Fantasy Premier League Promulgations Weeks 22 and 23

There are small snippets which, over a long enough time frame, become a trend. Here are a few of those to help you on your way forward. Below are 10 points across team and individual trends either over the last 5 games, 10 games or entire season that can help going forward.

1. Home trends vs. Away trends as a percentage of a team's total wins: 3 teams have over half their games won on the road and despite the lofty talk about Liverpool succeeding on the road they are NOT amongst them. Part of that has to do with Jurgen Klopp taking over mid season. Leicester City (58% of their wins are on the road); West Ham United (56%) and Crystal Palace (also 56%). Logically this means that the remaining 17 teams have AT LEAST 50% of their wins at home. Amongst those teams, here are the teams who have over three quarters of their wins coming from home: Swansea City (80%) and Southampton (75%). What this tells you is that these teams are more likely to win at home or on the road than vice versa.

   1. To recap: Leicester City, West Ham United and Crystal Palace are more likely to win on the road then at home. Swansea City and Southampton are MUCH more likely to win at home then on the road.

2. If you take this to the next level: how likely is a team to win at home or on the road PERIOD, here is what you get: on the road: ONLY Leicester City wins more than 50% of the time on the road at 58%. Meanwhile ONLY Manchester City wins at least 75% of the time at home.

   1. To recap: Leicester City on the road and Manchester City at home have the strongest likelihoods in the league to win.

3. Now to recap goals: As a percentage of their total goals: Away - Leicester City (59% of their total goals come during away games), Arsenal (57%), Manchester United (57%), Sunderland (56%) and Aston Villa (56%). Home - Newcastle United (79%), Manchester City (77%) and Southampton (71%).
   As a percentage of their total goals against (looking at fewest goals against so these teams play a stifling defense home or away): Away - Everton (38% of the goals against have come while playing away), Manchester City (43%) and West Bromwich Albion (43%). Home - Manchester United (20%), Sunderland (24%), Norwich City (26%) and Arsenal (29%)

4. What to take away from points 1-3: At home REALLY Trust: Manchester City and Southampton, partially trust Arsenal. On the road REALLY trust: Leicester City.

5. Furthermore a breakdown of games this season: 220 total games. 88 won by home team, 69 by away team and 63 ended in a tie. The most likely outcome of a game is 3 totals goals (49 games at 22% of the time) followed by 2 total goals (21% of the time). The home team scores 1 goals 76 times (35%) and 0 goals OR 2 goals 59 times each (27%) while the away teams scored 1 goal 76 times (35%) and 0 goals (73%)

6. Over the last ten games: Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur have the most points. Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have the most goals. Tottenham Hotspur, Stoke City and West Ham United have allowed the fewest. Leicester City and Stoke City have the most Clean Sheets and NONE of the teams I have mentioned are amongst the "big five".

7. Current Streaks: Southampton has both 2 wins and 2 clean sheets. Everton has 3 draws. Crystal Palace has three loses and Crystal Palace has gone 5 games since a win.

8. Bournemouth has 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games. So do Arsenal and Leicester City. The following teams have scored at least 2 goals in at least 3 of their last 5 games: Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham United, Chelsea (4 of their last 5), Southampton and Stoke City.

9. The following players are providing at least 3 ‘key passes' per game: Mesut Ozil (Arsenal), Dimitri Payet (West Ham), Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City) and Christian Eriksen (Tottenham Hotspur)

10. The following players are taking at least 3 shots on average per game: Phillippe Coutinho (Liverpool), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Sergio Aguero (Manchester City), Romelu Lukaku (Everton), Jamie Vardy (Leicester City), Odion Ighalo (Watford), Graziano Pelle (Southampton) and Yaya Toure (Manchester City)

    1. Points 9 and 10 just cement the validity to the fantasy prevalence that these players have provided so far, they are not flukes.

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