/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46229556/usa-today-8529485.0.jpg)
Reminder: Always double check the lineup card before rosters lock to make sure that a player you've chosen to roster is playing that day.
P- Gerrit Cole vs. Chicago Cubs, $8,800
Cole is budding into a legitimate ace. He's always had monster stuff and now he's piecing everything together. He is missing bats at an elite level (12.1% swinging strike%, 26.7% K%), he's preventing runs at an elite level (ERA- of 62), and his FIP- (62) and GB% (62%) are both elite as well. The Cubs have some swing and miss in their lineup; they have the 2nd highest K% in baseball at 23%, which will amplify Cole's strikeout chances. I'm a big fan of playing Cole at this price, and I expect that number to rise soon, so take advantage of this value while you can.
2B- Rickie Weeks vs. Wandy Rodriguez, $2,200
Weeks is being priced unbelievably low on Fanduel vs LHP. He has a career 127 wRC+ vs them with it at 142 last year. ZiPS projects a 4.90 ERA for Wandy the rest of the way, and the matchup is being played in Arlington, a much better park to hit in than SafeCo. Weeks is probably the best bang for the buck play tomorrow at this price.
Rockies hitters in Chase Field vs. Josh Collmenter
Chase Field is the second highest ballpark above sea level behind Coors Field, so the Rockies hitters will be in great position to do damage despite being on the road. Josh Collmenter is an average to below average pitcher who doesn't miss bats, so a lot of balls should be put into play where good things can happen. Most specifically:
OF- Carlos Gonzalez, $3,200
I tweeted this out last night:
Carlos Gonzalez has the 10th best avg. exit velocity in MLB at 94.3 mph. He has 0 infield fly balls. That .218 BABIP is wildly unsustainable
— Timothy Finnegan (@TimFinn521) April 28, 2015
CarGo's price has dropped a lot because of poor outcomes, but the process behind those outcomes isn't so bad. He is going to start producing once his BABIP normalizes, and his price probably won't get much lower than this. Take advantage of the strong value here before that happens.
1B (early)- Adam Lind vs. Michael Lorenzen, $3,300
In 172 career minor league IP, Lorenzen owns a 4.52 FIP. Lind has hit RHP to a 164 wRC+ and 150 wRC+ in his last 2 season sample, and it's easy to hit home runs to RF in Great American Ballpark.
1B- (late) Lucas Duda vs. Mat Latos, $3,700
Duda is quietly developing into one of the most productive hitters in baseball. He has crushed RHP since he won the 1B job last April, hitting them to about a 160 wRC+. Mat Latos is last in MLB in opp. hard hit% at about 28%; this means that Latos has given up more hard hit balls per at bat than any pitcher in the game to this point. This matchup looks to be a recipe for hard contact, which puts Duda in a great position to be productive.
Follow me on Twitter at @TimFinn521, I usually tweet out more good options as lineups are released.