Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
The top play based on the numbers is Jacob deGrom ($11,100) at home against a Miami offense that ranks last in wRC+ vs RHP at 81. deGrom has had significantly better results at home vs on the road throughout his career (1.63 home ERA vs 3.40 road ERA), and the pitcher friendly environment probably has something to do with this. Home pitchers also come straight from the bullpen without having to delay 20 or so minutes waiting on the visitor's bench, something that may disrupt their routine on the road. Jared Diamond touched on this in the Journal. deGrom takes a 2.40 ERA, 2.88 FIP and 26.6% K% into his start tomorrow, and opposes Tom Koehler, a below average RHP.
Stephen Strasburg ($10,100) is mind numbingly inconsistent, but he looked ridiculous in his last start, which I wrote about here. In particular, Strasburg's curve was unhittable, and without trying to use excessive hyperbole, it might have been the greatest curve I have ever seen. Some visuals:
Strasburg takes on a Phillies offense that is second worst vs RHP by wRC+ at 85, behind only the aforementioned Miami Marlins. Strasburg is a risk, though; he's been plagued by back problems all year, and posses the potential to be a grenade start, both in terms of exiting early or ineffectiveness.
A mid tier option that may posses some upside is J.A. Happ ($7,700) vs the Cubs. Happ has been terrific since joining the National League and the Pirates, posting a 1.79 ERA, 2.23 FIP and 26.4% K%. The Cubs have the highest K% vs LHP at 26% and possess a bottom third wRC+ at 87. Happ's handedness also largely neutralizes stud rookie Kyle Schwarber, who has struggled vs LHP (46 wRC+). Happ provides strong salary relief to aid with hitting. The main issue with Happ is that Jon Lester opposes him, making run support difficult.
The Nationals as a team have been hideously underwhelming all year, but they face RHP David Buchanan in a park upgrade in Citizens Bank Ballpark. Buchanan has a 9.11 ERA, 5.69 FIP and does not miss bats. Bryce Harper ($5,300) and his 211 wRC+/.355 ISO vs RHP is an even more elite play than usual today.
Two modestly priced, productive bats in good situations that stick out:
Matt Carpenter ($3,300) is priced affordably and faces a below average RHP in a park upgrade in Milwaukee. Carpenter has hit RHP to a 139 wRC+ and .219 ISO.
Michael Conforto ($3,000) has hit RHP to a 163 wRC+ and .274 ISO and faces a below average RHP.
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