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Weekly NHL Forecaster 10/10 - 10/16
I did this piece last year and it seemed to work fairly well. I spent the offseason tweaking it and improving it to better provide you with information.
Changes this year. Instead of ranking the goals for and goals against for the home and away teams I'm using advanced stats to do the work for me. This year I am using the average of CORSI For on the teams schedule home and away to tell me if this is going to be a shot filled week. The graph below is sorted from the most offensively oriented weeks to the least offensively oriented. To put it in a nutshell, if you want goals scored - look at the top teams.
Advantages to this: it takes out some of the noise with home vs. away and teams that are riding hot streaks and goes directly for games where a lot of shots are being fired on net.
Disadvantages: This will not account for a team that truly holds higher shooting averages. That is tough to know until the season is well underway though and I will do some PDO analysis to identify which teams those are as the season progresses.
|
Team |
Weekly CORSI |
Mon, Oct 10 |
Tue, Oct 11 |
|||||
|
SJ |
54.05 |
0 |
0 |
@ LA |
0 |
0 |
vs CLS |
0 |
|
LA |
53.5 |
0 |
0 |
vs SJ |
0 |
@ PHI |
0 |
0 |
|
COL |
52.6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ DAL |
0 |
|
DAL |
52.55 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ ANH |
0 |
vs COL |
0 |
|
ANH |
52.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs DAL |
0 |
vs PIT |
vs NYI |
|
DET |
51.7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs TB |
0 |
vs FLA |
0 |
|
TB |
51.7 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ DET |
0 |
@ NJ |
0 |
|
NSH |
51.6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ CHI |
vs CHI |
0 |
|
CAR |
51.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs WPG |
0 |
0 |
vs VAN |
|
MON |
51.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs BUF |
0 |
vs OTT |
0 |
|
WPG |
51.45 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ CAR |
0 |
vs MIN |
0 |
|
CHI |
51.35 |
0 |
0 |
@ STL |
0 |
vs NSH |
@ NSH |
0 |
|
OTT |
51.3 |
0 |
0 |
@ TOR |
0 |
0 |
@ MON |
0 |
|
NYI |
51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs NYR |
0 |
vs WAS |
@ ANH |
|
PIT |
51 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ WAS |
0 |
@ ANH |
0 |
|
ARI |
50.6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ PHI |
0 |
|
PHI |
50.6 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs LA |
vs ARI |
0 |
|
TOR |
50.4 |
0 |
0 |
vs OTT |
0 |
0 |
@ BOS |
0 |
|
WAS |
50.25 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs PIT |
0 |
@ NYI |
0 |
|
STL |
49.85 |
0 |
0 |
vs CHI |
@ MIN |
0 |
@ NYR |
0 |
|
MIN |
49.55 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs STL |
0 |
@ WPG |
0 |
|
BOS |
49.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs CLS |
0 |
vs TOR |
0 |
|
BUF |
49.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ MON |
0 |
0 |
vs EDM |
|
CLS |
49.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ BOS |
0 |
@ SJ |
0 |
|
CGY |
48.45 |
0 |
0 |
vs EDM |
0 |
@ EDM |
vs VAN |
0 |
|
EDM |
48.45 |
0 |
0 |
@ CGY |
0 |
vs CGY |
0 |
@ BUF |
|
NYR |
48.45 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ NYI |
0 |
vs STL |
0 |
|
VAN |
48.1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ CGY |
@ CAR |
|
FLA |
46.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
@ NJ |
0 |
@ DET |
0 |
|
NJ |
46.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
vs FLA |
0 |
vs TB |
0 |
Traditionally I will put in a few names that could have fortunate weeks but for week 1, I'd rather watch a few games and get a feel for how various players are doing.