:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46706266/usa-today-8675103.0.jpg)
Tim Finnegan and I have written a lot about hard hit % data and exit velocity for hitters over the past few months, but today I am going to look at the Hard Hit % data, courtesy of FanGraphs, for starting pitchers. I have been using this data over the last few weeks in determining who I should target in trade talks in my various leagues, in addition to the standard pitcher data like strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and the advanced ERA stats.
Below is a table pulled from FanGraphs sorted by Hard%, and you can see some of the top starting pitchers in the game this season are inducing weak contact, or a low hard hit%. As you can see in the table, most of the starters who have induced the weakest contact this season, or the lowest hard hit % are ground ball pitchers. Of the 17 starters with a Hard % less than 25%, nine of them are inducing ground balls at a 50% rate or higher.
Astros starter Dallas Kuechel is proving that his performance last season was no fluke and has established himself as an ace starting pitcher, in my eyes. Not only has he induced the weakest contact, but he also has induced ground balls at a 64% rate.
Athletics starter Sonny Gray has had a built upon his 2014 breakout season, and part of the reason is the low hard hit%, along with a lower walk and home run per nine rate. He and Keuchel are two of the favorites for the American League Cy Young award through the first three months of the season.
If you are looking to make a deal in your leagues and don't want to give up much, I would target some of the starters who are inducing hard hit rates in the 25 - 30% range, including Orioles starters Wei-Yin Chen and Ubaldo Jimenez, Dodgers starter Brett Anderson and Giants starter Chris Heston. All are quietly having very good seasons on the bump which can be explained high ground ball rates and weak contact rates.
|
Name |
Team |
BABIP |
GB/FB |
LD% |
GB% |
FB% |
Soft% |
Med% |
Hard% |
|
Dallas Keuchel |
Astros |
0.252 |
4.26 |
21.30% |
63.70% |
15.00% |
25.30% |
55.00% |
19.80% |
|
Mike Pelfrey |
0.322 |
2.30 |
21.00% |
55.10% |
23.90% |
19.20% |
59.30% |
21.50% |
|
|
Garrett Richards |
0.265 |
1.83 |
15.50% |
54.70% |
29.90% |
21.60% |
55.70% |
22.70% |
|
|
Francisco Liriano |
0.247 |
2.03 |
20.10% |
53.50% |
26.40% |
29.40% |
47.80% |
22.80% |
|
|
Sonny Gray |
Athletics |
0.260 |
1.77 |
14.80% |
54.40% |
30.80% |
20.30% |
56.90% |
22.80% |
|
Felix Hernandez |
0.263 |
2.45 |
18.20% |
58.10% |
23.70% |
20.00% |
57.00% |
23.10% |
|
|
Chris Sale |
0.288 |
1.18 |
19.80% |
43.30% |
36.90% |
22.90% |
53.90% |
23.20% |
|
|
Jesse Hahn |
Athletics |
0.273 |
2.30 |
24.50% |
52.60% |
22.90% |
19.70% |
