Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Don't get cute. Start Clayton Kershaw ($12,300) against the vile Mets offense. Kershaw going 8+ innings with 8+ strikeouts, no runs and a win is something very realistic, and that would net a fantasy owner 20ish FD points. Start him in a tournament, 50/50, H2H, league, everywhere. I wrote an article this week detailing why he's probably had extremely bad luck this year and is due for a massive turnaround in run prevention, you can read it here.
As for Kershaw's opponent, consider this: Mets top pitching prospect turned MLB pitcher Noah Syndergaard currently has a higher wRC+ than 6 of the players that will likely be in the lineup against Kershaw tomorrow:
Noah Syndergaard has a higher wRC+ (93) than these notables: Cuddyer Flores Lageras Tejada Plawecki Herrera Mayberry Ceciliani Campbell— Timothy Finnegan (@TimFinn521) July 2, 2015
The fact that a 93 wRC+ is 7% below average makes the point even stronger.
Since Kershaw will cost you a lot, productive low cost/value hitters will need to be found to create a strong lineup. Here are some:
1. Pablo Sandoval ($2,400) is hitting RHP to an excellent 140 wRC+ this year but his dismal performance against lefties is driving his price down. He faces RHP Dan Straily, who has a career 5.42 FIP vs LHB.
2. David Ortiz ($2,900) is close to a mirror image of his teammate Sandoval; his price has dropped because of LHP performance, but he's hit RHP at an elite level (149 wRC+).
3. Lorenzo Cain ($3,300) is hitting LHP to a 163 wRC+ in 100 PA this year and owns a 145 wRC+ in a larger 243 PA sample dating back to the start of last year. He faces soft tossing LHP Tommy Milone, who has a very poor 5.24 FIP vs RHB dating back to the start of 2014.
4. Adam Jones ($3,200) is hitting LHP to a 179 wRC+ this year and owns a 182 wRC+ in 223 PA dating back to the start of 2014. His exit velocity readings have climbed back up this week after what looks like an injury related dropoff, so I am not concerned about his recent shoulder injury hampering his performance at the moment. Via Baseball Savant:
Jones faces John Danks, who has a FIP of roughly 5 over his last two seasons vs RHB, and the matchup takes place in the hitter friendly US Cellular Field.
5. Gerardo Parra ($2,600) has been hitting at the top of the lineup and faces a RHP with a very ugly 6.97 FIP vs LHB this year. Parra is only about an average hitter vs RHP, but the run scoring environment, pitching matchup and lineup slot makes him an appealing low cost option.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.