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I've always been very interested in batted ball profiles over a players actual rates of production when trying to guess the future. This is mainly due to me trusting the way a player hits the ball more, than a way a player hits a ball versus the opposing defense. With that said, both batted ball and triple slash rates are unstable in a single season. In fact most of the stats I am about to use aren't stable until over 1000 balls in play have been hit. But since the big K pitchers are already owned, the players who can supply great rates while posting lesser K rates might be your only choice. Below you'll see a few of my favorite stats, and the top 30 starters in each stat.
|
Name |
LD% |
|
Brett Anderson |
14.20% |
|
Sonny Gray |
14.60% |
|
Garrett Richards |
16.30% |
|
Wei-Yin Chen |
17.20% |
|
Shelby Miller |
17.40% |
|
Tom Koehler |
17.60% |
|
Marco Estrada |
17.70% |
|
Matt Harvey |
17.70% |
|
Hector Santiago |
18.00% |
|
Rubby de la Rosa |
18.10% |
|
Felix Hernandez |
18.30% |
|
Danny Salazar |
18.30% |
|
Wade Miley |
18.90% |
|
Max Scherzer |
18.90% |
|
Carlos Carrasco |
19.00% |
|
Carlos Martinez |
19.10% |
|
Edinson Volquez |
19.10% |
|
Colby Lewis |
19.20% |
|
Chris Tillman |
19.30% |
|
Collin McHugh |
19.40% |
|
Jon Niese |
19.60% |
|
John Lackey |
19.60% |
|
Jimmy Nelson |
19.80% |
|
Dan Haren |
19.90% |
|
Mark Buehrle |
19.90% |
|
Trevor Bauer |
20.00% |
|
Jacob deGrom |
20.10% |
|
John Danks |
20.10% |
|
Jeremy Hellickson |
20.10% |
|
Andrew Cashner |
20.20% |
Now I'll be damned, but that list looks like a pretty good group of arms. One who watches baseball knows line drives become hits frequently. Some of my favorite big arms are placed here, and I've also noticed that Felix Hernandez, despite having a down year, is still limiting line drives with the best of them.
|
Name |
GB% |
|
Brett Anderson |
66.40% |
|
Dallas Keuchel |
63.10% |
|
Tyson Ross |
62.50% |
|
Felix Hernandez |
56.10% |
|
Gio Gonzalez |
55.20% |
|
Carlos Martinez |
55.00% |
|
Jon Niese |
54.80% |
|
Jake Arrieta |
54.20% |
|
Sonny Gray |
54.00% |
|
Garrett Richards |
54.00% |
|
Chris Heston |
53.90% |
|
A.J. Burnett |
53.20% |
|
Francisco Liriano |
53.00% |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
52.80% |
|
Kyle Gibson |
52.60% |
|
Mike Pelfrey |
52.50% |
|
Nathan Eovaldi |
51.60% |
|
Mike Leake |
51.50% |
|
Kyle Hendricks |
50.50% |
|
Carlos Carrasco |
50.50% |
|
Rubby de la Rosa |
50.20% |
|
Gerrit Cole |
50.00% |
|
Shelby Miller |
50.00% |
|
Yovani Gallardo |
49.90% |
|
Jeff Locke |
49.90% |
|
Wade Miley |
49.70% |
|
Jimmy Nelson |
49.70% |
|
Jon Lester |
49.00% |
|
Andrew Cashner |
48.40% |
|
Edinson Volquez |
48.10% |
Now things are starting to get interesting. Please take notice of the following repeat offenders. Brett Anderson, when the guy isn't in a hospital room, he's still great. Felix Hernandez (still a stud), Carlos Martinez, Jon Niese (?), Sonny Gray, Garret Richards, Carlos Carrasco (my preseason darling), Rubby de la Rosa, Shelby Miller, Wade Miley, Jimmy Nelson, Andrew Cashner, and Edison Volquez. I'm probably stating the obvious, but if you're limiting line drives, and leading the MLB in ground ball rate, you're definitely doing your best to tame your babip.
