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Tight End Values: Pros vs. Joes

Heath compares expert rankings at FantasyPros to current ADPs at Fantasy Football Calculator. A very simple exercise!

Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Disclaimer: Thousands of mock drafts are completed on Fantasy Football Calculator each day, and while some of those "mockers" are undoubtedly experts, I am considering that sample as more indicative of how the common fantasy footballer will draft. I am then pitting those numbers against expert rankings from FantasyPros and discerning what the major discrepancies are.

Here is the data I gleaned from Fantasy Football Calculator. This data was obtained from 1158 mock drafts between July 30, 2015 and August 2, 2015.

1 Rob Gronkowski

Jimmy Graham

3 Travis Kelce

Greg Olsen

5 Martellus Bennett
6 Julius Thomas
7 Zach Ertz
8 Owen Daniels
9 Jordan Cameron
10 Jason Witten
11 Josh Hill
12 Delanie Walker
13 Dwayne Allen
14 Kyle Rudolph
15 Vernon Davis
16 Antonio Gates
17 Ladarius Green
18 Coby Fleener
19 Maxx Williams
20 Larry Donnell
21 Tyler Eifert
22 Austin Seferian-Jenkins

And here is the data from the consensus rankings of 98 different experts on FantasyPros, as of August 2, 2015:

1 Rob Gronkowski
2 Jimmy Graham
3 Travis Kelce
4 Greg Olsen
5 Martellus Bennett
6 Zach Ertz
7 Jordan Cameron
8 Julius Thomas
9 Jason Witten
10 Delanie Walker
11 Antonio Gates
12 Dwayne Allen
13 Josh Hill
14 Owen Daniels
15 Kyle Rudolph
16 Tyler Eifert
17 Larry Donnell
18 Austin Seferian-Jenkins
19 Coby Fleener
20 Heath Miller
21 Vernon Davis
22 Jordan Reed

***Ladarius Green was 24th and Maxx Williams was 26th***

So, what conclusions can we draw?

Owen Daniels is Overrated?

Owen Daniels, who the common people are drafting as the TE8, is a backup according to the experts, who rank him as the TE14. So the sharps don't believe much upside is there (at least for Daniels) in that Peyton Manning offense.

Vernon Davis Should Be Dead to You

Vernon Davis is the 15th tight end according to mock draft data, but the pros have bumped him all the way down to TE21. That is a notable difference.

Tyler Eifert Needs More Lovin'

The plebeians are showing no love to Tyler Eifert as the TE21, but the sharps have him rated as the 16th-best tight end. The main threat to Eifert is no longer Jermaine Gresham. The main threat is now the injury imp. But Eifert enters the season as the unquestioned #1 tight end in this offense, and the experts consider him to be a solid backup. He has also inched up the boards, as he was the TE19 according to the sharps just a few weeks ago.

Don't Forget About Heath Miller

The sharps aren't, as he is ranked as a low-end backup at TE20. He doesn't have any upside, but if you are in a large league or a format with huge rosters, don't forget about him as a bye-week fill-in.

Don't Forget About Jordan Reed, Either

He of many injuries and concussions is ranked as the TE22 by the experts. I don't know about this one, sharps. If Reed enters preseason still banged up, I will personally be checking in on how Niles Paul is doing.

Forget About Josh Hill (as a starter, at least)

The Pros have knocked Josh Hill down a couple of spots to TE13, and with more talk of a committee-approach in New Orleans that number will continue to drop. Stop drafting him like a starter, already. I am as guilty as any, but that time is clearly over.

Ladarius Green is Overrated

Whew weeeee this one hurts to type, sharps! The pros have him slotted as the TE24. That sounds terribly low, doesn't it? If it's any consolation, I know Green was the TE28 according to the experts just two short weeks ago. So they are coming around on him. If I miss out on Gronk I will happily begin my season with four weeks of Ladarius and go from there.

Maxx Williams is no Heath Miller

At least, not yet, according to the experts. Let Williams be someone else's headache.

And that's all she wrote for this installment of Pros vs. Joes!