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Last season, ESPN stat guru Mark Simon popularized a statistic called hard hit rate, which is the % of a player's at bats that end in a hard hit ball. Hard hit balls are classified by video trackers as batted balls with exit velocities of 90+ mph with strong trajectory and contact on the sweet spot of the barrel. This is a different stat than the new FanGraphs hard%, which does not use exit velocity. FG's hard% is also a percentage of balls in play rather than a percentage of at bats.
We want to target hitters with a high % of at bats ending with a hard hit ball and pitchers with a low % of at bats ending with a hard hit ball because the harder a ball is hit, the more likely strong offensive production occurs. The batting average on hard hit balls is over .700. Approximately 100% of home runs, 80% of triples and 70% of doubles are hard hit, while only 30% of singles are hard hit. For hitters, generating hard contact is a way to make run scoring more likely.
The average MLB hitter hits the ball hard in about 15% of his at bats. These hitters have ended the highest percentage of their at bats with a hard hit ball in 2015 (min. 250 ABs):
1. Andrew McCutchen, 24.7%
2. Giancarlo Stanton, 24.4%
3. Bryce Harper, 24.2%
4. Paul Goldschmidt, 24%
5. Freddie Freeman, 23.2%
6. Mike Trout, 22.7%
7. Brian Dozier, 22.4%
8. Prince Fielder, 22.2%
9. JD Martinez, 22%
10. Anthony Rizzo, 22%
11. Miguel Cabrera, 20.9%
12. Nolan Arenado, 20.6%
13. Ryan Howard, 20.3%
14. Jose Bautista, 20.1%
15. Adrian Gonzalez, 20%
16. Albert Pujols, 19.9%
17. Carlos Santana, 19.9%
18. Brandon Crawford, 19.7%
19. Todd Frazier, 19.6%
20. Brandon Moss, 19.6%
21. Joc Pederson, 19.6%
22. George Springer, 19.6%
23. Adrian Beltre, 19.5%
24. Jay Bruce, 19.4%
25. Jason Kipnis, 19.3%
26. Josh Donaldson, 19.2%
27. Luis Valbuena, 19.2%
28. Brandon Belt, 19%
29. Lorenzo Cain, 19%
30. Yoenis Cespedes, 18.8%
31. Lucas Duda, 18.8%
32. Troy Tulowitzki, 18.7%
33. Robinson Cano, 18.5%
34. Torii Hunter, 18%
35. Nelson Cruz, 17.9%
36. Jimmy Paredes, 17.9%
37. Buster Posey, 17.9%
38. David Ortiz, 17.8%
39. Chris Davis, 17.7%
40. Mookie Betts, 17.6%