57.00% |
23.30% |
|
Scott Kazmir |
Athletics |
0.265 |
1.38 |
21.50% |
45.60% |
33.00% |
17.90% |
58.80% |
23.30% |
|
Clay Buchholz |
0.326 |
1.65 |
20.80% |
49.40% |
29.90% |
19.00% |
57.60% |
23.40% |
|
|
Wade Miley |
Red Sox |
0.310 |
1.45 |
17.80% |
48.70% |
33.60% |
16.90% |
59.70% |
23.40% |
|
Lance Lynn |
0.310 |
1.11 |
21.30% |
41.40% |
37.30% |
21.00% |
55.60% |
23.40% |
|
|
Jose Quintana |
White Sox |
0.326 |
1.50 |
22.70% |
46.30% |
31.00% |
18.00% |
58.20% |
23.80% |
|
Tyson Ross |
0.339 |
3.58 |
20.30% |
62.30% |
17.40% |
20.70% |
55.40% |
23.90% |
|
|
Jake Arrieta |
0.291 |
1.85 |
23.20% |
49.80% |
26.90% |
20.00% |
55.70% |
24.30% |
|
|
Adam Warren |
0.262 |
1.26 |
20.50% |
44.40% |
35.10% |
20.80% |
54.60% |
24.60% |
|
|
Chris Heston |
Giants |
0.296 |
2.51 |
21.90% |
55.80% |
22.30% |
20.10% |
55.00% |
24.90% |
|
Wei-Yin Chen |
Orioles |
0.248 |
0.96 |
17.70% |
40.30% |
42.00% |
21.40% |
53.50% |
25.10% |
|
Carlos Martinez |
Cardinals |
0.289 |
2.23 |
19.50% |
55.60% |
24.90% |
21.80% |
53.00% |
25.20% |
|
Yovani Gallardo |
0.265 |
1.71 |
18.50% |
51.40% |
30.10% |
16.60% |
58.00% |
25.40% |
|
|
Jeff Samardzija |
White Sox |
0.323 |
1.07 |
23.00% |
39.80% |
37.30% |
18.10% |
56.20% |
25.80% |
|
Ubaldo Jimenez |
Orioles |
0.310 |
1.68 |
25.60% |
46.60% |
27.80% |
19.70% |
54.40% |
26.00% |
|
Gerrit Cole |
Pirates |
0.311 |
2.03 |
21.80% |
52.40% |
25.90% |
21.10% |
52.80% |
26.10% |
|
Miguel Gonzalez |
Orioles |
0.253 |
1.06 |
22.90% |
39.70% |
37.40% |
18.20% |
55.70% |
26.10% |
|
Brett Anderson |
Dodgers |
0.322 |
3.60 |
13.20% |
67.90% |
18.90% |
24.00% |
49.70% |
26.30% |
|
Cole Hamels |
0.276 |
1.60 |
20.60% |
48.80% |
30.60% |
24.40% |
49.40% |
26.30% |
|
|
Anibal Sanchez |
0.257 |
1.06 |
20.50% |
40.90% |
38.60% |
19.70% |
54.10% |
26.30% |
|
|
R.A. Dickey |
0.273 |
1.23 |
22.90% |
42.60% |
34.60% |
19.30% |
54.40% |
26.40% |
|
|
Jacob deGrom |
0.253 |
1.17 |
20.90% |
42.60% |
36.50% |
19.20% |
54.20% |
26.60% |
|
|
Gio Gonzalez |
0.345 |
2.58 |
21.50% |
56.50% |
21.90% |
16.60% |
56.60% |
26.80% |
|
|
Max Scherzer |
Nationals |
0.252 |
0.70 |
17.70% |
33.80% |
48.50% |
23.00% |
50.20% |
26.80% |
|
Zack Greinke |
Dodgers |
0.243 |
1.36 |
18.80% |
46.80% |
34.40% |
21.90% |
51.30% |
26.90% |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
Dodgers |
0.306 |
2.00 |
23.40% |
51.00% |
25.50% |
20.40% |
52.50% |
27.10% |
|
Collin McHugh |
Astros |
0.306 |
1.28 |
18.50% |
45.80% |
35.80% |
20.50% |
52.20% |
27.30% |
|
Mike Leake |
0.282 |
2.24 |
24.50% |
52.20% |
23.30% |
15.60% |
57.10% |
27.40% |
|
|
Kyle Hendricks |
Cubs |
0.299 |
1.53 |
17.90% |
49.60% |
32.50% |
19.90% |
52.70% |
27.40% |
|
Johnny Cueto |
Reds |
0.227 |
1.21 |
20.50% |
43.40% |
36.00% |
20.70% |
51.80% |
27.50% |
