his production, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see Nylander up with Auston around 80-90 points at the end of the year. This is what makes this year so exciting, I honestly think there is a 50 percent chance we see a line of two rookies scoring 80+ points together.

Zach Werenski (50% owned). The tricky part with these is that one extra point and it extrapolates out to an additional 20 points. If he produced 4 points in 4 games I'd put him at a 75% chance. It is abundantly clear in 2 games time that he is the future defensive star of this team. Move over Seth Jones you've been usurped. He will be scoring high 60's in points and is a MUST OWN Defenseman!

Sebastian Aho (29% owned). 82 points seems aggressive, much like Werenski, if you moved him down to a mid 60 point pace than it is much more realistic. With that said, the 35^th overall pick in the 2015 draft is showing all of his skills and will be fighting to become the star of this team in the near future. I hesitate only because Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask showed similar flashes of brilliance in short stints. The team struggling as it has presents the vacancy for someone with talent to step in and produce in a short term quickly.

This is what you expect but still seems a bit high (75% chance they keep the pace)
Travis Konecny (12% owned). He's on pace for almost 70 points which is more than I had slotted for him. I think he's more of a 60 points guy this year as he grows and matures but it's not entirely impossible to see him continuing to produce, he has yet to score his first NHL goal but he's seen some good looks.

Ivan Provorov (18% owned). He's young, he's making mistakes and turning the puck over but you can't deny his puck moving abilities and on ice IQ. He could finish with above 40 points especially if he manages a few shifts on the top PP unit a few times in place of Shayne Gostisbehere. Serving on the second unit with Mark Streit isn't all that bad though.

Devin Shore (1% owned). He's on the top PP unit with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin right now. He has 0 PPP and that is going to change real soon. If he is able to stay on that top PP unit for even half the year and he manages to crack the center of the second line, it's not absurd to see a 60 point season.

Patrick Laine (89% owned). I think he's more of a mid 70's player but much like Auston and William Nylander he is on a young team who is showing a very strong start. Patrick already has a hat trick in a mere 3 games played. He's with Mark Scheifele who doesn't get enough credit for his strong play and if he could revive Drew Stafford into what he was in Buffalo, this team could make a playoff run.

Strong likelihood that you are looking at the norm (90% chance they keep the pace)
Artturi Lehkonen  (2% owned). The 55^th overall pick in the 2013 draft is sitting in fat city on the second line with Tomas Plekanec and Alexander Radulov (both of whom are showing strong starts). He sits with 3 points in 6 games and there is no reason to believe he can't hit 40+ points. He is capable of doing everything and he reads the ice very well, given his skills and his spot with the team, the pairing should serve well this season.

Jimmy Vesey (18% owned). I'll start (as I usually do in these situations) with the preface, I like Vesey and I'm cheering for him to succeed, I like his play, his grit and his style. The Hobey Baker finalist at Harvard, Vesey was almost on a goal a game pace last year, he has the size, he sees lanes well for passes, and he is aggressive. He finds himself on a the top line with Derek Stepan and Rick Nash who still has the skills and talent to score when presented.

Mitchell Marner (29% owned). If there was a category for -€” "he should easily do this and then some", here it is. Mitchell has undeniable skill, he's quick with his hands, he doesn't shy away from firing a lot of shots on net, I think he reaches 60 points easily this year not to mention I think the goal scoring sees an increase in the near future.