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Yesterday I discussed whether or not the power outage, or the sinking trend in home runs, is now over. Today, I take a look at the third base position heading into 2016. With the additions of Kris Bryant, Maikel Franco and Jung-ho Kang, and the breakout seasons from Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, the third base position is going to be very deep for fantasy owners in their 2016 fantasy drafts. Heck, the third base position could include Dodgers shortstop prospect Corey Seager as well.
Imagine poring through position rankings and seeing former top-ranked third baseman Adrian Beltre and Evan Longoria in the lower part of top 10 third base rankings. The third base position owns three of the 30+ home runs hitters in the game at this point with a chance for possibly one more (Machado). Nine third baseman have hit 20 or more home runs, and 17 have hit 15 or more home runs thus far. Last season, not one third baseman hit 30+ home runs, and only six hit 20+ home runs.
There are 11 hitters who have hit 20 or more home runs and stolen 10+ bases this season, and three, Machado, Bryant and Frazier, are third baseman. I can see my top five third baseman being drafted in the first three rounds of 2016 drafts.
Here is a look at a very crude, read little research, ranking of my top 20 third baseman for 2016, with stats courtesy of FanGraphs:
Rank |
Name |
Team |
G |
PA |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
wRC+ |
1 |
Manny Machado |
143 |
631 |
28 |
87 |
72 |
17 |
0.289 |
0.361 |
0.495 |
134 |
|
2 |
Josh Donaldson |
141 |
632 |
38 |
109 |
119 |
6 |
0.305 |
0.371 |
0.586 |
159 |
|
3 |
Nolan Arenado |
140 |
589 |
38 |
85 |
110 |
1 |
0.283 |
0.317 |
0.571 |
116 |
|
4 |
Todd Frazier |
140 |
609 |
33 |
78 |
84 |
12 |
0.259 |
0.311 |
0.513 |
118 |
|
5 |
Kris Bryant |
132 |
568 |
24 |
78 |
92 |
12 |
0.271 |
0.366 |
0.489 |
134 |
|
6 |
Anthony Rendon |
63 |
278 |
5 |
35 |
21 |
1 |
0.287 |
0.367 |
0.398 |
113 |
|
7 |
Kyle Seager |
144 |
611 |
24 |
77 |
66 |
6 |
0.273 |
0.331 |
0.46 |
119 |
|
8 |
Maikel Franco |
77 |
326 |
13 |
43 |
48 |
1 |
0.277 |
0.34 |
0.49 |
125 |
|
9 |
Evan Longoria |
141 |
590 |
19 |
63 |
68 |
3 |
0.27 |
0.332 |
0.435 |
112 |
|
10 |
Adrian Beltre |
124 |
532 |
15 |
69 |
55 |
1 |
0.264 |
0.306 |
0.417 |
89 |
|
11 |
Jung-ho Kang |
122 |
457 |
15 |
60 |
58 |
5 |
0.29 |
0.359 |
0.467 |
132 |
|
12 |
Matt Carpenter |
137 |
593 |
21 |
84 |
73 |
3 |
0.26 |
0.359 |
0.461 |
126 |
|
13 |
Mike Moustakas |
129 |
538 |
18 |
62 |
71 |
1 |
0.281 |
0.345 |
0.454 |
120 |
|
14 |
David Wright |
24 |
113 |
3 |
17 |
9 |
2 |
0.294 |
0.363 |
0.412 |
121 |
|
15 |
Justin Turner |
Dodgers |
115 |
400 |
15 |
49 |
54 |
5 |
0.285 |
0.36 |
0.486 |
135 |
16 |
Trevor Plouffe |
135 |
561 |
20 |
68 |
79 |
2 |
0.25 |
0.313 |
0.445 |
106 |
|
17 |
Pablo Sandoval |
123 |
492 |
10 |
42 |
46 |
0 |
0.247 |
0.293 |
0.371 |
77 |
|
18 |
Yasmany Tomas |
109 |
400 |
8 |
39 |
45 |
5 |
0.282 |
0.315 |
0.405 |
93 |
|
19 |
Nick Castellanos |
138 |
537 |
15 |
39 |
68 |
0 |
0.25 |
0.302 |
0.419 |
94 |
|
20 |
Brett Lawrie |
133 |
531 |
16 |
57 |
57 |
5 |
0.269 |
0.307 |
0.43 |
104 |
Note: I did not rank Twins third baseman/DH Miguel Sano here, as it appears he will not be eligible at third base in 2016 in leagues which require 20 games at a position to be eligible. He needs one more game at third base to be eligible in Yahoo leagues which require 10 games. Had I ranked him, I would lot him at the #6 spot in my rankings.
I will probably go back and forth between Arenado, Machado and Donaldson as my # 1 fantasy third baseman in the offseason, so don't be surprised to see me change the rankings a bit.
Frazier is my # 4 third baseman, but I could easily see Bryant and/or Rendon move up ahead of him. I like Phillies third baseman Maikel Franco as he could be a 25 home run, 85 RBI, .280 BA with a full season of at bats.
Then we get to Beltre and Longoria at #9 and #10. Seems odd, right? They are perennial top 3-5 fantasy third baseman every season, but their production has dropped this season. I have to admit I am a little surprised at the drop in power from Longoria this season, as he is still relatively young, but he could have a few more 25-30 home runs seasons in his bat, and come relatively cheaply next season.
I like Pirates infielder Jung-ho Kang, as I don't think we have seen the best from him yet at the plate. I can see a 20-25 home run, 80 RBI season from him in 2016, but he will have to get the ball in the air more than 28% of his plate appearances to do so.
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