|
Kyle Gibson |
Twins |
0.270 |
2.15 |
21.30% |
53.70% |
25.00% |
18.60% |
53.80% |
27.60% |
|
Aaron Harang |
Phillies |
0.280 |
0.79 |
18.90% |
35.70% |
45.40% |
15.60% |
56.80% |
27.70% |
|
John Danks |
White Sox |
0.321 |
0.90 |
21.40% |
37.10% |
41.50% |
17.60% |
54.60% |
27.80% |
|
Matt Harvey |
Mets |
0.273 |
1.14 |
18.40% |
43.50% |
38.20% |
21.10% |
51.00% |
27.90% |
|
Jordan Zimmermann |
Nationals |
0.314 |
1.11 |
22.50% |
40.70% |
36.80% |
19.10% |
52.90% |
27.90% |
|
Corey Kluber |
0.338 |
1.46 |
22.60% |
45.90% |
31.40% |
16.30% |
55.50% |
28.20% |
|
|
Shelby Miller |
0.258 |
1.63 |
18.30% |
50.70% |
31.00% |
21.30% |
50.50% |
28.30% |
|
|
Jesse Chavez |
Athletics |
0.297 |
1.19 |
23.00% |
41.80% |
35.10% |
17.80% |
53.90% |
28.30% |
|
Jason Hammel |
Cubs |
0.254 |
0.96 |
23.20% |
37.70% |
39.10% |
20.10% |
51.60% |
28.30% |
|
Jeremy Guthrie |
0.313 |
0.91 |
27.00% |
34.80% |
38.10% |
18.30% |
53.40% |
28.30% |
|
|
Michael Wacha |
Cardinals |
0.272 |
1.58 |
21.80% |
47.90% |
30.30% |
19.00% |
52.60% |
28.40% |
|
Chris Archer |
0.284 |
1.43 |
22.30% |
45.70% |
32.00% |
21.50% |
50.20% |
28.40% |
|
|
Jeff Locke |
Pirates |
0.314 |
2.12 |
22.70% |
52.50% |
24.80% |
23.30% |
48.10% |
28.60% |
|
Trevor Bauer |
Indians |
0.263 |
0.84 |
17.50% |
37.50% |
44.90% |
22.40% |
49.00% |
28.60% |
|
J.A. Happ |
Mariners |
0.329 |
1.23 |
23.70% |
42.10% |
34.20% |
18.90% |
52.40% |
28.70% |
|
Danny Salazar |
Indians |
0.308 |
1.22 |
18.50% |
44.80% |
36.60% |
21.50% |
49.80% |
28.70% |
|
David Price |
Tigers |
0.301 |
1.01 |
24.90% |
37.70% |
37.40% |
16.30% |
54.90% |
28.80% |
|
Jered Weaver |
Angels |
0.275 |
0.81 |
19.10% |
36.20% |
44.70% |
20.50% |
50.60% |
28.90% |
|
Alex Wood |
Braves |
0.340 |
1.52 |
22.70% |
46.60% |
30.70% |
16.20% |
54.80% |
29.00% |
|
Chase Anderson |
0.270 |
1.26 |
22.10% |
43.50% |
34.40% |
14.40% |
56.50% |
29.10% |
|
|
Jon Niese |
Mets |
0.301 |
2.29 |
21.10% |
55.00% |
24.00% |
19.20% |
51.70% |
29.20% |
|
Michael Pineda |
Yankees |
0.347 |
1.64 |
19.70% |
49.80% |
30.40% |
17.00% |
53.40% |
29.60% |
|
Madison Bumgarner |
Giants |
0.289 |
1.11 |
23.10% |
40.40% |
36.50% |
17.70% |
52.70% |
29.70% |
|
Tim Hudson |
Giants |
0.307 |
2.81 |
21.30% |
58.10% |
20.60% |
14.60% |
55.60% |
29.80% |
|
Bartolo Colon |
Mets |
0.309 |
1.03 |
19.60% |
40.80% |
39.60% |
18.20% |
51.90% |
29.90% |
|
A.J. Burnett |
Pirates |
0.316 |
2.29 |
21.90% |
54.40% |
23.70% |
17.80% |
52.10% |
30.10% |
|
Andrew Cashner |
Padres |
0.312 |
1.41 |
19.30% |
47.20% |
33.40% |
15.00% |
54.80% |
30.20% |
|
Anthony DeSclafani |
Reds |
0.289 |
1.29 |
20.80% |
44.60% |
34.50% |
21.10% |
48.70% |
30.20% |
|
Jon Lester |
Cubs |
0.314 |
1.64 |
23.30% |
47.60% |
29.10% |
20.50% |
48.80% |
30.70% |
|
CC Sabathia |
Yankees |
