clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Keeper League Trade Dilemma: Going All In

New, 8 comments

Ray explains his reason for trading his cheapest assets for a run at the title in his NL only keeper league.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Last Saturday, I posted this piece about the dilemma I faced in the UBA NL only keeper league. I was faced with possibility of dealing one or both of $5 Kris Bryant and a $15 Nolan Arenado in an effort to play for the title this season. At the time I wrote that article, I was leaning toward sitting tight and playing for next season.

Keeper League Trade Dilemma: Trading Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado

But, as the saying goes, Flags Fly Forever, and my inner competitive self decided that going for it was the better decision. Not only did I trade Bryant and Arenado, but I traded a $5 Maikel Franco. Had I decided to sit tight, I would have three very valuable keepers for next season. That and the fact that I felt I had a decent chance of finishing in third place, or at the very least fourth place. What could be better than that, right?

Winning it all, it appears.

Here are the three trades that I made this week, one of which was completed last night, about 20 minutes before the 10pm ET trade deadline. Recall from the article linked above that I had a very serious need for starting pitching, and I feel I addressed that in two of my trades:

Trade # 1

Rays gets: Lance Lynn StL from Scorpions
John Lackey StL from Scorpions
Ryan Howard Phi from Scorpions
Scorpions gets: J.J. Hoover Cin from Rays
Rafael Betancourt Col from Rays
Kris Bryant ChC from Rays

In this deal, I traded away a $5 S2 Kris Bryant, a $5 S2 J.J. Hoover and a $10 S2 Rafael Betancourt, for a $13 S2 Lance Lynn, a $9 S2 John Lackey and a $22 S2 Ryan Howard. Lynn and Lackey address my need for starting pitching and Howard basically replaces Bryant in my lineup. Before you rant about Howard, remember that this is an NL only league, and he currently ranks in the top 16 in the NL in home runs and top 15 in RBI.

That said, I would not have made this trade without making trade #2 below.

Trade #2

Rays gets: Carlos Martinez StL from Holliston Donkeys
Michael Bourn Atl from Holliston Donkeys
Tyson Ross SD from Holliston Donkeys
Jose Peraza LAD from Holliston Donkeys
Holliston Donkeys gets: Aaron Barrett Was from Rays
J.P. Crawford Phi from Rays
Nolan Arenado Col from Rays
Yusmeiro Petit SF from Rays
Rays round 2 draft pick from Rays

In this deal, I added two more starting pitchers, a stolen base hitter and a prospect who had just been called up. I added a $5 S1 Carlos Martinez, a $7 S1 Tyson Ross, a $9 L1 Michael Bourn and a $5 S2 Jose Peraza. In return I gave up some cheap relievers in Barrett and Petit, a $15 Arenado, a $5 S2 J.P. Crawford and my 2nd round pick in the 2016 farm draft.

Martinez is one of the best young starters in the game, pitching on the best team in baseball, and did I tell you I needed wins? Ross has pitched better than his record indicates this season, as he has pitched to a 2.91 FIP, about 0.50 better than his ERA, and he ranks 9th in the NL in fWAR.

I receive a cheap speed asset in Peraza who could be in the Dodgers starting lineup in some capacity in 2016. That said, he didn't stay on my roster too long.

Trade #3

TRIP gets: Elian Herrera Mil from Rays
Jonathan Lucroy Mil from Rays
Andres Blanco Phi from Rays
Maikel Franco Phi from Rays
Jose Peraza LAD from Rays
Starlin Castro ChC from Rays
Rays gets: Carlos Ruiz Phi from TRIP
Juan Uribe NYM from TRIP
Hunter Pence SF from TRIP
Yoenis Cespedes NYM from TRIP
Jung-ho Kang Pit from TRIP

In this deal, I address some holes in my lineup by adding A $8 S2 Juan Uribe, a $28 S2 Hunter Pence, a $22 L1 Yoenis Cespedes and a $19 Jung-ho Kang, but had to give up Peraza, a $5 S2 Maikel Franco, a $26 Jonathan Lucroy, a $22 Starlin Castro, and two throw-ins: $10 S2 Elian Herrera and a $10 S2 Andres Blanco.

As you can see I needed to add some hitting after giving up Bryant, Arenado and Franco.

After all of these trades, here is a look at my more balanced roster:

Pos

Active Players

Con

Sal

1B

Ryan Howard

S2

22

2B

Daniel Descalso

S2

10

SS

Jung-ho Kang

S2

19

3B

Juan Uribe

S2

8

OF

Matt Kemp

S1

32

OF

Yoenis Cespedes

L1

22

OF

Michael Bourn

S2

9

OF

Hunter Pence

S2

28

OF

Jayson Werth

S2

26

C

Derek Norris

S2

15

C

Carlos Ruiz

S2

6

UT

Khris Davis

0

10

CI

Shane Peterson

S2

10

MI

Ruben Tejada

S2

10

P

Kenley Jansen

S2

24

P

Arodys Vizcaino

S2

6

P

Ken Giles

S1

5

P

Carlos Martinez (08.16, 08.22)

S1

5

P

Jake Arrieta (08.21)

S1

10

P

Tyson Ross (08.19)

S1

7

P

John Lackey (08.21)

S2

9

P

Lance Lynn (08.18)

S2

13

P

Brett Anderson (08.22)

S1

1


I also have a $27 S2 Matt Holliday on the disabled list, but there is no telling if he will be back before the end of the season.

I have to say that I was very close to not making the third trade, but figured I had already gone this far in an effort to win the title, I might as well offer Franco up in an effort to address holes in my lineup.

I currently sit in third place with 74 points, 7 points out of second and 12 points out of first. To win it all, I need the following to happen:

Home runs: I need to out-homer the first place team by 11 home runs the rest of the way to gain a point in home runs. That won't be easy.

Stolen bases: I need to hold off two teams from over-taking me in the stolen base category. I sit in fourth place in the category with 82 stolen bases, with one team at 80 SBs and another at 77 SBs.

Batting Average: I currently sit in 7th place with a .2606 BA. I think I have a chance to gain two points in BA, with the sixth place team at .2611 and the fifth place team at .2637.

Wins: I am tied for fourth with 53 wins, but am one win away from tying for second place at 54. I think with my roster of starters, I can gain three more points in wins. but it won't be easy.

Saves: I have three closers and currently sit in sixth place with 48 saves. I realistically have a chance to gain three more points in saves, as the teams ahead of me have 61, 55 and 53 saves.

ERA: I sit in second place with a 3.213 ERA and the leader, the first place team in the overall standing, has a 3.026 ERA. Over-taking him won't be easy, but is certainly possible.

Should things go my way in each of these categories, I gain 10 points to bring me to 84 points. That said, the currently first place team has 86 points, but I would gain points on him in wins and ERA, so he would drop to 84 as well. The first place team can also lose a point in home runs, 1-2 points in RBI, a point in saves, 1-2 points in wins and a point in ERA. So, he could lose anywhere from 1- 7 points.

Winning the league won't be easy, but there is a chance I can win if things break my way. I feel my roster is much more balanced after these trades and sets me up for a run over the next month and a half.

Did I make the right decision to go all in?

Fantasy Rundown

If you are looking for more fantasy baseball or football coverage, look no further than Fantasy Rundown, which provides links to all of the best fantasy content on the internet.