Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day.
P- Carlos Carrasco vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $8,700
Carrasco's peripherals scream ace. These are his numbers since the start of last year: 150 IP, 2.77 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 2.55 xFIP, 27.4% K%, 5.4% BB%, 63 FIP-, 13.1% swinging strike%. His numbers strictly as a starter are even more impressive. In 14 starts since the Indians moved him to the rotation full time last August, Carrasco has a 1.91 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 2.05 xFIP, 30.7% K%, 4.3% BB%, 46 FIP-, and a 13.9% swinging strike%. Carrasco's FanDuel price is down because of a bad outcome last time out (and possibly because of concern over getting hit in the face with a line drive), but I think the price drop to these levels is unwarranted. It's best to evaluate players based more on process than on outcomes, and 2015 Carrasco is one of those guys that fits good process/bad outcome like a glove.
His 4.60 ERA so far this year is incredibly unlucky and does not accurately portray his skill set at all. Carrasco's FIP sits at 1.83, third best in baseball, and his xFIP sits at an even better 1.60, best in baseball. His hard hit% against is 11%, well above MLB average of 15%. Carrasco has been primarily victimized by a wildly unsustainable .436 BABIP and to a lesser degree a below average 68% strand rate. A pitcher with Carrasco's elite strikeout totals and production should be able to maintain an above average strand rate because he misses more bats. Average strand rate sits around 73%, and Carrasco's was about 76% last season.
Carrasco is a monster, and getting him at this price is a bargain in my eyes.
OF- Andre Ethier vs. Rubby De La Rosa, $2,700
Ethier is back to mashing RHP after having an unusually mediocre performance against them in 2014. Ethier is a career 139 wRC+ hitter vs. RHP, and he's hitting them to a 186 wRC+ this year with 3 HR, a 12.5% BB% and an OPS over 1.000. He will likely be receiving regular playing time with the injuries to the Dodgers outfield, and Rubby De La Rosa has been average to below average this year, posting an ERA- of 118 and a FIP- of 98.
SS- Marcus Semien vs. Colby Lewis, $3,100
I generally like to match up hitters who generate a lot of hard contact with pitchers who give up a lot of hard contact. Hard contact gives a hitter the best chance at getting the results you want and racking up fantasy points. This is a matchup that accomplishes that. Semien's hard hit% is an excellent 25% in 2015; this means that one out of every four of Semien's at bats is ending in a hard hit ball, which is in the top 20 among all hitters in the game so far. Lewis, on the other hand, gives up a lot of hard contact. He's been at the bottom of the league both last year and this year at about 20%. The matchup takes place in Arlington, and although the wind tunnel there has largely been neutralized by new construction, it's still a much better place to hit than Oakland. Shortstop is generally an albatross of a position, so finding quality matchups at good prices at the position can give you better chances of winning.
1B- Freddie Freeman vs. Anthony DeSclafani, $3,500
Freeman has destroyed RHP in recent years (wRC+s of 164, 150 and 168 vs them since '13). This is a really small sample size, but DeScalafani has huge platoon splits so far in his 59 IP (5.12 FIP vs LHB, 2.44 FIP vs RHB). Freeman leads baseball in hard hit%, and he's being priced as the 9th 1B, which I think is too low.
OF- Seth Smith vs. Samuel Deduno, $2,400
I'm a huge fan of the value you get with Seth Smith against RHP. Smith has usually been slotted in the 1 or 2 hole and owns a career wRC+ of 123 vs RHP, with it at about 140 this year. Hitting in front of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager gives him an excellent chance to score runs when he gets on base.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.