Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day.
P- Jordan Zimmermann vs. Miami Marlins, $8,900
I tweeted this out on Friday:
Jordan Zimmermann's last two starts: 10.4% swing strike%, 22.5% K%, 2% BB%, 1.73 FIP, 2.96 xFIP. Anyone still worried?— Timothy Finnegan (@TimFinn521) May 1, 2015
Zimmermann faces the Marlins, who have the 4th lowest home run total in baseball with just 14 team HR and the 9th highest K% in baseball at 21.5%. They also have the 4th lowest isolated slugging vs. RHP at a paltry .106. The Marlins throw David Phelps, who I am not a long term believer in. Zimmermann will be in good position to get the 4 point win in this matchup and combine it with strong run prevention and above average strikeouts. I think Zimmermann provides good value at this price.
OF- Andre Ethier vs. Kyle Lohse, $2,800
After an unusually mediocre 2014 season against RHP, Ethier is back to punishing them, posting a wRC+ over 200 in 2015. Ethier is a career 140 wRC+ hitter vs RHP, and he will be in great position to produce against Kyle Lohse today in Miller Park. Lohse owns a hideous 5.97 FIP in 2015, and he's been getting hit hard: 21.2% of his opponents at bats have ended in a hard hit ball, 20th worst in baseball. I expect to be playing Ethier at this excellent value against most RHP while there's room for him in the Dodgers outfield.
The Rockies have returned home, so it's time to examine prices on Diamondbacks and Rockies hitters for tomorrow.
Carlos Gonzalez is still priced low at $3,600 because of bad outcomes this year, but I fully expect him to turn it around soon because of high exit velocities off his bat combined with a low BABIP.
Paul Goldschmidt is being priced at $6,100, which is far and away the most expensive price for a position player tomorrow. I would look elsewhere at this expense. Freddie Freeman against average to below average RHP is a matchup I always like playing because Freeman is not usually priced high ($3,400 tomorrow) and he's hit RHP to a 156 wRC+ in a 1000 PA sample since 2013. I'll take Freeman at $3,400 over Goldschmidt at $6,100.
Chris Owings has hit 2nd in the order at times. If he's hitting in front of Paul Goldschmidt tomorrow, he becomes very playable at $2,800. Owings hasn't produced at the plate yet this year, but he carries some offensive upside the rest of the way.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.