I have a fantasy baseball keeper league trade dilemma.
It happens any year when I, or any other keeper league owner, am in the money and looking to go for it all. I currently reside in third place in the UBA NL only keeper league, nine points out of second and 12.5 points out of first. In addition, I am only two points ahead of the fourth place team. Here are the current standings:
Mutts - 85 pts
Wooden Badgers - 82 pts
Rays - 73 points
Silver Tongues - 71 pts
In any other season, 73 points would probably win the league, but this season is not any season…..and I am not sure why. The league is very top heavy this season, and I can gain points in wins and saves, which could get me to second place……but who remembers the second place winner?
Anyway, here are the two trade offers I am pondering. I can gain points in wins and saves, but somehow have to maintain status quo in the hitting categories. It won't be easy.
I hope the two owners don't get upset about me posting their offers on this site, but I wouldn't be doing so if I wasn't seriously pondering them.
I give up: $15 L1 Nolan Arenado, 2nd round pick in farm draft, two middle relievers
I get: $5 S1 Carlos Martinez, $7 S1 Tyson Ross, $10 S2 Yangervis Solarte (or some other filler)
I give up: $5 S2 Kris Bryant, $5 S2 J.P. Crawford, $10 S2 Daniel Descalso, $10 0 Juan Lagares, $10 S2 Rafael Betancourt, $4 S2 Aaron Barrett
I get: $9 S2 John Lackey, #13 S2 Lance Lynn, $22 S2 Ryan Howard, $21 S2 Jimmy Rollins, $15 0 Dominic Brown, $49 S2 Giancarlo Stanton
I wouldn't make either deal individually, and would make either both of the deals or neither deal.
If I sit tight and hope to stay in third place, or at the worst fourth place, I go into 2016 with the following roster:
$5 S1 Maikel Franco
$5 S1 Kris Bryant
$15 0 Nolan Arenado
$12 S1 Norichika Aoki
$24 S1 Kenley Jansen
$15 L2 Ken Giles
$6 S1 Arodys Vizcaino
$15 L2 Jake Arrieta
$1 0 Brett Anderson (assuming he stay in the NL)
And possibly $26 0 Jonathan Lucroy
Two minor league picks
Go for it
If I go for it, and trade some cheap keepers for the four starters listed above, I need the following to happen:
Home runs: current in 2nd, two teams within 6 home runs from me. I need to maintain my second place standing, and possibly move up to first, but I am 13 home runs behind the leader
Wins: I am six wins from five more points in the in category, but would gain six points on the Mutts as he is one of the teams I hope to pass.
Saves: I am 14 saves from four more points in saves, and 19 saves from gaining five points in the save category. Realistically, I think I can gain at least four points in the saves category, but would need all the stars to align to gain more.
I am leaning toward not making either deal, but the thought of going for it is very compelling to me. That said, giving up those keepers for second place would be a disappointment.
What should I do?