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Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Mets LHB vs Eddie Butler
The numbers on Butler at the MLB level are small, but he's been hideously ineffective vs LHB in his short MLB career, including on the road away from Coors Field's park effects. In about 200 PA vs lefties, Butler has allowed a 7.47 FIP and .355/.454/.622 slash with a 14.4% walk rate and only an 8.2% strikeout rate. Some Mets lefties that have a good chance at producing are:
Curtis Granderson ($3,900), the Mets leadoff hitter, has hit RHP to an elite 151 wRC+ and .225 ISO in just under 400 PA this year after being reunited with old hitting coach Kevin Long this season. While it might be a narrative to say this is a driving factor, and we can't quantify the type of influence Long has had on Granderson's production, I don't think it's crazy to suspect Long has played a role. Granderson batting leadoff will likely give him extra cracks at Butler.
Lucas Duda ($3,900) has been out the last two days with a sore back, so it's unclear what his status will be today, but if he's in the lineup, a fantasy owner will strongly want to consider using him against Butler. Duda has hit RHP to a 142 wRC+ and .252 ISO in about 800 PA since 2014.
Daniel Murphy ($3,100) has been about 15-20% better than the league average hitter vs RHP the last two seasons and will likely be slotted 2nd in the order, giving him an extra chance at a higher PA total today.
Rookie lefty and top prospect Michael Conforto ($3,000) can be a high upside gamble against Butler; I suspect he will be low owned, and I love his swing and approach at the plate.
Pitcher: Stephen Strasburg ($9,400) vs SF Giants
I realize the danger of relying on a small sample size, and the overall numbers this year on paper don't exactly make this matchup appealing (the Giants have the #1 offense by wRC+ vs RHP and Strasburg is having by far his worst season to date) but just watching Strasburg in his last start as he returned from the DL, he looked like vintage Strasburg, both to the eye test and with data. Strasburg struck out 12 batters in 7 IP, good for a 50% K%, did not walk a batter, threw 75% first pitch strikes and generated a swinging strike total just under 18%. His stuff was filthy, more so than I can remember at any point earlier this year, and I made some .gifs to help support my case better:
Fastball: blowing 98 mph past Nolan Arenado for a swinging strikeout:
Change up: A disgusting, 80 grade change up:
Curve:
Maybe the rest on the DL is something Strasburg's body needed. The Nationals offense faces Ryan Vogelsong, who has been one of the least effective pitchers in baseball, and Strasburg pitches in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the game in San Francisco. This play is an aggressive gamble betting on Strasburg pitching closer to his last start than the previous 13.
You can follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521