clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Exit velocity and trajectory: hard hit% leaders on Memorial Day: Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Brian Dozier

New, 1 comment
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Note: this is a different statistic than FanGraphs' new hard%

Last season, ESPN stat guru Mark Simon popularized a statistic called hard hit rate (HH%). It's a stat that combines measures like exit velocity and trajectory, telling us which hitters are ending their at bats with good process. Throughout the 2015 season I will be posting some notable performances in hard hit%, both hitters and pitchers, on a weekly basis. The stat unfortunately isn't available to the public yet, so I'm going to post out as much as I'm allowed to by the video tracking service that provides it to us.

For those who haven't heard of it, hard hit% is the % of a player's at bats that end in a hard hit ball. Hard hit balls are classified by video trackers as batted balls with exit velocities of 90+ mph with strong trajectory and contact on the sweet spot of the barrel.

The baseball industry is more interested in measures like exit velocity and trajectory than outcomes in trying to predict future performance for players, so I think this is the direction the fantasy game needs to go, too. Hard hit% bridges that gap.

We want to target hitters with a high hard hit% and pitchers with a low hard hit% because the harder a ball is hit, the more likely strong offensive production occurs. The batting average on hard hit balls is over .700. Approximately 100% of home runs, 80% of triples and 70% of doubles are hard hit, while only 30% of singles are hard hit.

The stat can help give us a better idea of the process behind a hitter's production, and can show which players may be hitting into either good or bad luck.

Hard hit% needs to be combined with other statistics to paint a complete picture of player evaluation, but it's an excellent tool by itself to point us towards players to target.

The average MLB hitter hits the ball hard in about 15% of his at bats.

Top 40 (min. 100 at bats)

1. Freddie Freeman, 26.7%

2. Paul Goldschmidt, 25.6%

3. Brian Dozier, 24.7%

4. Brandon Belt, 24.4%

5. Prince Fielder, 23.9%

6. Bryce Harper, 23.8%

7. Adrian Gonzalez, 23.7%

8. Giancarlo Stanton, 23.4%

9. Miguel Cabrera, 23.3%

10. Lucas Duda, 22.3%

11. Brandon Crawford, 21.9%

12. Cameron Maybin, 21.9%

13. Derek Norris, 21.9%

14. Joc Pederson, 21.6%

15. Ryan Howard, 21.5%

16. Denard Span, 21.1%

17. Stephen Vogt, 21.0%

18. Conor Gillaspie, 20.8%

19. Kyle Seager, 20.8%

20. Yasmani Grandal, 20.4%

21. Matt Carpenter, 20.3%

22. Andrew McCutchen, 20.3%

23. Brandon Moss, 20.3%

24. Marcus Semien, 20.1%

25. Adrian Beltre, 20%

26. Logan Morrison, 20%

27. Jimmy Paredes, 20%

28. Colby Rasmus, 20%

29. Carlos Santana, 20%

30. Mark Teixeira, 19.9%

31. Starling Marte, 19.5%

32. Devon Travis, 19.5%

33. Lorenzo Cain, 19.4%

34. Anthony Rizzo, 19.4%

35. Mark Trumbo, 19.4%

36. David DeJesus, 19.1%

37. Russell Martin, 19.1%

38. Nolan Arenado, 19%

39. Jay Bruce, 19%

40. Mike Trout, 19%