:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47003054/usa-today-8736320.0.jpg)
Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Pitcher
David Price vs Angels, $11,700
On a day where multiple aces and high level performers pitch, David Price is the guy I am targeting. Price, with a 2.41 ERA and 2.92 FIP, faces an Angels offense that has a bottom third wRC+ vs LHP at 91. Hector Santiago, a LHP, pitches for the Angels, which should be a good development for getting Price run support. The Blue Jays offense is #1 vs LHP with a 124 wRC+ and features a very strong right handed heavy lineup. Santiago does have a 2.86 ERA on the year, but I'm not convinced that's real and I think it's unlikely to continue based on his peripheral statistics. The downside to the matchup is that the Angels have not been strikeout prone vs LHP this year (their 18.6% K% vs LHP is 4th lowest). Regardless, Price appears to be a good bet to be in position to prevent runs at a high level and get the win.
Hitting
Reds left handed batters vs Rubby de la Rosa
de la Rosa has faced 557 left handed batters in the last two seasons and is allowing a .303/.365/.523 slash with a 5.18 FIP. The matchup takes place in Great American Ballpark, a strong park for lefty hitters. Jay Bruce ($2,900) in particular stands out with his under $3,000 salary; his wRC+ vs RHP is only 109 in about 350 PA vs RHP this year, but his .234 ISO is very strong and the park+pitching matchup makes me like his power potential today. Bruce will be a power threat in a bandbox against a pitcher that is prone to getting wacked.
Joey Votto ($4,200) is an elite play today for similar reasons. He's hit RHP to a 165 wRC+ and .241 ISO with an amazing .431 on base percentage, and de la Rosa's ineffectiveness vs left handed batters will make that play up.
OF- Adam Jones ($3,900) vs Tommy Milone
In 267 PA since the start of 2014, Jones has hit LHP to an elite 176 wRC+ and .266 ISO. He faces Tommy Milone, who has allowed a .278/.338/.469 slash to RHB in 683 PA over the last two seasons with a 4.96 FIP. The matchup takes place in Camden Yards, a park downgrade for Milone, who has pitched many of his games in the spacious Target Field and Oakland Coliseum. This Mets fan saw that first hand on Tuesday and Wednesday night, where multiple home runs hit by both teams looked like they would be fly outs in most other parks.
1B- Adrian Gonzalez ($3,300) vs Mike Fiers
If a fantasy owner needs a less expensive option than Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez is priced on the lower end for a highly productive player. Gonzalez has RHP to a 148 wRC+ and .246 ISO in just under 400 PA this year. He also gets a park upgrade in Houston. The one negative is that Fiers isn't a tomato can; he's about an average pitcher vs LHB, but Gonzalez's price and production combo is difficult for me to ignore if in need of salary relief. 16 1B are priced higher than Gonzalez today.
$2,500 and under
2B: Kolten Wong ($2,400) vs Andrew Cashner
This could be small-ish sample size noise or there could be something significant to it: Cashner has faced 284 LHB this year and is allowing a terrible .291/.370/.540 slash with a 5.59 FIP. From what I understand, platoon splits for pitchers stabilize around 500 PA, so Cashner is about halfway there with his 2015 sample. Cashner's walk rate has risen to over 10% vs LHB this year, up from 7.5% last year, and his strikeout rate has fallen from 19% to 17%. PetCo park is also playing much more hitter friendly this year and one theory is that construction may have changed the wind patterns, so fly balls are traveling better. As for Kolten Wong himself, he has hit RHP to an above average 117 wRC+ and .161 ISO this year and provides salary relief to fit more expensive players in elsewhere. He is also an above average base stealing threat, with 20 SB last year and 14 so far this year.
You can follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521