Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day, and check the weather to make sure your players won't get rained out of their game.
Masahiro Tanaka vs. Miami Marlins, $9,600
I love this matchup tomorrow. Tanaka gets a huge park and league upgrade facing the Marlins down in Miami. The Marlins have had horrific results vs RHP this year; their 82 wRC+ is 2nd worst, their .107 ISO is dead last, and their 20.3% K% is 11th highest. And Tanaka has looked like vintage Tanaka since returning from the DL, helped by a significant rise in velocity. Opposing pitcher Tom Koehler makes the matchup very winnable.
Hitters: cheap options for salary relief
C- Kevin Plawecki vs. Mark Buehrle, $2,300
Plawecki can be a sneaky punt play at C for today if he's in the lineup. The Mets have said they want to limit Travis d'Arnaud's workload as they ease him back into the majors from a broken hand, and d'Arnaud has caught 20 innings in the last two days after catching 11 innings in Saturday's extra innings game. Plawecki's numbers look ugly, but here's why I like him so much:
Kevin Plawecki leads major league catchers in % of at bats ending in a hard hit ball (22%). It's amazing that his numbers are so poor— Timothy Finnegan (@TimFinn521) June 14, 2015
Hard hit balls on average go for hits 70% of the time, so it appears Plawecki is hitting into some rough luck. Plawecki will face LHP Mark Buehrle if he plays, who is 5th worst among SP in hard contact allowed. 19.3% of his opponents' at bats have ended in a hard hit ball. A pitcher who allows a lot of hard contact facing a hitter who generates a lot of hard contact is a recipe for success, especially considering the platoon split. Scouting reports say that Plawecki hits lefties very well, and he's had some rotten luck vs LHP this year. He has a .316 ISO, he ends 26.3% of his at bats with a hard hit ball, but he only has a .143 BABIP and 102 wRC+. The numbers scream bad luck/good process. I especially like Plawecki in a tournament format where I expect him to be virtually unowned.
3B- Pablo Sandoval vs. Williams Perez, $2,300
Sandoval is an awesome salary relief play vs RHP. The price drop reflects his putrid LHP performance, but he's hit RHP to a 142 wRC+ this year, excluding Sunday's two hit day. ZiPS projects a 4.31 ERA from Perez the rest of the way.
OF- J.D. Martinez vs Jon Moscot,
ZiPS projects an ERA just under 5 for Moscot the rest of the season, and the fact that he isn't a swing and miss pitcher means the Tigers should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play where good things can happen. Martinez is priced affordably and has a 139 wRC+/.216 ISO in his last 550 PA vs RHP dating back to the start of 2014.
1B- Adam Lind vs. Edinson Volquez, $2,700
Lind is a career 129 wRC+/.217 ISO hitter vs RHP with it at 145 wRC+/.220 ISO this year. Since the start of 2014, Volquez has a below average 4.30 FIP vs LHB. Miller Park is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball.
Thought on Bryce Harper for this week
Harper got drilled on his left knee by a 95 mph fastball in Saturday's game and didn't play Sunday. He might be healthy enough to play tomorrow+this week, but I'm a little concerned about a temporary drop in production. Lucas Duda got drilled in his knee by a pitch 2 weeks ago and his average exit velocity on batted balls dropped by 5 mph in the 40 or so PA directly afterwards. His power and production dropped off significantly as a result (.034 ISO/37 wRC+). A hitter's swing comes through his lower body, and if the knee is barking, there's a good chance they won't be the same at the plate. It might be prudent to hold off on paying extreme prices for Harper just for a few days until his at bats can be observed and his batted balls can be read. It might take a week or two before his knee is back to 100%.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.