|
Name |
FB% |
IFFB% |
|
Jesse Chavez |
35.60% |
15.50% |
|
Chris Tillman |
37.20% |
14.90% |
|
R.A. Dickey |
37.20% |
14.70% |
|
Dallas Keuchel |
16.50% |
14.60% |
|
Madison Bumgarner |
35.50% |
14.30% |
|
Mike Fiers |
40.20% |
14.20% |
|
Trevor Bauer |
41.80% |
13.90% |
|
Matt Garza |
33.10% |
13.90% |
|
Drew Hutchison |
35.80% |
13.80% |
|
Cole Hamels |
30.90% |
13.70% |
|
Max Scherzer |
46.00% |
13.70% |
|
J.A. Happ |
33.60% |
13.60% |
|
Ubaldo Jimenez |
28.10% |
13.50% |
|
Anibal Sanchez |
39.10% |
12.70% |
|
Dan Haren |
48.30% |
12.60% |
|
Wei-Yin Chen |
42.00% |
11.90% |
|
Jordan Zimmermann |
37.20% |
11.90% |
|
Alfredo Simon |
34.20% |
11.80% |
|
Chris Heston |
24.10% |
11.80% |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
26.00% |
11.80% |
|
John Lackey |
35.60% |
11.70% |
|
David Price |
38.60% |
11.60% |
|
Aaron Harang |
43.20% |
11.40% |
|
Julio Teheran |
35.00% |
11.30% |
|
Taijuan Walker |
39.50% |
11.20% |
|
Jimmy Nelson |
30.60% |
11.00% |
|
Lance Lynn |
37.10% |
11.00% |
|
Matt Harvey |
37.20% |
11.00% |
|
Nick Martinez |
33.70% |
10.90% |
|
Phil Hughes |
40.70% |
10.80% |
Now this list is ordered by infield fly balls, which are the next best thing to strikeouts. Infield fly ball pitchers are typically a different breed of arms from ground ballers, which leads me to the only player that has managed to be on all three lists... Jimmy Nelson. This forced me to look at his Fangraphs page, and I found nothing surprising, his babip is a little low, his strand rate is a little high, and yet his 1.22 WHIP and 3.60 ERA are incredibly normal. With this I learn that a) this is not an exact science and b) if Jimmy Nelson could limit his walks, he'd be a LOT better.
But after looking at those names, I wanted to see how soft and hard hit rates looked to try and spot any other overlap.
|
Name |
Hard% |
|
Dallas Keuchel |
20.10% |
|
Francisco Liriano |
21.50% |
|
Sonny Gray |
22.70% |
|
Chris Sale |
22.90% |
|
Jake Arrieta |
23.20% |
|
R.A. Dickey |
23.30% |
|
Wade Miley |
23.60% |
|
Garrett Richards |
23.70% |
|
Tyson Ross |
23.80% |
|
Scott Kazmir |
23.90% |
|
Mike Pelfrey |
24.00% |
|
Chris Heston |
24.10% |
|
Yovani Gallardo |
24.70% |
|
Chris Tillman |
24.70% |
|
Kyle Hendricks |
25.00% |
|
Collin McHugh |
25.00% |
|
Zack Greinke |
25.10% |
|
Felix Hernandez |
25.90% |
|
Jeff Samardzija |
26.00% |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
26.00% |
|
Wei-Yin Chen |
26.20% |
|
Brett Anderson |
26.20% |
|
Corey Kluber |
26.30% |
|
Carlos Martinez |
26.30% |
|
Jacob deGrom |
26.40% |
|
Jeff Locke |
26.50% |
|
Jose Quintana |
26.50% |
|
Shelby Miller |
26.50% |
|
John Danks |
26.60% |
|
Jake Odorizzi |
26.70% |
So here is yet another long list of studs. If a pitcher is limiting hard hit balls with the best of them, they're primed for success. But...
|
Name |
Soft% |
|
Francisco Liriano |
27.70% |
|
Brett Anderson |
24.20% |
|
Dallas Keuchel |
23.70% |
|
Chris Sale |
23.20% |
|
Drew Hutchison |
23.20% |
|
Cole Hamels |
22.90% |
|
Garrett Richards |
22.80% |
|
Zack Greinke |
22.40% |
|
Jeff Locke |
22.30% |
|
Carlos Martinez |
22.00% |
|
Jake Arrieta |
21.90% |
|
Wei-Yin Chen |
21.80% |
|
R.A. Dickey |
21.80% |
|
Jon Lester |
21.40% |
|
Nathan Eovaldi |
21.40% |
|
Marco Estrada |
21.30% |
|
Shelby Miller |
21.10% |
|
Collin McHugh |
21.00% |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
20.90% |
|
Trevor Bauer |
20.80% |
|
Max Scherzer |
20.70% |
|
Johnny Cueto |
20.40% |
|
Michael Wacha |
20.40% |
|
Chris Archer |
20.30% |
|
Nate Karns |
20.00% |
|
Kyle Hendricks |
19.90% |
|
John Danks |
19.70% |
|
Tyson Ross |
19.60% |
|
Mike Fiers |
19.60% |
|
Chris Tillman |
19.50% |
If you are also a league leader in soft hit rate you're likely to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Those names are Dallas Keuchel, Francisco Liriano, Chris Sale, Jarke Arrieta, R.A. Dickey, Garrett Richards, Tyson Ross, Chrisl Tillman, Kyle Hendricks, Collin McHugh, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Wei-Yin Chen, Brett Anderson, Carlos Martinez, Jeff Locke, Shelby Miller, and John Danks. John Danks is an anomaly, but the rest of this list. Lastly, as the most recent man to enter the no hit club, I felt obligated to mention that Mike Fiers gives up the largest percentage of balls hit hard in the MLB according to Fangraphs, where all of these stats were pulled from. So what do you think readers? I frequently find myself grasping for anything I can find when it comes to late season pitching acquisitions, lets hear what you look into when finding your playoff push savior.