Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Pitcher-Lance McCullers vs. Kansas City Royals, $6,700
Pitching is ugly today, so while this matchup is not ideal (KC has the lowest K% vs RHP), McCullers is probably going to be my play because of his ability to generate high strikeout totals and prevent runs. KC's contact offense will bring McCullers' strikeout upside down, but he has a 2.44 FIP/3.36 xFIP through 46 big league innings this year and dominated AA before being called up. Another appealing aspect of playing McCullers is his low price, which provides salary relief to load up elsewhere.
I was also intrigued by his pitching opposition, Joe Blanton (because of an increase in velocity, swings and misses, and ground balls, plus a strong FIP), but that fizzled out when I saw his opp. hard contact rate. 40% of his batted balls are being tracked as "hard" hit, which would be 2nd worst in baseball if Blanton had enough innings to qualify. It seems too risky to me to start Blanton against a very potent Astros offense that now features Carlos Correa, one of the best young players in baseball. The start has blowup risk written all over it.
2B- Rougned Odor vs Bud Norris, $2,600
I tweeted this out yesterday morning:
#Rangers Rougned Odor since being called back up: 10.5% K%, .242 ISO, 179 wRC+. This after tearing up AAA to a 183 wRC+ and .287 ISO— Timothy Finnegan (@TimFinn521) June 28, 2015
Even better, Odor was moved up to 2nd in the order yesterday and should probably stay there as long as he keeps hitting. Odor is a fantastic young talent, and while he won't continue to hit 80% better than league average, he's a good bet to remain productive. Odor faces Bud Norris, who has a poor 4.69 FIP vs LHB in 113 IP since the start of last season.
OF- Mike Trout vs CC Sabathia, $5,000
If you're going to pay for Mike Trout, this is one of the better times to do it. I wrote an article titled "don't give up on CC Sabathia just yet" earlier this year because of strong peripherals at the time, but he's long past his expiration date now. CC's FIP vs RHB is a brutal 5.50 and 87% of his batted balls against RHB are either medium or hard hit, which is bottom 10 among starters. CC is one of the great pitchers of his era, but his career as a starter is coming to a sad end. The main thing preventing him from becoming a LOOGY out of the pen is his salary.
Dodgers LHB vs Allen Webster
It's a small sample of 52 IP, but Webster owns a 6.20 career FIP vs LHB and he faces the #1 offense vs RHP. The Dodgers get a huge park upgrade in Chase Field, and three of their best hitters vs RHP are priced very low:
Andre Ethier ($2,200) is the best punt play on the board tomorrow. He's hit RHP to a 134 wRC+/.220 ISO this year and owns similar career #'s vs them.
Yasmani Grandal ($2,800) has hit RHP to a very strong 154 wRC+/.236 ISO in 188 PA this year.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,000) has hit RHP about as well as Grandal, posting a 159 wRC+/.239 ISO in 243 PA this year.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.