0.332 |
1.27 |
22.20% |
43.50% |
34.30% |
14.60% |
54.70% |
30.70% |
|
Taijuan Walker |
Mariners |
0.299 |
0.92 |
19.80% |
38.50% |
41.70% |
17.40% |
51.90% |
30.70% |
|
Nick Martinez |
Rangers |
0.286 |
1.29 |
23.10% |
43.30% |
33.60% |
14.30% |
54.80% |
30.80% |
|
Nathan Eovaldi |
Yankees |
0.353 |
1.93 |
24.00% |
50.00% |
26.00% |
19.10% |
50.00% |
30.90% |
|
Jimmy Nelson |
0.292 |
1.59 |
19.90% |
49.20% |
30.90% |
18.40% |
50.70% |
30.90% |
|
|
Matt Shoemaker |
Angels |
0.295 |
0.95 |
17.90% |
40.00% |
42.10% |
18.80% |
50.20% |
31.00% |
|
Rubby de la Rosa |
Diamondbacks |
0.296 |
1.67 |
20.30% |
49.80% |
29.80% |
13.40% |
55.60% |
31.10% |
|
Drew Hutchison |
Blue Jays |
0.358 |
1.16 |
25.20% |
40.20% |
34.60% |
22.60% |
46.40% |
31.10% |
|
Matt Garza |
Brewers |
0.317 |
1.42 |
22.70% |
45.30% |
32.00% |
17.30% |
51.50% |
31.30% |
|
John Lackey |
Cardinals |
0.294 |
1.24 |
19.80% |
44.50% |
35.80% |
18.20% |
50.60% |
31.30% |
|
Julio Teheran |
Braves |
0.297 |
1.12 |
25.80% |
39.10% |
35.10% |
19.50% |
49.20% |
31.30% |
|
Rick Porcello |
Red Sox |
0.331 |
1.29 |
21.30% |
44.40% |
34.40% |
19.00% |
49.20% |
31.80% |
|
Phil Hughes |
Twins |
0.291 |
0.82 |
24.50% |
34.00% |
41.40% |
19.00% |
49.20% |
31.80% |
|
Dan Haren |
0.252 |
0.67 |
19.80% |
32.30% |
47.90% |
17.80% |
50.50% |
31.80% |
|
|
Carlos Carrasco |
Indians |
0.340 |
1.49 |
19.30% |
48.30% |
32.30% |
16.70% |
51.30% |
32.00% |
|
Alfredo Simon |
Tigers |
0.305 |
1.19 |
23.30% |
41.60% |
35.10% |
18.00% |
50.00% |
32.10% |
|
Mark Buehrle |
Blue Jays |
0.278 |
1.58 |
20.50% |
48.70% |
30.90% |
16.10% |
51.60% |
32.40% |
|
James Shields |
Padres |
0.312 |
1.32 |
21.20% |
44.90% |
33.90% |
16.70% |
50.80% |
32.40% |
|
Ryan Vogelsong |
Giants |
0.265 |
1.17 |
19.30% |
43.60% |
37.10% |
18.80% |
48.80% |
32.40% |
|
Edinson Volquez |
Royals |
0.266 |
1.40 |
20.50% |
46.40% |
33.10% |
14.10% |
53.10% |
32.80% |
|
Hector Santiago |
Angels |
0.234 |
0.57 |
17.70% |
29.80% |
52.50% |
16.00% |
51.20% |
32.80% |
|
C.J. Wilson |
Angels |
0.281 |
1.29 |
21.20% |
44.40% |
34.40% |
15.30% |
51.60% |
33.10% |
|
Jeremy Hellickson |
Diamondbacks |
0.309 |
1.12 |
19.90% |
42.20% |
37.80% |
15.80% |
50.30% |
33.90% |
|
Nate Karns |
Rays |
0.280 |
1.28 |
21.30% |
44.10% |
34.60% |
19.50% |
46.20% |
34.30% |
|
Kyle Kendrick |
0.287 |
1.00 |
22.60% |
38.70% |
38.70% |
15.10% |
50.60% |
34.40% |
|
|
Kyle Lohse |
Brewers |
0.314 |
0.98 |
25.00% |
37.20% |
37.80% |
18.00% |
47.60% |
34.50% |
|
Colby Lewis |
Rangers |
0.302 |
0.76 |
18.30% |
35.20% |
46.40% |
14.20% |
51.30% |
34.50% |
|
Tom Koehler |
Marlins |
0.260 |
1.24 |
17.80% |
45.50% |
36.70% |
17.30% |
47.50% |
35.20% |
|
Mike Fiers |
Brewers |
0.318 |
0.96 |
20.80% |
38.80% |
40.50% |
19.30% |
43.70% |
37.00% |