We're five short days away from the pre-season opener, the Hall of Fame game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings. Pre-season action can drastically affect ADP, so it is time to collect your thoughts and start preparing for your re-draft leagues. ADP values provided by fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins - ADP 5.07
Jarvis Landry pulled in 84 receptions on 112 targets for 758 yards and 5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign in Miami. The early success from Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., and many others have cast a bit of a shadow on a season that, before last year, would have been considered a smashing success.
Landry has amazing hands, runs sharp routes, and has a knack for getting separation quickly. The Dolphins offense runs a lot of plays, and runs those quick hitting, misdirection plays a-la the Philadelphia Eagles. Landry is the perfect possession receiver for this type of offense. Landry also has the most experience with quarterback Ryan Tannehill after the slew of free agency moves by the Dolphins this year.
I'll take a quarterback's favorite target in an up-tempo offense expected to run a lot of plays and put up a bunch of yards, especially in PPR.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars - ADP 5.08
As impressive as the last two rookie wide receiver classes have been, the last two rookie running back classes have been equally underwhelming. This year, we'll see that trend reversed with all the young running back talent coming into the league from the 2015 draft.
All the bust potential for Yeldon is baked in to his mid-fifth round ADP. Yeldon is already the unquestioned lead back for the Jags. If Jacksonville has any success this year, it will come from leaning on the run game and playing stout defense. Yeldon is an all-around back that will lose some passing game touches to Denard Robinson, but T.J. has shown the ability to block and catch balls out of the backfield at Alabama. Taking Yeldon as your third back, or taking a shot on him as your RB2 with Gronk or a strong receiver corps, will be a recipe for success this year.
Eli Manning, New York Giants - ADP 8.12
Manning finished as QB8 last year, and is currently being drafted as the QB12. This year, I expect the Giants to take another leap forward on offense under offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. The Giants secondary, and perhaps their entire defense, will be suspect, again, in 2015. Eli may be forced to win some shootouts.
Eli is currently being drafted at his absolute floor. With Odell Beckham coming on strong last year, Victor Cruz set to return, and Ruben Randle providing serviceable play, Eli will pay off big time in 2015.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins - ADP 3.09
The Dolphins have done everything they can to ensure that Lamar Miller will not be a lead, workhorse back. Last year, they brought in Knowhon Moreno, and did everything they could to limit Miller's touches. This year, the Dolphins drafted Jay Ajayi, an explosive dude with good size in the fifth round.
If the Dolphins do lean on one guy this year, it will not be Lamar Miller. At best, he'll split time with Ajayi and end up disappointing owners that spend hefty draft capitol to acquire him.
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers - ADP 5.02
Jonathan ‘if he can stay healthy' Stewart is unquestionably a talented running back. The two big problems with Stewart are his history of injuries and Carolina's offensive philosophy in the red zone. As well, the Panthers are not an especially prolific offense. Touchdown opportunities are not plentiful down in Carolina. When the Panthers do get near the goal-line, Cam Newton, Mike Tolbert, and maybe Kelvin Benjamin will all get looks before JStew.
Early in the fifth round is too early for a back that has been plagued by injuries his entire career, and is maybe the fourth red-zone option. Stewart could stay healthy all year as injuries can be difficult to predict. But, if he does, he is still being drafted near the peak of his upside. Don't take your chances with Stewart this year.
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers - ADP 5.01
Bryant burst on the scene last year with some insane efficiency numbers on limited snaps. Bryant is undeniably talented, and he has the measurables to be great opposite Antonio Brown. What scares me with Bryant is that he will either regress to mere mortal per snap numbers, or he will be one of the best wide receivers to ever play the game. I am betting on the former.
Bryant is a good football player, and he is playing in what I expect will be a high-flying offense. However, this just smells too much like the 2015 version of Cordarrell Paterson for me to spend a fourth or fifth round pick on him.
On Twitter? Me too, @NFLClark