Welcome to week 15 of 2 to Watch! To read previous editions of 2 to Watch, check out this link. I'm going to break from the usual format to review how all of the players I've featured so far this season have done before and after my profiles. I want to be transparent and show you all how
good passable I am at identifying players whose stock is going up and those that are on the way down. Consider this my first half grade.
Note: all stats from Fangraphs and current up to 7/8
To review all my picks, I'm going to do a table of hitters and a table of pitchers and how they've done before and after being in 2 to Watch. Normally, I love to provide lots of supporting stats to dig deeper, but today I'm only interested in results and outcomes, not the reasons why, so I'm going to mostly stick to the traditional stats. I included whether I said to buy or sell the player and the grade I give myself for that pick.
Let's start with the hitters I've profiled so far.
|Player||Week on 2tW||Pre/Post 2tW||PA||AVG||OBP||SLG||HR||R||RBI||SB||What I Said||Grade|
|Chris Coghlan||2||Pre||27||0.304||0.385||0.696||2||4||2||1||Buy, Deep Lg||B|
|Eugenio Suarez||13||Pre||40||0.278||0.333||0.417||1||2||6||1||Buy, deep leagues||A|
Now, I'm going to say some stuff about each of these guys. I'll probably skip a few of them if there is nothing to note.
I bumped up his grade from the quarter season review from a C to a B because he has been solid and consistent all year. For deep leagues, he has delivered decent power and speed.
I changed his grade from an A to a C because I don't think I gave him enough credit for his excellent batting average and on-base percentage for a shortstop, despite his middling power production. His power has returned to previous career averages, but his other stats have stuck around, so he's actually a decent shortstop option.
His grade got bumped from a C to an A because he has been simply excellent this year. He has exceeded my expectations and is not slowing down.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz... no changes needed. He's been very good since April.
I downgraded him from an A to a C because his power has not really bounced back like I thought it might. He is doing much better than his terrible April, but is still just a 5th OF in standard leagues. Far from what he used to be.
I still don't know what to think of this guy. His power has returned to his old levels, expectedly, and his 0.356 BABIP won't last, but for a middle infielder, his stats don't look so bad. I'm still sellling, so his grade stays a B.
:( Injured just before his likely callup back to Chicago. We all wait to see if his AAA improvements can translate to the Show.
Panik has kept up almost the exact same pace as before he appeared in these electronic pages in every stat. He's remained an excellent second base option in any league.
I was (and am) worried about Kemp's power being sapped by an unannounced injury. His power is still way down, despite some recent homers. I still don't see a resurgence this season. And that's coming from someone that owns him and stupidly keeps starting him (my entire bench is on the DL, so it's somewhat justified).
He has struggled in the handful of games since he appeared on 2 to Watch and that forced me to give myself a C on him, but that sample size is very small and I still expect him to be a top-10 second baseman the rest of the way.
Wow! What a fortnight for Suarez! While I love the power, it won't last like this. Nonetheless, he's still a great deep league shortstop option the rest of the season.
Now, we march on to the pitchers!
|Player||Week on 2tW||Pre/Post 2tW||IP||ERA||FIP||xFIP||WHIP||K/9||What I Said||Grade|
|Nate Karns||2||Pre||12.2||4.97||4.24||4.63||1.03||7.11||Buy, Deep Lg||A|
Karns has been better than I expected so far and may be forcing his way into standard mixed league company. He has been great in deep leagues. He doesn't show any red flags for regression.
He was bad enough to be demoted, so there's not much for me to say.
Well, he did get the closer's job after appearing in 2 to Watch, but his stats have also declined. His numbers aren't bad for a reliever, but they aren't dominant either. I downgraded him from an A to a B due to his skill decline. He's still a good closer for the rest of the year, just not a top-10 option like I thought he might be.
Well, he's been giving up homers at an absurd 2.29 HR/9 rate, which has destroyed his ERA. His WHIP is still good and he still isn't walking anyone, so if he can stop giving up so many fence-clearers, he could get his ERA back under 3, I believe. His struggles have cost him a shot at the closer's role for now though. Even if Clippard is traded, Scribner is no longer next in line. I gave myself a C because of his steep decline in outcomes.
I upgraded him from a B to an A because at the quarter point, it looked like he might be better than I gave him credit for. Now, he looks just as bad as I originally thought and should not be rostered anywhere.
He has basically kept up his production and cut down on his WHIP. He is due for some regression, but I still think he is under appreciated, so no change to the grade there.
This is an incomplete grade since Iglesias only had one start after 2 to Watch's profile and he has been injured ever since. He's on a rehab assignment, so he should be back soon and we can evaluate him much better then.
He has been as bad as I imagined. It really bothers me when a player is playing over their head and regression refuses to knock them back to earth. Well, regression has been cruel to Bettis and he is definitely not a pitcher you want.
I was torn about Ray back when I originally wrote about him and I kind of still am. I don't like his skill set with low strikeouts, but his results so far have been surprising. His FIP and WHIP show a pitcher with good command and control. His xFIP says he has been very lucky so far. Reality is probably between his FIP and xFIP, but where? He's still someone I would sell, but I wouldn't fault you for taking a chance on him keeping up his current pace a little and ending up with a 3.5 ERA or so. I could only give myself a C here since he has maintained his outcomes.
Ivan Nova and Patrick Corbin
These two have returned from Tommy John since I wrote about them. Nova has had a great ERA with terrible supporting numbers and looks bad. He might be bad all year, so I am giving myself an A for suggest you sell him. Corbin gets an incomplete grade because he only has one mediocre start since coming back. There isn't enough information to determine if I was correct in buying him.
My total GPA: 3.33
Next week, I'm using the all-star break to review my pre-season predictions. It could get ugly. Until then, Tschus!