Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Pitcher: Marcus Stroman ($8,300) vs Baltimore Orioles
Marcus Stroman is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball, and he's priced very modestly as he makes his way back from ACL surgery. Stroman's recovery has been incredible; 6 months after tearing his ACL, Stroman has dominated both the Red Sox and Yankees in back to back starts. His pitching arsenal is excellent, and it's led by an amazing two seamer that is difficult to square up and generates a lot of weak contact. This, from last year against Miguel Cabrera:
And this from his most recent start, against ARod:
The two seamer ends up about middle/middle, but moves so much at 93 mph that ARod can do nothing with it.
He also possesses a wipeout slider, spike curve, and mid 90s four seam fastball. Stroman hasn't racked up a big strikeout rate yet this year, but it sat at about 21% last year and I fully expect the strikeouts to eventually come with his nasty pitch repertoire.
Stroman faces an Orioles offense that has been without Adam Jones, and his pitching opposition today is Miguel Gonzalez, who makes his first start back from shoulder pain. Gonzalez is a significantly below average pitcher this year and Stroman appears to be in line for strong run support from the Blue Jays offense. Stroman going 7 innings with 5 strikeouts, the win and good run prevention is very realistic, which would put him in line for anywhere between 14-16 points.
I wrote in depth about Stroman this past winter, which you can read here.
Stroman's modest price provides salary relief to spend more on hitting. Bryce Harper ($5,300), if he's in the lineup (which he was not yesterday after his altercation with Jonathan Papelbon in the Nationals dugout), faces Matt Wisler, who has allowed a .348/.446/.617 slash to LHB this year with a 7.45 FIP. Harper's incredible .343/.480/.703 slash vs RHP combined with Wisler's terrible slash against LHB amplifies his chances at production.
David Buchanan pitches for the Phillies at home against the Mets, which is likely to be a high scoring effort on the Mets side. Manager Terry Collins has said that he is going to attack acquiring home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs against the Dodgers (one reason he gave was to avoid having to face Kershaw and Greinke with the shadows in Dodger Stadium), so the Mets will field a competitive lineup despite having already clinched the division title. Buchanan has been ineffective against both lefty and righty hitters:
vs LHB: .349/.441/.605, 7.04 FIP
vs RHB: .361/.406/.552, 4.20 FIP
Travis d'Arnaud is priced affordably at $3,000 and has hit RHP to a 115 wRC+ and .196 ISO this year. Lucas Duda ($3,800) appears over his back problems after a productive weekend in Cincinnati and has hit RHP to a 124 wRC+ and .224 ISO. Curtis Granderson ($3,500), as the leadoff hitter, will likely get extra cracks at Buchanan and has hit RHP to a 148 wRC+ and .222 ISO. Michael Conforto appears to be a bargain at $2,600 as he has hit RHP to a 149 wRC+ and .255 ISO, but he risks being taken out late in games.
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