Keeper League Trade Dilemma: Going All In

Last Saturday, I posted this piece about the dilemma I faced in the UBA NL only keeper league. I was faced with possibility of dealing one or both of $5 Kris Bryant and a $15 Nolan Arenado in an effort to play for the title this season. At the time I wrote that article, I was leaning toward sitting tight and playing for next season.

Keeper League Trade Dilemma: Trading Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado

But, as the saying goes, Flags Fly Forever, and my inner competitive self decided that going for it was the better decision. Not only did I trade Bryant and Arenado, but I traded a $5 Maikel Franco. Had I decided to sit tight, I would have three very valuable keepers for next season. That and the fact that I felt I had a decent chance of finishing in third place, or at the very least fourth place. What could be better than that, right?

Winning it all, it appears.

Here are the three trades that I made this week, one of which was completed last night, about 20 minutes before the 10pm ET trade deadline. Recall from the article linked above that I had a very serious need for starting pitching, and I feel I addressed that in two of my trades:

Trade # 1

In this deal, I traded away a $5 S2 Kris Bryant, a $5 S2 J.J. Hoover and a $10 S2 Rafael Betancourt, for a $13 S2 Lance Lynn, a $9 S2 John Lackey and a $22 S2 Ryan Howard. Lynn and Lackey address my need for starting pitching and Howard basically replaces Bryant in my lineup. Before you rant about Howard, remember that this is an NL only league, and he currently ranks in the top 16 in the NL in home runs and top 15 in RBI.

That said, I would not have made this trade without making trade #2 below.

Trade #2

In this deal, I added two more starting pitchers, a stolen base hitter and a prospect who had just been called up. I added a $5 S1 Carlos Martinez, a $7 S1 Tyson Ross, a $9 L1 Michael Bourn and a $5 S2 Jose Peraza. In return I gave up some cheap relievers in Barrett and Petit, a $15 Arenado, a $5 S2 J.P. Crawford and my 2nd round pick in the 2016 farm draft.

Martinez is one of the best young starters in the game, pitching on the best team in baseball, and did I tell you I needed wins? Ross has pitched better than his record indicates this season, as he has pitched to a 2.91 FIP, about 0.50 better than his ERA, and he ranks 9th in the NL in fWAR.

I receive a cheap speed asset in Peraza who could be in the Dodgers starting lineup in some capacity in 2016. That said, he didn't stay on my roster too long.

Trade #3

In this deal, I address some holes in my lineup by adding A $8 S2 Juan Uribe, a $28 S2 Hunter Pence, a $22 L1 Yoenis Cespedes and a $19 Jung-ho Kang, but had to give up Peraza, a $5 S2 Maikel Franco, a $26 Jonathan Lucroy, a $22 Starlin Castro, and two throw-ins: $10 S2 Elian Herrera and a $10 S2 Andres Blanco.

As you can see I needed to add some hitting after giving up Bryant, Arenado and Franco.

After all of these trades, here is a look at my more balanced roster:

I also have a $27 S2 Matt Holliday on the disabled list, but there is no telling if he will be back before the end of the season.

I have to say that I was very close to not making the third trade, but figured I had already gone this far in an effort to win the title, I might as well offer Franco up in an effort to address holes in my lineup.

I currently sit in third place with 74 points, 7 points out of second and 12 points out of first. To win it all, I need the following to happen:

Home runs: I need to out-homer the first place team by 11 home runs the rest of the way to gain a point in home runs. That won't be easy.

Stolen bases: I need to hold off two teams from over-taking me in the stolen base category. I sit in fourth place in the category with 82 stolen bases, with one team at 80 SBs and another at 77 SBs.

Batting Average: I currently sit in 7th place with a .2606 BA. I think I have a chance to gain two points in BA, with the sixth place team at .2611 and the fifth place team at .2637.

Wins: I am tied for fourth with 53 wins, but am one win away from tying for second place at 54. I think with my roster of starters, I can gain three more points in wins. but it won't be easy.

Saves: I have three closers and currently sit in sixth place with 48 saves. I realistically have a chance to gain three more points in saves, as the teams ahead of me have 61, 55 and 53 saves.

ERA: I sit in second place with a 3.213 ERA and the leader, the first place team in the overall standing, has a 3.026 ERA. Over-taking him won't be easy, but is certainly possible.

Should things go my way in each of these categories, I gain 10 points to bring me to 84 points. That said, the currently first place team has 86 points, but I would gain points on him in wins and ERA, so he would drop to 84 as well. The first place team can also lose a point in home runs, 1-2 points in RBI, a point in saves, 1-2 points in wins and a point in ERA. So, he could lose anywhere from 1- 7 points.

Winning the league won't be easy, but there is a chance I can win if things break my way. I feel my roster is much more balanced after these trades and sets me up for a run over the next month and a half.

Did I make the right decision to go all in?

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