BABIP vs BA

In the past year of me writing at fake teams, I've learned to look deep when trying to decipher how to predict future events.   But in the beginning, I honestly believed BABIP was the first indicator of luck, and to be honest, not much has changed since then, I will always glance at BABIP early on to see if I should be arguing for a players luck to improve or discontinue.  I understand that hard hit rate is tremendously valuable, average homerun and fly ball distance is one of my favorite things to research, and line drive rate, although never stable in a single season, will tell you what kind of roll the guy is presently on.  The simplicity of it leaves you searching for more, but also an initial guideline.

So I decided to put all of this info into a spreadsheet, and see how the popularly cited difference between a player's BABIP, and his average looked when comparing all batting title contenders.  Below is the chart ordered from lowest to highest.

This left me with an interesting dilemma.  To this day in fantasy, I would rather be lucky than good, but there are big names splayed all over this chart, as there should be, and they've found success on all spectrums.

First, let's chop the list up.  Jose Reyes, and everyone above him at #47 are the "least" lucky players.  The top 6 players on this list have managed the unfathomable batting average over BABIP. Five of those six, have clubbed over 30 home runs, giving them a sizable chunk of hits that did not land "in play." The sixth member of that group is Daniel Murphy, perhaps the least lucky man alive, since opening day.  Seriously, who has played a full season, only struck out 35 or less times, and had a less productive year than Daniel Murphy.  These players as a whole are also a dawdling group.

Courtesy of Collectthemets.com

I would have never guessed that the lowest BABIP-BA players were a combination of the best power seasons, and least lucky players, but that's exactly what it's comprised of, from Nolan Arenado to Ben Zobrist, a low BABIP is not an indicator of much on its own.

The middle third is from #49 Alex Rodriguez to #96 Starling Marte.  There isn't much to say about this group as these are player performing as expected, and overall shouldn't be considered lucky or unlucky.  This goes chiefly for Bryce Harper because he's the best in all of the land.

Courtesy of Jack Cecil

The high BABIP hitters are the inverse of group 1.  Speed demons or players who have found ways to appease the fantasy gods, in ways that fantasy owners would kill to learn about.  Most surprisingly, this group's success isn't that much greater than the low BABIP players.  While everyone would love to roster Goldschmidt, a member of the high BABIPs, all owners would also love A.J. Pollock a player with one of the lowest BABIP -BA differentials.  If you own a slower player who is in the last third, you may want to look into his specific batted ball profile to assess if they are good keepers for next year, for example, next season I will be reinvested in Lucas Duda and Chris Davis.  Last note on the high third of the group, something with Kris Bryant has to change, because the likelihood of him repeating at .270 batting average while striking out 200+ times in a full season are slim to none, unless he starts hitting 50 homers a year to support everything else he puts in play.

Courtesy of CorkGaines

But looking at the players clumped together based on their BABIP-BA has given us surprisingly little.  Perhaps cutting the data up based on pieces of the equation will teach us more.

Here are the top 20 in home runs:

The top 20 home run hitters are a diverse group made up of 4 high BABIP players, 6 of the middle group, and 10 low BABIP players.  This upward trend makes a lot of sense as most power hitters are not also high batting average threats, making them true examples of the all of nothing game they go for, along with generally being lumbering players.

Sorting by BA gives you the following list:

These hitters are obviously some of the better contact hitters in baseball, or true burners. Miguel Cabrera, Buster Posey, Nelson Cruz, and Prince Fielder are the only hitters who I consider slow in that group.

Courtesy of Scott Johnson

In case you wanted to know, the following superstars were the only players to be duplicates in the past two lists:

• Bryce Harper
• Nelson Cruz
• Josh Donaldson
• Paul Goldschmidt
• Joey Votto

Not only are those 5 players stars this year, but also likely some of the most stable players to keep going forward as they have shown multiple good characteristics that are required to be a good fantasy player.  Health is the only thing slowing them down.

I'm going to take a closer look at a large number of these players this offseason, but something I'm realizing is that when it comes to BABIP, bigger isn't better.  There comes a point where certain players are high BABIP because the balls they are driving aren't making it over the wall, something I've ignored in the past, and low BABIP guys may simply not be leaving enough in the park, or on top of hitting many homers, they also hit many fly balls, the lowest BABIP outcome.

Lastly for my friend Kyle who asked "what does it mean to have a BABIP below your batting average? Nolan Arenado is doing that." it means, don't worry about it, Nolan is good, Harper is better.

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